Day 2

Today's Best Bet

Cheltenham 2.50

AN EPIC SONG 10/1-12/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5-6

Lots of short priced horses

Does not seem a natural bet

Two massive field handicaps

Look far too ambitious for one

We could go for a short price

But that is not very appealing

The best two short price bets

Could be combined together

And put in an each way double

Cheltenham 2.10 - Gerri Colombe 6/4

Cheltenham 4.10 - Delta Work 11/8

Each Way Double

Bit short and would not be popular

But if it was obligatory to have a bet

That did not lose significant stakes

Then this would have to be the one

But I have to admit it is a bit short

Always the sensible option to wait

Have a day without any staked bet

And that is what I am going to do

For the days best bet

I will resist the shorter prices

I like this big priced horse

But falls short of a staked bet

Today's Best Bet

Cheltenham 2.50

AN EPIC SONG 10/1-12/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5-6

Preview Selections

Cheltenham 1.30

£6.50 Win Bet Good Land 5/1-9/2

£3.50 Win Bet Impaire Et Passe 7/4

Cheltenham 2.10

£9.00 Win Bet Gerri Colombe 5/4-11/8

£1.00 Win Bet Thyme Hill 9/1

Cheltenham 2.50

An Epic Song 12/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5-6

Cheltenham 3.30

Energumene 13/8-7/4

Win Bet

Cheltenham 4.10

Delta Work 11/8-6/4

Win Bet

Cheltenham 4.50

£2.50 Each Way Epson Du Houx 14/1-16/1

£2.50 Each Way Before Midnight 18/1-20/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5-6

Cheltenham 5.30

£5.00 Win Bet A Dream To Share 4/1

£5.00 Place Bet Fact To File 1/1 (1-2-3-4)

