Account Bet
Cheltenham 4.50
HALKA DU TABERT 10/1-11/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Today's Message
Done a lot of good work so far
Today with 3 big field handicaps
Traditionally it is the hardest day
Things can unravel very quickly
Stopping that has to be a priority
So is having a staked bet today
Happy enough I have found one
Generally pleased with the work
Cheltenham 4.50
HALKA DU TABERT 10/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Main worries about the bet
Lightly raced in a big field
But so are all our dangers
Would have liked negatives
Do not have enough of them
But very keen on her chance
Think she looks very smart
Best Strategy
Win Bet on Betfair 11/1-12/1
Place Bet in 5 place market 11/8-6/4
But I am restricted to 1-2-3-4 places
Preview Selections
Cheltenham 1.30
Appreciate It 11/4
Each Way
1/4 Odds
1-2 Places
Cheltenham 2.10
Maxxum 6/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5-6
Cheltenham 2.50
Blue Lord 6/1
Each Way
Cheltenham 3.30
Teahupoo 5/2-11/4
Win Bet
Cheltenham 4.10
£4.00 Each Way Frero Banbou 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet Fugitif 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet Datsalrightgino 10/1
Cheltenham 4.50
Halka Du Tabert 10/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Cheltenham 5.30
Fontaine Collonges 20/1-22/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Underneath The Message
Something shocked me yesterday
Friend of mind in Burton on Trent
Went to a Betfred shop for a bet
Sign on the door said shut all day
No staff available to run the shop
Cheltenham and unable to open
Never seen that situation before
Davy Russell
Venetia Williams
Hope both have good days
If they do we probably will
Many bets tied up with them
Cheltenham 4.50
Halka Du Tabert 10/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Best bet for me
I am going off message myself
Going only for a win only bet
Betfairs 11/1 in the win market
Got last years council tax bill
Added 5% to cover the rise
Divided that figure by 11
And that will be my stake today
Just try to win the council tax
Betting in all the other races
But just pottering around them
To small interest stakes no more
Cheltenham 1.30
Appreciate It 11/4
Each Way
1/4 Odds 1-2
I was split staking this
Half stakes Appreciate It
Half stakes Mighty Potter
But a late non runner
Has killed that strategy
The right bet now
Betfair's each way market
Appreciate It each way 5/2
As you do get 1-2-3 places
Thats the bet I would have
But not everyone can get on
So officially its just 2 places
Cheltenham 2.10
Maxxum 6/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5-6
We have 6 places in this race
Think he should get placed
Biggest challenge his rating
Is the handicapper in charge
Had very few positive in this
Nearly made him place saver
Could not find a better option
Or 6 horses that will beat him
Cheltenham 2.50
Blue Lord 6/1
Each Way
Hoping this is a match
Between him and Shishkin
Could have split staked this
But we have 3 places here
Good price nicely framed race
Disappointed if he doesn't place
Cheltenham 3.30
Teahupoo 5/2-11/4
Win Bet
Because of few losers so far
I was planning each way here
To keep the festival strike rate up
But 5/2 is now a bit restrictive
I do think this is better each way
It is just what I would do myself
Cheltenham 4.10
