Last of the two quieter days
Better schedule from tomorrow
When the week starts to unfold
Messages back to normal then
Little interest in today's cards
There are 2 tokenistic previews
But backing off completely today
Sending early to nick more time
For a better schedule tomorrow
Preview Selections
Huntingdon 1.30
Mixedwave 100/30
Each Way
Huntingdon 2.30
£8.00 Win Bet Master Malcolm 3/1-100/30
£2.00 Win Bet Keplerian 4/1
Yesterday's Summary
Attempts to bounce back failed
Nothing from the two previews
First races all we could muster
Was the saver bet coming 2nd
The Wolverhampton bet failed
Market worried me beforehand
Both horses irrationally weak
Result surprised less after that
No idea why Battle Point failed
But someone knew a lot more
And we ended empty handed
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Huntingdon 1.30
11/4 Le Tueur, Spotty Dog, 4/1 Mixedwave
6/1 Aikenbreakinheart 10/1 Doyens De Ante
10/1 Drop Him In, 14/1 Holerday Ridge
20/1 Methodtothemagic, 25/1 El Hageb Rose.
Handicap Chase 2m 7f
Many of these chasers
Are just work in progress
Early in their chase careers
Need to show more but may do
Several of these are in form
And have good recent races
Chances are one might win
The favourite may be the one
But nervous about his chance
LE TUEUR is an 8 year old
He won over 3m 5f last time
Now drops down 5f in distance
And only 11 days after his win
That doesn't sound easy to do
Only 6 horses have ever tried
Coming back within 13 days
Having won over 3m 5f or more
None of the 6 horses managed it
Inconclusive but It does worry me
The percentage call here
MIXEDWAVE each way at 100/30
Unexposed in form 6 year old
Looks very fairly treated off 88
Selection
MIXEDWAVE 100/30
Each Way
Huntingdon 2.30
11/4 Master Malcolm, 7/2 Keplerian, 5/1 Bitasweetsymphony
8/1 Abaya Du Mathan, Alberic, Zuckerberg, 10/1 Caro Des Flos
10/1 Uberman, 20/1 The Knot Is Tied.
Handicap Chase 2m 4f
Horses rated 0-95
Mixture of out of form horses
With several lower achievers
THE KNOT IS TIED the topweight
Clearly in the out of form category
CARO DES FLOS an 11yo rated 78
Comes into the low achievers camp
UBERMAN is going up in trip
From a yard with a 1-78 career record
Find it a profile hard to trust
ABAYA DU MATHAN is 11 years old
Can forgive pulling up last time out
But just has not been running well
ALBERIC has 1 run in 178 days now
It was a stinker like most have been
He won on his chase debut last year
It was in a handicap as a 5 year old
Appears to have bottomed him out
Regressed in his 4 races since that
Maybe had legitimate fitness excuses
But that's a significant doubt today too
ZUCKERBERG might pop up and win
But his last two races were below par
BITTERSWEETSYMPHONY an 8yo
Could be good enough to take this
Not sure how close to his best he is
He has had 4 races in just 11 months
Wanted more evidence he is ready
KEPLARIAN
Having his 2nd chase run
His first was in a Leicester handicap
Felt he ran well his jumping was fine
He could easily improve and win
MASTER MALCOLM
Should run his race and perform
What I like most about him here
He is a huge horse hard to get fit
His best form does seem to come
After a few prep races each year
Last season he had 4 prep races
Then won on his 5th and 6th runs
This year he has had 4 prep runs
He could be ready to strike in this
Selection
£8.00 Win Bet MASTER MALCOLM 3/1-100/30
£2.00 Win Bet KEPLARIAN 4/1
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Saturday
Doncaster 3.35
The Lincoln
11/2 Al Mubhir, 6/1 Awaal, 12/1 Baradar, 12/1 Wanees
14/1 Atrium, 14/1 Unforgotten, 14/1 Jimi Hendrix, 16/1 Akhu Najla
16/1 Majestic, 16/1 Alrehb, 16/1 Montassib, 20/1 Brewing
20/1 Saga, 20/1 Migration, 25/1 Croupier, 25/1 Bopedro
25/1 Muraad, 25/1 Toshizou, 25/1 Great Max, 25/1 Zealot
33/1 Totally Charming, Empirestateofmind, 33/1 Kingdom Come
