Preview Selections
Musselburgh 1.20
Garde Des Champs 6/4
Win Bet
Hereford 1.40
I Giorni 4/1
Each Way
Hereford 2.15
Charles St 10/11-4/5
Win Bet
Newbury 2.40
£8.00 Win Bet Russian Ruler 4/1- 7/2
£2.00 Win Bet Arqoob 4/1
Newbury 3.10
£7.00 Win Bet Loup De Maulde 11/2-6/1
£3.00 Win Bet Knowsley Road 9/4-5/2
Underneath The Message
Musselburgh 1.20
Garde Des Champs 6/4
Win Bet
Felt this was between two
Going for a straight win bet
But if I was having a bet
It would be option 2 or 3
Option 2
£6 Win Artiste Dainay 11/4-3/1
£4 Win Garde Des Champs 6/4
Option 3
Garde Des Champs if 7/4 +
Each Way single on Betfair
Personally I prefer option 3
Much as many would hate this
But happy to just go win only
As no control in a weak market
Hereford 1.40
I Giorni 4/1
Each Way
One possible problem here
She is giving weight away
To more experienced horses
I still prefer her on the figures
But stops it being a bigger bet
Hereford 2.15
Charles St 10/11-4/5
Win Bet
Think he will win this
Most likely in the message
Market is not as convinced
Plenty still could go wrong
But I'd price him up at 4/9
Newbury 2.40
£8.00 Win Bet Russian Ruler 4/1- 7/2
£2.00 Win Bet Arqoob 4/1
Keeping the faith with a horse
Who probably doesn't deserve it
Open minded about this race
The favourite looked vulnerable
So beating him is first priority
If we do that we have a chance
Newbury 3.10
£7.00 Win Bet Loup De Maulde 11/2-6/1
£3.00 Win Bet Knowsley Road 9/4-5/2
What I was hoping/planning
Was a Place Bet saver at 10/11
On race favourite Knowsley Road
But 4 non runners killed that plan
So a less safe compromise bet
Yesterday's Summary
The wheels came yesterday
Results looked quite horrible
There were certain excuses
The best bet was a split stake
Backed the second and third
Just ran into the 33/1 outsider
My other best bet option lost
Fuji Rocks was in contention
Between fights just fell down
Either slipped up accidently
Maybe put his foot in a hole
Just a random freak incident
The two short priced bets lost
Both placed but failed to win
The each way double option
Would have covered the risks
The 2 cork handicaps difficult
Shortlisted both the winners
But neither the final selection
Returns out stakes in the last
But overall it was a poor day
Even allowing for mitigation
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Musselburgh 1.20
7/4 Artiste D'ainay, 9/4 Quaresome
9/4 Garde Des Champs, 16/1 Jimmy's Jet
40/1 Don't Look Back, 40/1 Donso Star
50/1 Jims Apple, Shantou's Temple.
Maiden Hurdle 2m 1f
Looks a 3 horse race
QUARESOME on his profile
Has the weakest profile of three
Go back to 1998
April and May
Maiden Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 5
Coming from a bumper
Under 3 career starts
Absent over 117 days
Have a 0-55 record
QUARESOME fails this
ARTISTE D'AINAY is a positive
Would have him second choice
There is a case to bet him at 3/1
And save on the favourite at 6/4
But these are only betfair prices
GARDE DES CHAMPS
Offers recent handicap form
Just looks the more likely winner
Selection
GARDE DES CHAMPS 6/4
Win Bet
Hereford 1.40
9/4 Crem Fresh, 7/2 I Giorni, 5/1 Hazy Dream
7/1 Teasing Georgia, 8/1 Bella Ciao, Kenahope
12/1 Chantilly Haze, 25/1 Talkingthetalk.