£4.00 Each Way Frero Banbou 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet Fugitif 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet Datsalrightgino 10/1
Small stakes
Big tough handicap
Hope to get negatives beaten
Then see where the chips fall
Cheltenham 5.30
Fontaine Collonges 20/1-22/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Least likely winner
Could have had savers
But decided to keep it simple
Generic Statistics
Current Score
40 Negatives
39 Losers
Cheltenham 2.10- Mill Green 25/1
Cheltenham 2.10- Takarengo 66/1
Cheltenham 2.10- Bear Ghylls 25/1
Cheltenham 2.10- Burrows Park 50/1
Cheltenham 2.10- Risk And Roll 100/1
Cheltenham 2.10- Brandy McQueen 40/1
Cheltenham 2.10- Itchy Feet 25/1
Cheltenham 2.10- Coltor 22/1
Cheltenham 2.10- Glimpse Of Gala 22/1
Cheltenham 2.10- Wakool 22/1
Cheltenham 2.10- Captain Morgs 14/1
Cheltenham 2.10- The Bosses Oscar 10/1
Cheltenham 2.10- An Tailliur 10/1
Cheltenham 2.10- Good Time Jonny 9/1
Cheltenham 4.10- Two For Gold 25/1
Cheltenham 4.10- Embittered 33/1
Cheltenham 4.10- Born By The Sea 100/1
Cheltenham 4.10- Coole Cody 28/1
Cheltenham 4.10- Gevrey 66/1
Cheltenham 4.10- Hereditary Rule 25/1
Cheltenham 4.10- Stolen Silver 25/1
Cheltenham 4.10- Seddon 16/1
Cheltenham 4.10- Frero Banbou 10/1
Cheltenham 4.10- Haut En Couleurs 8/1
Cheltenham 4.10- Il Ridoto 8/1
Cheltenham 5.30- Musical Slave 25/1
Cheltenham 5.30- Captain Cattistock 33/1
Cheltenham 5.30- Defi Bleu 66/1
Cheltenham 5.30- Coeur Serein 25/1
Cheltenham 5.30- Stumptown 4/1
Yesterday's Summary
Pleased with results yesterday
Much more clinical a message
Analysis went up a notch or two
We rode our luck once or twice
But negotiated the card nicely
And finished P L P W W P W
Only had 2 losers in 14 races
Both were beaten in the photo
Gerri Colombe one of those
And he was unlucky not to win
At half time we are doing good
Impaire Et Passe won a saver
There were too many shorties
Energumene one of our winners
Sometimes best to keep it simple
And piggyback the best stables
Delta Work was just magnificent
Trustworthy and delivers on time
Epson Du Houx scraped in 6th
In a race we did have 6 places
Not everyone would have had 6
Technically it was a placed bet
The bumper just went perfectly
Winner and placed bet in 2nd
And the best bet ran a stormer
An Epic Song second each way
Ran is heart out and nearly won
Despite drifting and starting 16/1
Decent message management
But we are just half way through
Thursday is the hardest of days
It can all get undone very quickly
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Cheltenham 1.30
11/10 Mighty Potter, 100/30 Banbridge, 9/2 Appreciate It
10/1 Balco Coastal, 11/1 Stage Star, 16/1 James Du Berlais
50/1 Unexpected Party, 66/1 Notlongtillmay
100/1 Christopher Wood.
Turners Novices' Chase
Grade 1 (2m 4f)
MIGHTY POTTER rated 162
He has a clear edge on figures
His rivals are rated 152 or less
And they all have their issues
STAGE STAR is a 7yo
He comes from a Handicap
No past winners came that that
His type rarely win Grade 1s' here
BALCO COASTAL is a 7yo
He is just out of handicaps
Beaten in his debut Grade 1
Level weights do not help him
As there are 4 rated higher
BANBRIDGE one of those
Has to prove 2m 4f will suit
In this class on this ground
That may sound ridiculous
But this angle is interesting
Horses sired by Doyen
Running over 2m 3f and more
Listed and Graded races
Ground softer than good
In fields of 8 or more
Have a 0-60 record so far