33/1 Dual Identity, 33/1 Ouzo, 33/1 Sun King, 33/1 Eilean Dubh
33/1 Bosh, 33/1 Emporio, 33/1 Tacarib Bay, 33/1 Air To Air
33/1 Notre Belle Bete, 40/1 Positive, 40/1 The Gatekeeper
Covered this race yesterday
Waiting for the 5 day declarations
AL MUBHIR
Makes the most appeal right now
But a bad draw could change that
WANESS the horse I fear the most
AWAAL
Second favourite
Has been popular ante post
Gave a weight stat yesterday
Lincoln Handicap
Go back to 2005
Horses with 9st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-53 record in this race
AWAAL will fail this on Saturday
Carrying at least 9st and 7lbs
Been playing around a bit
Come up with another angle
It is a strange one
Combines several factors
Weight
Official Ratings
Absence
Exposure
Go back to 1997
Every handicap run before
That was between 5f and 8f
Any class of race
Any time of year
Over a mile or shorter
Horses aged 4
Under 6 career starts
Absent more than 58 days
Carrying 9st 5lbs or more
Running of a rating of 99 or more
Horses with this profile
Have a 0-37 record in them all
AWAAL is the 38th to try this
Significance not so much 0-37
But it is 25 years of handicaps
Over 8f or shorter like this one
That for me supports the case
AWAAL has quite a lot to prove
And because of that
It firms up my original opinion
AL MUBHIR is the better option
WANEES looks a major danger
One to consider as a saver bet
They are my preferences
But the draw is the big obstacle
You are only 50-50 to get a bad draw
Ante Post
Saturday May 6th
2000 Guineas
4/1 Little Big Bear, 5/1 Auguste Rodin, 8/1 Chaldean
10/1 Noble Style, 12/1 Nostrum, 12/1 Sakheer, 16/1 Royal Scotsman
20/1 Al Riffa, 20/1 Mysterious Night, 25/1 Silver Knott, 25/1 Victoria Road
25/1 Mostabshir, 33/1 Persian Force, 33/1 Slipofthepen, 33/1 Knight
33/1 Belbek
First early look at some issues
After the Curragh finished Saturday
Aidan O'Brien galloped his big guns
LITTLE BIG BEAR
AUGUSTE ROBIN
As you would expect
Aidan told us plenty
Yet also told us nothing
AUGUSTE ROBIN
More of a Derby type
Mile could be a bit sharp
Will he have the speed ?
LITTLE BIG BEAR
Sprinter trying to be a miler
His issue is whether he stays
There are warning signs here
Winning the 5f Norfolk stakes
Not a sign of a Guineas winner
My breeding stats are a weak
He is sired by No Nay Never
No Nay Never was a sprinter
He never raced over a mile
And he never won beyond 6f
Horses sired by No Nay Never
Running over a mile and more
Listed and Group races are 4-55
Those absent over 47 days
Have a 0-13 record to date
Inconclusive but none won
LITTLE BIG BEAR will try to
Back in the 2019 Guineas
Ten Sovereigns failed to stay
He was also by No Nay Never
LITTLE BIG BEAR feels safer
More stamina from his mother
Dug around a few other issues
My reading of the situation
LITTLE BIG BEAR
Will be the stable number 1
Will be Ryan Moore's ride
Stable want him to take this
Watched his runs last year
Looks an imposing monster
May change my mind later
But I think he smells right
I do just prefer him right now
Caught up in all the hype
LITTLE BIG BEAR 4/1-7/2
AUGUSTE ROBIN 4/1-5/1
If they ran the race today
LITTLE BIG BEAR at 4/1
Would tempt me each way
So would a win bet at 4/1
With a place saver as well
AUGUSTE ROBIN perhaps
At best prices
You can get 7/4 either wins
That is not a bad shout
It is not a two horse race
But you think about it
Staking £10.00
£2.00 Win LITTLE BIG BEAR 4/1
£2.00 Win AUGUSTE ROBIN 4/1
£6.00 to be stake at a later date
You can not lose any money
If Aidan wins with either horse
And the £6.00 stake remaining
You could have on anything
Including more on one of Aidan's
That just looks a great strategy
Baring an injury both will race
Both will be shorter on the day
You are covered on both horses
If one of them has a nightmare draw
That's the strategy I would use now