Today's Bet Bet
Thurles 3.05
CAHIRDOWN BOY 4/1-7/2
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Today's Message
Saturday after Cheltenham
Energy levels always lower
The only Saturday in the year
I give myself a complete pass
Not worried if it is a short one
And forgive myself if it stinks
But I quite like this message
Kempton 2.05
THE BOMBER LISTON 11/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Brilliant narrative for him
Should we stake this bet ?
No idea if he is fit or ready
Has not ran in many weeks
He pulled up last time out
This is a competitive race
He could easily run badly
And he is weak in market
Drifted out from 9/1 to 12/1
Currently 16/1 on betfair
Sometimes doesn't matter
In this case it worries me
As he could be very good
Must have Aintree targets
So for that reason alone
I am not going to stake him
Shame that
Really thought I have found one
Midlands National
Don't want to stake this bet
Uttoxeter 3.00
£4.00 Each Way Bushypark 12/1
£1.00 Win Bet Truckers Lodge 11/1
£1.00 Win Bet The Two Amigos 8/1-9/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
So the only possible bet left
Thurles 3.05
CAHIRDOWN BOY 4/1-7/2
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
I could stake this as a bet
But it is quite a grubby one
When I felt I had far better
Making him my best bet
But not staking him today
Preview Selections
Kempton 2.05
The Bomber Liston 11/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Uttoxeter 3.00
£4.00 Each Way Bushypark 12/1
£1.00 Win Bet Truckers Lodge 11/1
£1.00 Win Bet The Two Amigos 8/1-9/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Thurles 3.05
Cahirdown Boy 7/2-4/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Underneath The Message
Knackered and reflective today
On the tectonic shift this week
We are about to change codes
Irish Flat season starts in 7 days
English Flat season in 14 days
The Grand National in 28 days
Will be taking time off quite soon
Would normally take Monday off
But Sunday is sparse tomorrow
Only the two low grade meetings
I am not certain to do this Sunday
What I really want to do later today
A big piece on the Grand National
For an extended FBA next message
Not decided yet see what happens
Thurles 3.05
CAHIRDOWN BOY 4/1-7/2
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
On paper most likely winner
Safest bet in the message
But does the horse know ?
Not sure how reliable he is
But we have 1-2-3-4 places
And I have to like this bet
But price pressure at 7/2-4/1
Can't afford him to go lower
I will probably have £20 win bet
Kempton 2.05
THE BOMBER LISTON 11/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Found something in this race
That could be very significant
Best work in the entire message
But we have to face reality
Is he fit ?
Is he here to win ?
Is this an Aintree prep ?
I have no idea
But I have backed him £20
On the back of my findings
If he gets well backed later
I will increase my stake a lot
But not if drifting in market
Uttoxeter 3.00
£4.00 Each Way BUSHYPARK 12/1
£1.00 Win Bet TRUCKERS LODGE 11/1
£1.00 Win Bet THE TWO AMIGOS 8/1-9/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Detailed imaginative preview
Initially had another selection
But found a new breeding stat
That made me question that
Bottom line
Wide open staying race
Unsure about the staking
Preview could go two ways
A work of art
Or a muddled mess
Tenner win for me Bushypark
Yesterday's Summary
Cheltenham has come to an end
Main bet in an exciting gold cup
We had a saver on the winner
Galopin Des Champs covered us
Protektorat ran his heart out too
Had every chance for a long way
Looked sure to get in the 1-2-3-4
Caught very late and off camera
Frustrating to see him finish 5th
Anyone who took those 5 places
Would have made a good profit
So very happy with the main bet
We faded towards the end really
Did some good work in the week
It was a relentless test of stamina
By the finish cracks will appear
We did fine without impressing
My 3 staked bets finished P P P
They were at 10/1 12/1 and 20/1
So that side of things went fine
One of the quirks of this service
When you win you find out why
When we lose we understand it
Felt it should have been better
But could have been a lot worse
Generic Statistics final scores
100 Negatives with 96 that lost
We had 4 winners in 100 bets
Feels like a pointless side show
But it does save me some time
Hope everyone enjoyed things
The winter does drag too much
Now we have the flat coming up
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Kempton 2.05
9/2 Yorksea, 5/1 Outlaw Peter, 8/1 Harbour Lake
8/1 Moveit Like Minnie, 8/1 Too Friendly, 9/1 Scarface
9/1 The Bomber Liston, 10/1 Press Your Luck
10/1 Pull Again Green, 11/1 A Different Kind
12/1 Lady Adare, 40/1 Uhtred.
Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f
11 Past renewals
The best profile for this
Under 8 years old
Under 12 career runs
Absent over 3 weeks
With 10st 11lbs or more
Coming from Class 2 or lower
Coming from 2m 1f or more
That shortlists these horses
10/1 Pull Again Green
12/1 Lady Adare
5/1 Outlaw Peter
11/1 A Different Kind
9/1 The Bomber Liston
8/1 Harbour Lake
Had a play around
Can take or leave most of those
TWO FRIENDLY not on the list
Was a horse I wanted on my side
But I found an alternative narrative
Something maybe more significant
Than the traditional best profile
Nicky Henderson
THE BOMBER LISTON 8/1
In the press today
Henderson made these comments
" He’s had various little issues which have kept him
off the track more than we’d like but he’s a smart
horse and 2m4f on good ground around here is
right up his street. He didn’t enjoy Huntingdon last
time but he’s had a full MOT and has been working
well. I like his chances."
What interests me
Henderson has won this race 5 times
With horses with the same profile
Horses under 8 years old
Absent over 7 weeks
Under 10 career starts
Trained by Nicky Henderson
Have a strong 5-7 record in this
THE BOMBER LISTON has this profile
He won it with Might Bite in 2016
Horses from this stable
With the exact same profile
Won this in 2007 2012 2013 2015 2016
That could be very significant
First time out this season
I opposed him at Kempton
Failed some statistics that day
Pulled up at Huntingdon
You can argue he bounced
But there is another theory
He needed to win that handicap
To qualify for a run at Cheltenham
JP McManus would have wanted this
But once victory was not possible
He was looked after and pulled up
I strongly suspect
This was JP McManus's plot horse
In Cheltenhams Pertempts hurdle
He was not able to get in that race
Now he has had 59 days off
Still very lightly raced
Fits the traditional "best profile"
But is also supported by a great record
Similar types his trainer ran in this race
Who so far have a very smart 5-7 record
Selection
THE BOMBER LISTON 8/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Uttoxeter 3.00
11/2 Guetapan Collonges, 6/1 Iwilldoit, 6/1 The Galloping Bear
9/1 French Paradoxe, 10/1 Secret Reprieve, 11/1 The Two Amigos
12/1 Time To Get Up, 12/1 Truckers Lodge, 14/1 Bushypark
14/1 Major Dundee, 14/1 Tile Tapper, 20/1 Captain Kangaroo
20/1 Notachance, 20/1 Scipion, 50/1 Floueur, Max Dynamo
100/1 D'Jango.
Midlands Grand National
IWILLDOIT is topweight
Rated 155
Faces a 0-145 class field
Unbeaten over fences
There is a fair argument
He could outclass these
Just 3 chase runs is fine
But 12st is a lot of weight
Go back to the 1997 renewal
Horses with 11st 7lbs and more
Have a 0-42 record in this race
IWILLDOIT fails this statistic
This is a stronger angle
Go back to 2013
Handicap Chases
3m 4f and more
Listed and graded class
Horses aged 10 or more
Running off 149 or higher
Have a 0-114 record in them
Last horse to beat this profile
Tidal Bay back in 2006
IWILLDOIT fails this statistic
Last years winner an 11yo
Broke an age statistic doing it
But there was an explanation
He had only had 11 chase runs
He was unusually lightly raced
The more chase runs you have
The weaker your chance in this
Opposing the most exposed
D'JANGO
THE TWO AMIGOS
MAX DYNAMO is too old
TIME TO GET UP is a 10yo
He's not running well enough
FLOUEUR the same problem
THE GALLOPING BEAR is a 10yo
Unexposed by have to oppose him
Coming from the 4 mile Eider chase
Greulling race just 21 days ago
No horse that finished that race
Came back 3 weeks later to win this
MAJOR DUNDEE is an 8 year old
Just 1 run in the last 140 days
May not be enough to take this
He may not stay sire by Scorpion
Who's bred no winners past 27f
CAPTAIN KANGEROO is rejected
His latest 4 runs UR Fell PU Fell
SCIPON a lightly raced 7 year old
Just does not offer enough yet
Would not trust his sire Shantou
Comes from a novice handicap
No past winners won doing that
NOTACHANCE flopped last time
No evidence he will bounce back
Horses running within 5 weeks
Who completed in that race
Only won with a good last run
Those beaten over a length
Have a 0-113 record in them
The following horses fail this
NOTACHANCE