There are only 9 runners
Fails this only by a whisker
But he does and it is soft
JAMES DU BERLAI unsafe
Whilst he flopped last time out
I made him a negative that day
Hammered by Mighty Potter
But he was only a 7/2 chance
Too much of a leap of faith
APPRECIATE IT
May be the biggest danger
But he is 9 years old now
Older than all past winners
Go back to 1997
Festival Grade 1 novice chases
None went to horses aged 9 + (0-17)
APPRECIATE IT would be the first
I should oppose him on that
But there is little in this race
MIGHTY POTTER is only a 6yo
He is the youngest horse in this
Only 1 winner aged 6 has won
And he had 1 more chase runs
Go back 12 months
When they were hurdlers
APPRECIATE IT started 100/30
When placing in a Champion Hurdle
MIGHTY POTTER started at 15/2
When running in a Supreme Novice
Put it that way things looks different
And with the 9 year old age problem
Started racing late has little mileage
Two options
Option1
APPRECIATE IT each way 100/30-7/2
Option 2
£5.00 Win Bet APPRECIATE IT
£5.00 Win Bet MIGHTY POTTER
I was going with Option 2
But Banbridge is a non runner
Which has killed the prices
Now I don't know what to do
So a last minute panic plan
Or the following split stake bet instead
Selection
APPRECIATE IT 11/4
Each Way
1/4 Odds 1-2
Cheltenham 2.10
9/2 Thanksforthehelp, 11/2 Maxxum, 8/1 Walking On Air
10/1 An Tailliur, The Bosses Oscar, 11/1 Good Time Jonny
12/1 Salvador Ziggy, 14/1 Captain Morgs, 16/1 Hector Javilex
20/1 Moka De Vassy, 22/1 Coltor, 25/1 Bear Ghylls
25/1 Glimpse Of Gala, Level Neverending, Mill Green
25/1 The Changing Man, 28/1 Green Book, 33/1 Itchy Feet
33/1 Wakool, 40/1 Brandy McQueen, 50/1 Burrows Park
66/1 Takarengo, 100/1 Risk And Roll.
Pertemps Handicap
Need luck and help here
Generics will need to work
They say avoid these horses
Mill Green 25/1
Takarengo 66/1
Bear Ghylls 25/1
Burrows Park 50/1
Risk And Roll 100/1
Brandy McQueen 40/1
Itchy Feet 25/1
Coltor 22/1
Glimpse Of Gala 22/1
Wakool 22/1
Captain Morgs 14/1
The Bosses Oscar 10/1
An Tailliur 10/1
Good Time Jonny 9/1
Several of the big players
Fail my generic statistics
GOOD TIME JONNY is one
He also comes up 8f in trip
No past winner managed it
You need experience here
But just not too much of it
You need improvement too
Thats why the past winners
Have all conformed to this
The past 11 winners
Had the following hurdle runs
14 10 14 9 7 6 7 7 6 6 10
They all had 6-14 career runs
Horses with 15 or more runs
Have a 0-73 record since 2012
Several are on the generics list
AN TAILLIUR is with 15 hurdles
Could happily forgive him that
But he has 145 days absence
Every winner since 1997
Ran within the last 76 days
The following horses fail this
AN TAILLIUR
SALVADOR ZIGGY has 145 days off
He has to carry topweight as well
CAPTAIN MORGS has 97 days off
Horses absent over 61 days
With over 7 lifetime starts
Have a 0-76 record in this race
CAPTAIN MORGS fails this stat
GREEN BROOK is too exposed
MOKA DE VASSY is a 5 year old
Rated too low and lacks positives
Cheltenham Festival
Handicap Hurdlers since 2010
Horses rated 132 or lower
Coming from non graded races
Have a 0-78 record in them
The following horses fail this
MOKA DE VASSY
LEVEL NEVERENDING
THE CHANGING MAN
THANKSFORTHEHELP rated 129
Also fails that 0-78 ratings statistic
Not ruled out but feels a little raw
Can we trust David Pipe to deliver
With a horse running 19 days ago ?