Underneath The Message

Yesterday I put £100 in Bet365

They were offering a bet boost

Constitution Hill at even money

Sadly they laid me only £10.00

So my balance is now £110.00

Had a £55.00 each way double

Cheltenham 2.10 - Gerri Colombe 6/4

Cheltenham 4.10 - Delta Work 11/8

£55.00 Each Way Double

Also had a £10 saver

Thyne Hill at 9/1 in the 2.10pm race

I don't mind these kind of bets

The fact they are not advertised

And many see them as ridiculous

Is clear evidence they are from it

I'd happily bet both in e/w singles

But I don't like staking such bets

Cheltenham 1.30

£6.50 Win Bet Good Land 4/1-7/2

£3.50 Win Bet Impaire Et Passe 2/1

I can see the sense in this staking

There are a couple of threats to it

Have issues with Impaire Et Passe

But I think he will probably win this

The Ballymore does have a habit

Of being ahead of the race history

Sometimes the best horse just wins

With that in mind

I have gone off message

Impaire Et Passe £35 each way

Neither of the bets I have had

Will be tempting to many people

They are just my own strategy

The official selections will stand

Will probably have interest bets

Through the rest of the message

An Epic Song the official best bet

Included in that staking about £15

Generic Statistics

Current Score

10 Negatives

10 Losers

Cheltenham 2.50 - Call Me Lord 33/1

Cheltenham 2.50 - Irish Hill 16/1

Cheltenham 2.50 - Elvis Mail 66/1

Cheltenham 2.50 - Fil Dor 16/1

Cheltenham 2.50 - HMS Seahorse 9/1

Cheltenham 2.50 - Icare Allen 22/1

Cheltenham 2.50 - Red Risk 25/1

Cheltenham 2.50 - Harbour Lake 40/1

Cheltenham 2.50 - Sporting John 50/1

Cheltenham 2.50 - Grand Roi 33/1

Cheltenham 2.50 - The Very Man 28/1

Cheltenham 2.50 - Scaramanga 25/1

Cheltenham 2.50 - An Epic Song 12/1

Cheltenham 2.50 - Tax For Max 28/1

Cheltenham 2.50 - Beacon Edge 14/1

Cheltenham 2.50 - Nells Son 50/1

Cheltenham 2.50 - Camprond 7/1

Cheltenham 2.50 - Run For Oscar 7/1

Cheltenham 2.50 - Langer Dan 11/1

Cheltenham 4.50 - A Wave Of The Sea 25/1

Cheltenham 4.50 - Riders Onthe Storm 50/1

Cheltenham 4.50 - Battleoverdoyen 33/1

Cheltenham 4.50 - Sizing Pottsie 25/1

Cheltenham 4.50 - Malystic 25/1

Cheltenham 4.50 - Before Midnight 16/1

Cheltenham 4.50 - Elixir De Nutz 14/1

Cheltenham 4.50 - Midnight Run 16/1

Cheltenham 4.50 - Andy Dufresne 6/1

Cheltenham 4.50 - Coeur Sublime 10/1

Cheltenham 4.50 - Final Orders 6/1

Yesterday's Summary

Battling all day long yesterday

We finished up P P P P P L P

For all it's intents and purposes

I would see it as a score draw

As one of the place bet returns

Almost recovered the loser stake

Had quite mixed feelings about it

There were several good points

The staked bet returned stakes

Nobody got hurt following it all

And the staking was excellent

Needed to be as good as it was

Because my angles got beaten

Marine Nationale won the opener

My stays were clearly negative

Got rescued by decent staking

It was experience and instinct

Led us to avoid a horrible start

My angles got the Arkle wrong

But again we escaped any loss

Corach Rambler won the Ultima

Another horses I could not like

But once again got away with it

Oscar Elite placing in 5th place

Help up ridden too confidently

He did well to get into the frame

State Man did what he had to

But securing the second place

Queens Brook placed 20/1-16/1

Ran well happy with her running

The one loser was in the boodles

The saver went down by a neck

Finally ending with the main bet

Gaillard Du Mesnil a saver won

Felt that was quite well staked

But we might have been lucky

Overall so much was quite poor

Far too many I did not like won

My statistics were embarrassing

But we did get a bit of good luck

And the staking was very smart

And that is what saved our bacon

Just about level after the 1st day

But not too sure we deserved it

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Cheltenham 1.30

13/8 Impaire Et Passe, 100/30 Good Land, 4/1 Hermes Allen

7/1 Gaelic Warrior, 8/1 Champ Kiely, 20/1 Ho My Lord

33/1 American Mike, 66/1 Marble Sands, 100/1 Persian Time

150/1 Master Chewy.

Ballymore

Novices' Hurdle (2m 5f)