Novice Handicap Hurdle
Mares race
Some weak numbers in this
Will not take much winning
CREM FRESH has the figures
But not sure what to expect today
She is 9 years old
Raced just once in 15 months
Has 67 days off the track too
Not enough similar races
To be able to judge her properly
But if you look at every race
Go back to 1997
Novice Handicap Hurdles
Mares race
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year
Horses aged 9 or more
Have a modest 1-35 record
The only winner in 2006
Small 5 runner race
One won with 13 days off
CREM FRESH is not a good age
I GORNI is topweight
May have the class to take this
Placed in a Wincanton Novice
If we can beat Crem Fresh
The opposition looks modest
Selection
I GORNI 7/2
Each Way
Hereford 2.15
4/5 Charles St, 7/2 Jikala
4/1 Just Over Land 10/1 Archer
33/1 Damask, 40/1 Sous Surveillance.
Juvenile hurdle
CHARLES ST is odds on
But fully deserves to be
His opponents look raw
He has had 4 hurdle runs
I'd argue every one of them
Would be enough to win this
JUST OVER LAND a danger
But his profile is hard to like
Needs significant improvement
On the back of an absence
Feel the favourite should win
Selection
CHARLES ST 10/11-4/5
Win Bet
Newbury 2.40
5/2 Dr T J Eckleburg, 3/1 Russian Ruler, 5/1 Arqoob
7/1 Mothill, 9/1 Poncho, 16/1 Thibault 25/1 Denable
25/1 Totterdown
Handicap Hurdle 2m
RUSSIAN RULER
Smart reputation last year
But has still yet to win a race
Having his 6th hurdle race
Has been a disappointment
It is too early to write him off
Finished lame at Chepstow
Fell at the final hurdle last time
Ran well and his mark is fair
How far can we trust him here ?
Hard to know but this is winnable
ARQOOB was behind him last time
But he needed the race that day
He has since won a softer novice
But whilst he gets 6lbs weight
His figures are not as strong
Could be a saver candidate
DR T J ECKLEBURG is a 5yo
He has a lot to prove as favourite
Quite exposed for a 5 year old
With 18 runs and 6 over hurdles
When topweight and 76 days off
On the wrong side of this statistic
January to September
2m Handicap hurdles
Run in class 2-3-4
Horses aged 5
Over 16 career runs
Over 5 hurdle races
Absent more than 60 days
Have a 0-54 record in them all
DR T J ECKLEBURG fails this
Only just but he shares the profile
Might win but he has challenges
MOTHILL has 112 days off
But no strong profile issues
One or two others have claims
Staying with the Henderson horse
RUSSIAN RULER is much better
Than a handicap mark of only 120
Would not trust this horse blindly
But felt he should be the selection
On his trainers record at this track
Selection
£8.00 Win Bet RUSSIAN RULER 4/1- 7/2
£2.00 Win Bet ARQOOB 4/1
Newbury 3.10
4/1 Knowsley Road, 11/2 Zanza, 6/1 Loup De Maulde
13/2 Kilbeg King, 7/1 Miss Fairfax, 12/1 Hurricane Harvey
12/1 Phantom Getaway, 14/1 Brinkley 20/1 Skandiburg
25/1 On The Blind Side
Handicap Hurdle 3m
Complicated race
ZANZA has been well backed
His last 5 runs were in chases
Now he drops down to hurdles
When quite clearly well treated
And on his favourite course
Easy to offer a good narrative
But he fails this strong statistic
Go back to 2009
February March April
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 5f and further
Run in class 4 and higher
Horses aged 9 or more
Over 15 career starts
Coming from a chase
Running within 5 months
Return a 0-199 record
ZANZA fails this 0-199 record
SKANDIBURG does as well
Interested to see how both run
Opposing both on the above angle
Quite a bit of deadwood in this
MISS FAIRFAX does not appeal
Not as a mare with a long absence
And having unsafe breeding stats
BRINKLEY looks underraced
HURRICANE HARVEY exposed
KILBEG KING is shortlistable
Respected despite first handicap
KNOWSLEY ROAD a positive
LOUP DE MAULDE won last time
This is a harder and deeper race
Started a good season rated 93
But he is now 30lbs higher off 123
Has significant momentum though
Going to include him on the staking
Selection
£7.00 Win Bet LOUP DE MAULDE 11/2-6/1
£3.00 Win Bet KNOWSLEY ROAD 9/4-5/2