David Pipe
Festival runners
Absent under 38 days
Have a nasty 1-131 record
That was Gapsara in 2007
Won a 4yo race with 3 days off
In all aged races they are 0-124
Wonder if JP McManus knows it
Might win but not first choice
HECTOR JAVILEX has 7 runs
No strong statistical problems
Not keen on the stable though
Not top draw or reliable here
But on profile he is shortlisted
WALKING ON AIR is a 7yo
He only has 5 hurdle races
When you want between 6-14
But strong in other areas too
So gets the benefit of the doubt
MAXXUM has a balanced profile
Has a racing Post Rating of 152
Last time out a beaten favourite
But he failed a big weight angle
He had a claimer riding him too
And I think that was a prep race
You make argue an obvious case
That he looks badly handicapped
But only if you believe the rating
That he started from as accurate
I don't and expect him to go close
Selection
MAXXUM 6/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5-6
Cheltenham 2.50
4/5 Shishkin, 11/2 Blue Lord, 7/1 Janidil
10/1 Fury Road, 12/1 Envoi Allen, 16/1 French Dynamite
20/1 Ga Law, Hitman, 25/1 Chacun Pour Soi.
Ryanair Chase 2m 5f
Grade 1 chase
19 Horses in this race
SHISKIN won the Ascot Chase
Looking back to his best again
Whether we can fully trust that
After 2 flops in the last 13 months
Would not be too sure about it
Especially when he is odds on
He does have some battle scars
Made the point after Ascot
He has little recovery time
Coming back 26 days later
Following a 77 day break
Horses in the Ryanair
Running within 39 days
With just 1 run in 3 months
Have an overall 1-22 record
Riverside Theatre did it 2012
But he was a younger horse
Less exposed over fences
SHISHKIN could bounce
Don't see his profile negative
But I do see question marks
And it is not a positive profile
12 of the previous 13 winners
Had under 19 lifetime runs
The following all fail this stat
FURY ROAD- 22 runs
ENVOI ALLEN - 20 runs
JANIDIL - 20 runs
CHACUN POUR SIOR - 19 runs
No horse aged 9 or older
Has won absent over 61 days
ENVOI ALLEN has this problem
Horse with over 17 lifetime runs
Yet under 15 past chase runs
Have a winless 0-45 record in this
JANIDIL shares this 0-45 profile
He was second in last years race
But had 3 prep runs beforehand
This year looks short of races
He has raced once in 323 days
GA LAW comes here after a fall
Lowest official rating of them all
HITMAN may find this too tough
FRENCH DYNAMITE likewise
He fails my breeding statistics
SHISHKIN too short to select
Could be used as a saver bet
BLUE LORD is a positive
Every chance on the figures
Option 1
£5.00 Win Bet BLUE LORD 6/1
£5.00 Win Bet SHISHKIN 4/5
But going with Option 2
Selection
BLUE LORD 6/1
Each Way
Cheltenham 3.30
11/4 Blazing Khal, 7/2 Teahupoo, 5/1 Flooring Porter
11/2 Home By The Lee, 9/1 Klassical Dream, 11/1 Gold Tweet
14/1 Paisley Park, 16/1 Ashdale Bob, 20/1 Henri Le Farceur
25/1 Dashel Drasher, 50/1 Sire Du Berlais.