10 runners

Willie Mullins trains 4

IMPAIRE ET PASSE

Looks the stable number 1

Been strongly supported

But how safe is this horse

He has 3 career starts

He has 2 hurdle starts

Recent winners

Had the following lifetime runs

6 4 7 5 6 7 6 9 4 8 4 5 3 8 4 11 9

Only the 2010 winner had <4 runs

IMPAIRE ET PASSE looks raw

And the last 9 winners of this

Were aged 6 or 7 years old

IMPAIRE ET PASSE is a 5yo

The 2010 winner Peddlers Cross

The only past 5yo winner like him

Horses aged 5

Won 3 renewals since 2006

They had 4 3 4 runs that year

IMPAIRE ET PASSE has two

So this profile is far from ideal

But we surely have to factor in

The stable jockey has chosen him

CHAMP KIELY has been rejected

And although a 7yo won last year

This is not the best age for the race

HO MY LORD was also rejected

He is inexperienced easy to reject

GAELIC WARRIOR another 5yo

The stable jockey turned him down

Horses from handicaps like him

Have a historically horrible record

Always liked the horse but in this

There is evidence to reject him

He also comes from a 2m race

Horses from 2m races are fine

But those that have done this

Had only 2 3 2 3 4 2 hurdle runs

GAELIC WARRIOR has had 7

HERMES ALLEN looks classy

Being English horse my worry

And like the favourite he is raw

Has had just 3 runs under rules

Recent winners

Had the following lifetime runs

6 4 7 5 6 7 6 9 4 8 4 5 3 8 4 11 9

Only the 2010 winner had <4 runs

HERMES ALLEN falls down here

GOOD LAND is a 7yo

We had a 7yo winner last year

But horses aged 7 or more

Have a 1-57 record since 1999

Winning only in 1974 1998 2022

IMPAIRE ET PASSE

Going to make the assumption

He beats his other stablemates

Prefer him to Hermes Allen too

And short of a complete shock

GOOD LAND his biggest danger

So going to shortlist this pair

And go with a split stake bet

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet GOOD LAND 5/1-9/2

£3.50 Win Bet IMPAIRE ET PASSE 7/4

Cheltenham 2.10

11/8 Gerri Colombe, 5/1 The Real Whacker

7/1 Galia Des Liteaux, 7/1 Sir Gerhard, 7/1 Thyme Hill

12/1 Adamantly Chosen, Ramillies, 14/1 Thunder Rock

40/1 Bronn, 66/1 Amirite, I Am Maximus

Brown Advisory Novice Chase

Formerly know as the RSA

Best Profile

Horses aged 7yo-8yo

8-18 lifetime starts

3-4-5 previous chase runs

3 or more runs that season

Running within 76 days

Previous winners

Had the following career runs

8 12 9 16 10 13 8 8 11 9 11

11 12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9

GERRI COLOMBE a hot favourite

Comes here with 7 career starts

That is one run short of required

He'd be least experienced winner

But he fails that by just one race

Much depends on his opposition

ADAMANTLY CHOSEN is a 6yo

His age are just 1-49 since 1998

BRONN has the same problem

Overall his age group is unsafe

SIR GERHARD is an 8 year old

Thats fine but 7yo's score better

Horses aged 8 like him

Have a modest 3-52 record

He has other things against him

He comes from a 2 mile race

No past winner since 1998

Came from 2m 3f or shorter

SIR GERHARD would be first

He only has 1 chase start too

The last 22 RSA Chase winners

Had the following Chase starts

4 3 3 3 4 5 2 3 5 3 5

5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4

Don Poli (2015) won with 2 chases

But he was the only one that did it

SIR GERHARD only has 1 chase

Coming from 2m as an 8yo as well

Makes this profile look vulnerable

RAMILIES only has 2 chase runs

21 of the last 23 past winners

Had at least 3 runs this season

RAMILIES does not offer us this

SIR GERHARD fails this angle

THE REAL WHACKER is a 7yo

He has only had 2 chase races

That does not fit the "Ideal profile"

He only has 6 career starts too

Previous winners career runs

8 8 12 9 16 10 13 8 8 11 9 11

11 12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9

THE REAL WHACKER is raw

We could forgive him all that

But from a small northern stable

With one of the longest breaks

It becomes more difficult to do

GAILIA DES LITEAUX a mare

She has raced only 6 times

Ideally you want 8 or more runs

With just 3 previous chase runs

One of which she did not finish

I don't see a good enough match

Shortlist

THYME HILL is a 9 year old

Last 9yo to win way back in 1992

He is more exposed than ideal

But not by much and 9 year olds

Are only 0-23 and some placed

Not liking the 2nd and 3rd favs

Make me think he is a good saver

THUNDER ROCK 18/1

GERRI COLOMBE 5/4-11/8

Both share the ideal profile

Met each other at Sandown

GERRI COLOMBE won well

Would expect him to confirm

THUNDER ROCK may place

That could be a saver option

Decided not to save on him

But on Thyme Hill instead

Selection

£9.00 Win Bet GERRI COLOMBE 5/4-11/8

£1.00 Win Bet THYME HILL 9/1

Cheltenham 2.50

7/1 Camprond, Run For Oscar, 9/1 HMS Seahorse

10/1 Langer Dan, 12/1 An Epic Song, Beacon Edge

12/1 Captain Conby, 14/1 Good Risk At All, Watch House Cross

16/1 Benson, Fil Dor, 16/1 Irish Hill, 18/1 San Salvador

20/1 Sa Fureur, 22/1 Icare Allen, 25/1 Red Risk, Riaa

25/1 Scaramanga, 28/1 Tax For Max, The Very Man

33/1 Bold Endeavour, 33/1Call Me Lord, 33/1 Grand Roi

33/1 Harbour Lake, 50/1 Nells Son, Off Your Rocco

50/1 Sporting John, 66/1 Elvis Mail.