TIME TO GET UP
THE GALLOPING BEAR
FRENCH PARADOXE won last time
But the favourite fell in that race
He is going up 2 grades in class
He has gone up 11lbs in weights
And he comes from a flat race sire
Yet to get a winner beyond 3m 1f
TILE TAPPER is up in class
Horses from Class 3 or lower
With more than 4 chase runs
ComIng from 3m 1f or shorter
Have a 0-55 record in this race
The following horses fail this
TILE TAPPER
FRENCH PARADOXE
MAJOR DUNDEE
GUETAPAN COLLONGES a 7yo
Unexposed box ticking improver
Should go well if he stays this far
His sire's record unproven
Horses sired by Saddler Maker
Are 0-17 over 3m 6f or more
His runners in Class 4 or more
Running over 3m 3f or more
Have a winless 0-27 record
His runners in Class 4 or more
Running over 3m 2f or more
In fields of 5 or more runners
Have a 0-36 record so far
So there are question marks
Shortlist
BUSHYPARK maybe interesting
Won North Yorkshires National
This is a much harder race
Joint bottomweight rated 129
Has to prove he has the class
He was fancied in the Eider
Pulled out ground was too quick
That may work in his favour now
TRUCKERS LODGE is 11
Have to admit that bothers me
But had only 15 chase starts
Can't believe he's had just 15
Being tipped up in many places
And I want to join the party too
If you look at the 0-114 profile
Iwilldoit the topweight fails today
Go back to 2013
Handicap Chases
3m 4f and more
Listed and graded class
Horses aged 10 or more
Running off 149 or higher
Have a 0-114 record in them
In this race last season
TRUCKERS LODGE failed that
He was 10 and ran off 149 there
Today he runs of a far lower 0-135
He has to be on the shortlist too
SECRET REPRIEVE a 9yo
May yet recapture his best
Shortlisted with no profile issues
He has won a Welsh National
People assume he stays all day
But will he with 76 days off ?
Horses sired by Flemensfirth
Running over 3m 3f and more
When in Clas 2 or higher grade
Those absent over 35 days
Have a 0-58 record in them all
SECRET REPRIEVE fails this
If we adapt this breeding stat
With the field size also included
Horses sired by Flemensfirth
Running over 3m 3f and more
Class 6 or higher
Absent more than 35 days
Fields of 9 or more
Have a 0-83 record in them all
SECRET REPRIEVE fails this
Cat amongst the pigeons stat
I was going to select him
Might be a mistake but not now
There is an argument
For upgrading 2 negatives
TIME TO GET UP
THE TWO AMIGOS
Only have to turn a blind eye
To a couple of inconclusive angles
Decided in the end
BUSHYPARK is the bet
But not certain to stay
Selection
£4.00 Each Way BUSHYPARK 12/1
£1.00 Win Bet TRUCKERS LODGE 11/1
£1.00 Win Bet THE TWO AMIGOS 8/1-9/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Thurles 3.05
7/2 Cahirdown Boy, 5/1 Ishan, 11/2 Routine Excellence
11/2 Truckers Angel, 6/1 Hymie Weiss, 12/1 Added Bonus
12/1 Seangoell, 12/1 Soloman Lane, 14/1 Baldur's Gate
14/1 Silvertown, 16/1 Huntingtown, 16/1 Seskin Flyer
20/1 Natural Breeze, 25/1 Capture The Drama.
Handicap Chase 2m 4f
TRUCKERS ANGEL is favourite
She is a mare
Having her chase debut
In a handicap chase
Looked at handicap chases
Run at this track in recent years
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year
None of these were won
By any chase debutant before
Mare or otherwise none did it
To be fair only 13 of them tried
But it can not be easy to do
On a sharp track such as this
Opposing the 3 horses
Who have no chase experience
TRUCKERS ANGEL
ISHAN
NATURAL BREEZE
CAPTURE THE DRAMA is out
He is 15 and coud get married next year
SESKIN FLYER rejected as a 12 year old
HUNTINGDON doesn't offer much
Two horses
Hammered un the last fortnight
Look too risky with no recovery time
ADDED BONUS beaten 40 lengths
BALDURS GATE beaten 48 lengths
HYMIE WEISS is a 7 year old
He's had just 1 run in 295 days
And fell at the 8th just 12 days ago
Obvious fitness concerns there
SILVERTOWN has an absence
SOLOMAN LANE has topweight
Having flopped in his last 2 races
There are so few solid options
CAHIRDOWN BOY looks best
Offers us good recent track form
Going to select him each way
If he runs his race it's hard to see
Too many that could be preferred
Selection
CAHIRDOWN BOY 7/2
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4