Stayers' Hurdle 3m
Go Back to 1997
Cheltenham Festival
Grade 1 Hurdles
Horses aged 10 or older
Have a 0-72 since then
The following all fail this
PAISLEY PARK
DASHEL DRASHER
SIRE DU BERLAIS
Go Back to 1997
Cheltenham Festival
Grade 1 Hurdles
Horses aged 9 or older
Absent over 54 days
Have a 0-48 record
KLASSICAL DREAM fails this
Recent winners
Had the following hurdle runs
18 14 8 9 7 16 9 10 4 20
None had more than 20 runs
FLOORING PORTER has 22
He won this in 2012 and 2022
May be a lot to ask to win again
Horses aged 8 or more
Over 9 lifetime starts
Absent over 54 days
Have a modest 1-34 record
The only horse with that profile
Was Big Bucks on fast ground
FLOORING PORTER fails this
ASHDALE BOB also fails it too
HENRI LE FARCEUR hard to like
BLAZING KHAL is a 7yo
Won the Boyne hurdle last time
No past winners prepped there
All 12 that tried failed to win this
But would not worry about that
There are bigger issues here
He has just 1 run in 460 days
That could be a major problem
So could his inexperience too
BLAZING KHAL has 4 hurdle runs
Recent winners
Had the following hurdle runs
18 14 8 9 7 16 9 10 4 20
15 of the last 16 winners
Ran at least 6 times over hurdles
The 2014 winner had 4 hurdle runs
But had 3 warm up races before
BLAZING KHAL is a 7 year old
Past 7 year old winners of this
Had 18 9 8 9 15 10 9 8 hurdles
All had twice as many as he does
He does not have a safe profile
Could still win as the class horse
But this race takes no prisoners
GOLD TWEET a French raider
Very difficult to assess properly
Would have been a negative
Had he not won the Cleeve hurdle
HOME BY THE LEE is an 8yo
Never rule Joseph out here
But he has had 20 career runs
And fails an earlier statistic
Horses aged 8 or more
Over 9 lifetime starts
Absent over 54 days
Have a modest 1-34 record
The only horse with that profile
Was Big Bucks on fast ground
TEAHUPOO
Give him every chance here
What bothers me most of all
Horses from the same race
Have a 0-22 record in this
But only a few were fancied
And several did get placed
Happy as a 6yo with 11 runs
I think he should be winning
Wanted to go each way here
That is harder around 11/4-5/2
Selection
TEAHUPOO 5/2-11/4
Win Bet
Cheltenham 4.10
7/2 So Scottish, 8/1 Haut En Couleurs, 8/1 Il Ridoto
9/1 Midnight River, 10/1 Frero Banbou, 10/1 Fugitif
12/1 Datsalrightgino, 16/1 Gemirande, 16/1 Seddon
20/1 Champagne Gold, Mars Harper, Marvel De Cerisy
20/1 Shakem Up'Arry, War Lord, 25/1 Celebre D'Allen
25/1 Coole Cody, 25/1 Embittered, 25/1 Escaria Ten
25/1 Hereditary Rule, Stolen Silver, 33/1 Two For Gold
40/1 Bowtogreatness, 50/1 Captain Tom Cat, 66/1 Gevrey
100/1 Born By The Sea, 100/1 Il Courra.
Plate Handicap Chase 2m 4f
Starting with horses
Who fail generic statistics
Two For Gold 25/1
Embittered 33/1
Born By The Sea 100/1
Coole Cody 28/1
Gevrey 66/1
Hereditary Rule 25/1
Stolen Silver 25/1
Seddon 16/1
Frero Banbou 10/1
Haut En Couleurs 8/1
Il Ridoto 8/1
Cheltenham Festival
Handicap Chases since 1999
Any Distance
Horses aged 6
Carrying more than 11st
Have a 0-59 record
HAUT EN COULERS fails this
Topweight and 12st in weight
Will be interesting to see him
As a fancied Mullins horse
Can't pick him on that generic
IL RIDOTO from Paul Nicholls
Fails the same statistic as well
He is a 6yo and has 11st 3lbs
None his age have won here
With that weight in any handicap
SO SCOTTISH a hot favourite
Marginally survives that statistic
As a 6yo with just 11 stone
If he had 1 more lbs he'd fail
But he has 117 days absence
Do we want a 6yo off so long ?