Coral Cup

Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f

Starting with the Generics

Call Me Lord 33/1

Irish Hill 16/1

Elvis Mail 66/1

Fil Dor 16/1

HMS Seahorse 9/1

Icare Allen 22/1

Red Risk 25/1

Harbour Lake 40/1

Sporting John 50/1

Grand Roi 33/1

The Very Man 28/1

Scaramanga 25/1

An Epic Song 12/1

Tax For Max 28/1

Beacon Edge 14/1

Nells Son 50/1

Camprond 7/1

Run For Oscar 7/1

Langer Dan 11/1

HMS SEAHORSE fails one

Too exposed for a 5 year old

Just 1 run in 171 days as well

Don't want exposed 9yo's

BEACON EDGE is an example

If you look at his sire Doyen

His runners over hurdles

Over 2m 4f and more

Listed and Graded class

In fields of 9 or more are 0-77

BENSON won just 11 days ago

But class risers like him struggle

When as exposed as he is now

Go back to 2014

Cheltenham Festival

Handicap Hurdles

Horses with over 14 runs

From Class 2 or lower

Have a vicious 1-196 record

RUN FOR OSCAR fails this

He is an exposed 8 year old

Who fails 2 generic statistics

CAMPROND also fails this

Several other fancied horses

Fail generic statistics as well

OFF YOUR ROCCO is a 7yo

Underraced and out of form

BOLD ENDEAVOR is opposed

Coming here just after fencing

If you go back to 2001

Horses from a Novice

Have a 0-88 record

SA FUREUR attemps this

RIAAN also has this problem

A GOOD RISK AT ALL

Has not run in 116 days

I can live with the absence

I'd have liked shorter off

And a bit less weight too

But what worries me most

He drops down from 3m

Horses from 2m 6f or more

Have a 0-97 record since 2005

SAN SALVADOR is a 7yo

Unexposed has positives

But he fails this intriguing stat

Go back to 2000

Horses from Listed or Graded races

Absent over 6 weeks are 0-109 now

The following horses all fail this

SAN SALVADOR

LANGER

GOOD RISK AT ALL

CAPTAIN CONBY has a chance

But the stables hurdle runners

Have a very low 3% strike rate

And the past renewals show us

Horses from 2m 3f or shorter

Carrying 11st 3lbs or more

Have a 0-67 record in this race

The following horses fail this

WATCH HORSE CROSS

CAPTAIN CONBY

Might be some forgiveness here

CAPTAIN CONBY did run over 2m 3f

But it was an extended distance

And I am struggling for cover bets

AN EPIC SONG

Fails one of the weaker generics

And he has to come up 5f in trip

But the 2010 + 2018 winners

Had similar profiles to him

And came from the same race

Having raced just once that year

Not the first time I have selected

A horse failing a generic statistic

Did not see his failure as strong

Selection

AN EPIC SONG 12/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5-6

Cheltenham 3.30

6/4 Edwardstone, 13/8 Energumene

9/2 Editeur Du Gite 16/1 Greaneteen

16/1 Nube Negra, 33/1 Captain Guinness

33/1 Funambule Sivol

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Grade 1 Chase 2m

The discussion all season

Edwardstone or Energumene

Has by passed me completely

Not paid any attention to this

Come here blind and unengaged

5 horses dominate the market

These are all 9 year olds

Little between them on profile

Official ratings show

ENERGUMENE is 5lbs clear

Comes from the best stable

Won the race last season

He did that with just 9 races

Every past winner since 1997

Had at least 11 lifetime starts

ENERGUMENE won it with 9

This year he has had 13 races

Like to think that will help him

These are superficial arguments

But the runners are too compact

All 9 year olds with 10-17 chases

All coming with similar absences

Statistical clues thin on the ground

Trust Mullins and last years winner

Seems the most trustworthy route

Have no insight or anything strong

Just relying on the master trainer

Selection

ENERGUMENE 13/8-7/4

Win Bet

Cheltenham 4.10

11/10 Delta Work, 2/1 Galvin, 7/1 Franco De Port

14/1 Back On The Lash, 20/1 Deise Aba, Gin On Lime

20/1 Snow Leopardess, 33/1 Diesel D'Allier, Foxy Jacks

33/1 Plan Of Attack, 40/1 Easysland, 40/1 Mortal

50/1 Francky Du Berlais, 50/1 Lieutenant Rocco

66/1 Hardline, 100/1 Coup De Pinceau.

Cross Country Chase

DELTA WORK won last year

And on his cross county debut

Comes here to defend his crown

GALVIN his classy stablemate

Looks on figures his big threat

Rarely much strength in depth

Worth bearing in mind

It was only this week last year

GALVIN ran in the Gold Cup

Finished in 4th there at 100/30

He is 7lbs clear on official ratings

But this is his first cross country

He's raced just once in 130 days

DELTA WORK has ran twice since

Like that he prepped over hurdles

2010 2011 2016 2019 2021 winners

All prepped over hurdles last time

Horses aged 8-12

Coming from a hurdle

Running within 6 weeks

At least 11 lifetime starts

Starting under 33/1 last time

Have a decent 5-14 record

DELTA WORK has this profile

The 2019 and 2021 winners

Came from the same race too

FRANCO DE PORT

Could be a sensible saver

GALVIN scares me a lot

DELTA WORK is more solid

Selection

DELTA WORK 11/8-6/4

Win Bet

Cheltenham 4.50

11/2 Dinoblue, 6/1 Andy Dufresne, Final Orders

9/1 Third Time Lucki, 12/1 Coeur Sublime, Dads Lad

14/1 Thyme White, 16/1 Elixir De Nutz, Epson Du Houx

16/1 Global Citizen, 20/1 Before Midnight, Call Me Lyreen

20/1 Midnight Run, 20/1 The Last Day, 22/1 Maskada

25/1 A Wave Of The Sea, 28/1 Riders Onthe Storm

233/1 Dancing On My Own, Malystic, Prince Escalus

40/1 Battleoverdoyen.