Cheltenham Festival
Handicap Chases since 1999
Any Distance
Any Class
Horses aged 6 won 7 races
Longest absence was 92 days
SO SCOTTISH has 117 days
He only has 3 chase runs too
Look at every festival handicap
Horses aged 6
Under 10 chase runs
Absent over 46 days
Have a 0-37 record
SO SCOTTISH fails this stat
MARVEL DE CERISY does
Happy to oppose the outsiders
None of these appealed much
MIDNIGHT RIVER has 11st 9lbs
Somehow survives my generics
But falls foul of some race stats
Horses with 11st 5lbs or more
Have a 1-66 record since 1998
MIDNIGHT RIVER fails this
So do the following horses
ESCARIA TEN
FUGITIFF
HAUT EN COULERS
STOLEN SILVER
Go back to 2003
Horses with 4 or more runs
Absent more than 70 days
Have a 0-98 record in this
Several already rejected fail this
So do the following horses too
SHAKEM UP'ARRY
MIDNIGHT RIVER
CHAMPAGNE GOLD
SO SCOTTISH also fails this
Cheltenham Festival
Every Handicap Chase
Going back 22 years
Run on softer than good
Horses aged 8
Carrying 11st 7lbs or more
Have a modest 1-64 record
The only 8yo doing this
Un Temps Pour Tout in 2017
The following horses fail this
MIDNIGHT RIVER
STOLEN SILVER
CELEBRE D'ALLEN a 11yo
Not keen but 5th last year
MARS HARPER is resistible
WAR LORD is an 8 year old
Positives keep him on side
But not safe breeding statistics
Shortlist
FUGITIF 9/1-10/1
DASALRIGHTGINO 10/1
FRERO BANBOU 10/1
FRERO BANBOU an 8yo
Does fail a generic stat
But not a convincing one
As his early french form
May not be that relevant
Looks well treated in this
Comes from a 2m race
Not ideal but managable
Trainers won this 3 times
FUGITIF fails a weight angle
But only by a single pound
He passes my generics too
Career best run last time out
DASALRIGHTGINO is a 7yo
Comes from a Graded Novice
So did the 2016 2017 winners
He has enough to shortlist too
Selection
£4.00 Each Way FRERO BANBOU 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet FUGITIF 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet DASALRIGHTGINO 10/1
Cheltenham 4.50
6/4 Luccia, 11/2 Lot Of Joy, 10/1 Halka Du Tabert
10/1 You Wear It Well, 12/1 Magical Zoe, Under Control
14/1 Foxy Girl, 16/1 Princess Zoe, 22/1 Ahorsewithnoname
25/1 Jetara, Nikini, The Model Kingdom, 33/1 Ladybank
33/1 Mullenbeg, 40/1 Poetic Music, Shecouldbeanything
50/1 Banntown Girl, Endless Escape, 100/1 Belle The Lioness
100/1 Inspiratrice, Still Ciel.
Mares Novice Hurdle
Big field
Short priced favourite
LUCCIA is rated 7lbs clear
But she does have a penalty
But so did 3 previous winners
She's short but lots of deadwood
Horses aged 5-6 are preferred
UNDER CONROL the only 4yo
Looks one we should oppose
Against these 8 year olds too
PRINCESS ZOE
AHORSEWITHNONAME
Past winners
Had the following absences
28 46 180 47 47 39 39
FOXY GIRL has 81 days off
MAGICAL ZOE 132 days off
NIKINI has 132 days off
Felt they had a lot to prove
Horses from 2m races
Have so far got a 1-59 record
Those from Listed/graded races
Run over 2m are 0-26 in them
LUCCIA has this 0-26 profile
She's raced once in 110 days
Does feel on the short side here
LOT OF JOY must be respected
But horses from a maiden hurdle
Have a 0-18 record in this race
None won and she comes fro
5 of the 6 winners
Shared this profile
Aged 5 or 6
Running 4-7 weeks ago
Coming from 2m 2f
Listed/Graded class time
Beaten under 5 lengths
Horses with this profile
Had a 6-13 record in this
YOU WEAR IT WELL is a match
JETARA is also a match
HALKA DU TABERT is too
HALKA DU TABERT
Cost 260k
Won a bumper on debut
Starting odds on doing so
Won a Naas maiden hurdle
That was an impressive win
Had no hurdling experience
Beat experienced hurdlers
Coming from top class yards
Beat a Willie Mullins horse
By 11 lengths on hurdling debut
The Mullins horse Eabha Grace
Had hurdling experience before
And has since won a graded race
Hurdling debutants
In Mares maiden hurdles
At that time of year struggle
She overperformed there
Last time out
Graded hurdle at Fairyhourse
HALKA DU TABERT was third
Made her a negative that day
She was too just inexperienced
Past winners of that race show it
Hope and think she progresses
She looks a very serious mare
And 10/1 each way is generous
Selection
HALKA DU TABERT 10/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Cheltenham 5.30
4/1 Stumptown, 11/2 Mr Incredible, 13/2 Angels Dawn
9/1 Dunboyne, 10/1 Beauport, 11/1 Royal Thief
14/1 Anightinlambourn, 20/1 Ballykeel, Coeur Serein
20/1 Fontaine Collonges, Musical Slave, 20/1 Punitive
20/1 Rapper, 25/1 Captain Cattistock, 25/1 Dr Kananga
25/1 Lord Accord, 25/1 Slipway, 33/1 Annual Invictus
33/1 Farinet, 33/1 Western Zara, 40/1 Didero Vallis
50/1 Defi Bleu, Emir Sacree, 66/1 Coo Star Sivola.
Kim Muir Challenge Cup
Amateur Jockeys
STUMPTON is a 6yo
Youngest horse in this
Cheltenham Festival
Handicap Chases since 1999
Any Distance
Horses aged 6
Carrying more than 11st
Have a 0-59 record
STUMPTON fails this angle
Carrying 11st 4lbs weight
Cheltenham Festival
Handicap Chases
3m or more Since 1997
Horses aged 6
Have a 1-62 record
Those absent over 18 days 0-46
STUMPTON fails this angle
He is the first generic failure
Generic Failures
Musical Slave 25/1
Captain Cattistock 33/1
Defi Bleu 66/1
Coeur Serein 25/1
Stumptown 4/1
Cheltenham Festival
Every Handicap Chase
Going back 22 years
Run on softer than good
Horses aged 8
Carrying 11st 7lbs or more
Have a modest 1-67 record
The following horses fail this
ANNUAL INVICTUS
FARINET
DUNBOYNE
SLIPWAY
LORD ACCORD
The previous 13 winners
Had the following ratings
134 142 141 143 138 137 142
137 138 137 142 134 140
Horses rated under 134
Have a 0-86 record in this
The following horses fail this
BALLYKEEL
ANGELS DAWN
CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK
WESTERN ZARA
Past winners of this race
Had the following chase runs
10 3 5 9 9 9 15 19 10 6
11 6 10 10 7 5 18 19 19
22 5 4 11 20 10 18 8 13
Only 1 previous winner
Had under 5 chase runs
That horse was a mare
ROYAL THIEF has 3 chases
Plenty of weight and absence
Has a lot to prove on profile
BEAUFORT has 3 chase runs
Not many and 11st 12lbs weight
Cheltenham festival
Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any class
Since 1997
Horses of any age
Under 6 chase runs
Carrying 11st 10lbs or more
Have a 0-20 record so far
Weight and inexperience his issue
EMIR SACREE looks underraced
Go back to 1998
Claiming jockeys
Carrying 11st 2lbs or more
Have a 0-56 record in this
The following horses fail this
DEFI BLUE
ROYAL THIEF
RAPPER
ANNUAL INVICTUS
DR KANANGA
ANIGHTINLAMBOURN won last time
But she is quite an exposed mare
Without a race in 124 days now
PUNITIVE has a chance
But needs to prove stamina
DUNBOYNE fails an earlier stat
But has positives in other areas
And will have been laid out for this
MR INCREDIBLE has topweight
Looks a tough task with 12st weight
But he avoids my generic statistics
The 2019 winner was a 7 year old
He carried 11st 11lbs to win then
FONTAINE COLLONGES a mare
Has some good and bad points
Her last race is very forgivable
The 2007 and 2009 winners of this
Were both thrashed in the same race
Progresssing very well prior to that
Very risky but she is a good price
Selection
FONTAINE COLLONGES 20/1-22/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5