Grand Annual

Handicap Chase 2m

Starting with the generics

The following all fail

A Wave Of The Sea 25/1

Riders Onthe Storm 50/1

Battleoverdoyen 33/1

Sizing Pottsie 25/1

Malystic 25/1

Before Midnight 16/1

Elixir De Nutz 14/1

Midnight Run 16/1

Andy Dufresne 6/1

Coeur Sublime 10/1

Final Orders 6/1

Some of the big guns

Fail generic statistics

ANDY DUFRESNE does

He combines 12st weight

A difficult rating of 155

And 60 days absence too

To be fair in last years race

He placed with a big weight

His profile was quite similar

But it just looks a tough ask

COUEUR SUBLIME fails one

Based on his rating of 153

FINAL ORDERS does as well

He looks very exposed for a 7yo

Go back to 1998

Horses who last time out

Won a handicap chase

Have a 0-58 record in this

They have not followed up

In any renewal since 1998

FINAL ORDERS fails this angle

THIRD TIME LUCKI does as well

Cheltenham Festival

Every Handicap Chase

Going back 22 years

Run on softer than good

Horses aged 8

Carrying 11st 7lbs or more

Have a modest 1-64 record

The only 8yo doing this

Un Temps Pour Tout in 2017

The following horses fail this

ANDY DUFRESNE

THIRD TIME LUCKI

COUEUR SUBLIME

Horses with 11st 9lbs or more

Have a weak 0-39 record in this

The following horses fail this

ANDY DUFRESNE

FINAL ORDERS

DINOBLUE is 6 years old

She survives my generic stats

But marginally by a couple of lbs

She is a lightly raced mare

She has a fair bit to prove here

But can not rule her out either

GLOBAL CITIZEN is an 11yo

Won this race last year at 28/1

But now 11 and a poor last run

Not the kind of horse I'd want

DANCING ON MY OWN an 8yo

Not been showing much promise

THE LAST DAY is underraced

Horses aged 5-6-7

With over 15 career runs

Have a poor 1-61 record

The following horses fail this

MASKADA

CALL ME LYREEN

THYME WHITE

DADS LAD is respected

Could even be shortlisted

But not the stables no 1

And has 122 days break

Shortlist

EPSON DU HOUX

BEFORE MIDNIGHT

BEFORE MIDNIGHT is a 10yo

He does fail a generic statistic

But I am going to forgive him that

He was my choice in last years race

Withdrew down to the heavy ground

Well treated then now 5lbs lower

EPSON DU HOUX is unexposed

Passes all my main angles in this

Selection

£2.50 Each Way EPSON DU HOUX 14/1-16/1

£2.50 Each Way BEFORE MIDNIGHT 18/1-20/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5-6

Cheltenham 5.30

4/1 A Dream To Share, 5/1 Fact To File, 6/1 It's For Me

8/1 Fun Fun Fun, 12/1 Better Days Ahead, 14/1 Encanto Bruno

14/1 Western Diego, 16/1 Chapeau De Soleil, 20/1 Queens Gamble

22/1 Westport Cove, 25/1 Captain Teague, Favour And Fortune

28/1 Loughglynn, 40/1 Chosen Witness, 40/1 D Art D Art

40/1 Fascile Mode, Fiercely Proud, King Of Kingsfield

40/1 Lecky Watson, No Time To Wait, 50/1 Samui

66/1 Beachcomber, Captain Cody, 100/1 Shinji.

Champion Bumper

Betting blind here

The last 11 Bumper winners

Had 2 2 3 3 2 4 2 3 3 3 2 runs

Those with 1 run were 0-33

The following horses fail this

WESTERN DIEGO

IT'S FOR ME

WESTPORT COVE

Horses beaten last time out

Have a very nasty record

Since 2004 they are 0-106

Several outsiders fail this

FACT TO FILE also fails this

QUEENS GAMBLE does too

FUN FUN FUN is a positive

She may only be a mare

But the 2018 winner of this

Shared the exact same profile

A DREAM TO SHARE

6lbs clear on official ratings

7lbs clear on Racing Post Ratings

That surely gets him shortlisted

He won a Grade 2 at Leopardstown

FACT TO FILE was 2nd that day

Because he was beaten there

He fails a "beaten last time out" stat

But this is a Willie Mullins horse

FACT TO FILE wasn't beaten far

He started favourite to win there

Could be able to reverse the form

With a better all round pedigree

Quite fancy the split win/place bet

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet A DREAM TO SHARE 4/1

£5.00 Place Bet FACT TO FILE 1/1 (1-2-3-4)