Cheltenham 1.30
£8.50 Win Bet Facile Vega 9/4
£1.50 Win Bet Marine Nationale 5/1
Cheltenham 2.10
Saint Roi 100/30
Each Way
Cheltenham 2.50
£3.50 Each Way Oscar Elite 12/1
£1.00 Each Way Laskalin 50/1-40/1
£1.00 Win Bet Monbeg Genius 8/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5 (6)
Cheltenham 3.30
State Man 100/30
Each Way
1/4 Odds
1-2 Places
Cheltenham 4.10
£3.50 Each Way Queens Brook 20/1
£1.50 Win Bet Brandy Love 5/1 +
£1.50 Win Bet Love Envoi 5/1
Cheltenham 4.50
£4.00 Win Bet Sir Allen 12/1-14/1
£5.00 Place Bet Tekao 4/5-10/11
£1.00 Win Bet Byker 7/1
Cheltenham 5.30
£5.00 Win Bet Minella Crooner 8/1
£5.00 Win Bet Gaillard Du Mesnil 11/10
Underneath The Message
Another option for a staked bet
Radical and stomach churning
But it makes a lot of sense too
Cheltenham 1.30 - Facile Vega 9/4
Tomorrow 4.10 - Delta Work 6/5
Each Way Double
If we pair Facile Vega
With Delta Work in the Cross Country
Where you are getting 1-2-3-4 places
Returns from a £1 each way double (£2)
£8.85 if they both win
£1.80 if they both place
That bet may be very clever
But it is also very unsettling
I could make it more toxic
Make myself look even more foolish
Throwing in Constitution Hill at 4/11
Turn the bet into a 12/1 treble bet
Lets just keep things simple today
Cheltenham 1.30
£8.50 Win Bet Facile Vega 5/2-9/4
£1.50 Win Bet Marine Nationale 5/1
Decided to bet each way myself
Offices are 9/4 1-2-3-4 places
Betfair offer 3/1 with 3 places
That is much more convenient
Thats what I have done myself
£30 Each Way Facile Vega 3/1
Cheltenham 2.10
Saint Roi 15/2-8/1
Each Way
Feels a reasonable choice
But so many imponderables
Tactics will have a big say
I don't feel I can call this one
May just have a split stake bet
£5 Win Saint Roi 11/1
£5 Place Saint Roi 1/1
£10 Place Dysart Diamond 1/1
Cheltenham 2.50
£3.50 Each Way Oscar Elite 12/1
£1.00 Each Way Laskalin 50/1-40/1
£1.00 Win Bet Monbeg Genius 8/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5 (6)
My angles seem very clear
One of 4 horses should win
Oscar Elite 12/1
Laskalin 50/1-40/1
Monbeg Genius 8/1
Fantastikas 16/1
Not sure what I will do here
Probably £10 Laskalin at 50/1
Oscar Elite maybe £20-30 12/1
Cheltenham 3.30
State Man 100/30
Each Way
1/4 Odds
1-2 Places
Sitting this one out
All year liked State Man each way
The favourite probably beats him
Happy to just watch what happens
Cheltenham 4.10
Queens Brook 20/1
£10 Each Way
Cheltenham 4.50
£4.00 Win Bet Sir Allen 12/1-14/1
£5.00 Place Bet Tekao 4/5-10/11
£1.00 Win Bet Byker 7/1
Strategy bet with messy stakes
Want to save on Tekao to place
Feels that's the right play here
Not very likely to have any bet
Cheltenham 5.30
£12 Win Bet Minella Crooner 8/1
£12 Win Bet Gaillard Du Mesnil 11/10
Generic Statistics
The following horses fail
So I want them all beaten
Remastered 16/1
Cloudy Glen 20/1
Good Boy Bobby 33/1
Top Ville Ben 40/1
Iceo Madrik 33/1
The Wolf 50/1
Nassalam 8/1
The Goffer 12/1
Fanion D'Estruval 33/1
Threeunderthrufive 14/1
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Cheltenham 1.30
5/2 Facile Vega, 4/1 Marine Nationale, 9/2 Il Etait Temps
10/1 Tahmuras, 11/1 Inthepocket, 14/1 High Definition
16/1 Diverge, 20/1 Chasing Fire, 20/1 Doctor Bravo
20/1 Rare Edition, 25/1 Dark Raven, 40/1 Strong Leader
66/1 Fennor Cross, 200/1 Palace Boy.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
FACILE VEGA
Once unbeaten and odds on
Seeks redemption after a flop
Several decent judges like him
Others say he is lay of the festival
I am more positive than negative
Mainly because of the opposition
Hard to trust the English horses
TAHMURAS must be respected
But not keen on his sire Falco
And he needs to improve a lot
28 of the previous 29 winners
Had at least 4 career starts
The only horse that had less
Was Constitution Hill last year
INTHEPOCKET has 3 races
His problem is inexperience
HIGH DEFINITION 2 hurdle runs
Won on debut then unseated
When only at the 4th last time
Too raw a profile for comfort
DOCTOR BRAVO is interesting
Gordon Elliott has been bullish
But has now raced just 4 times
DIVERGE is Mullins 3rd string
IL ETAIT TEMPS won last time
In the race Facile Vega flopped
But connections have been clear
He is not as good as Facile Vega
IL ETAIT TEMPS may go and win
Especially if Facile Vega doesn't
But we are told he is second best
MARINE NATIONAL is a 6yo
He has 100 days off the track
Past winners absences
66 37 32 37 66 16 80 59
30 31 52 33 24 16 115 40
The 2008 winner had 115 days off
But he was older as a 7 year old
No other horse won absent as long
MARINE NATIONAL has 4 races
Past 6 year old winners
Had 4 5 15 7 8 8 8 8 runs
Only Shiskin won as a 6yo
Having under 5 career runs
He also had 3 hurdle races
MARINE NATIONAL has 2
Only sole winner aged 6
With under 3 hurdle races
That was Ebaziyan in 2007
He had 8 previous career runs
MARINE NATIONAL has had 4
No doubt a very raw profile
However
This is clearly a weak year
He may just be the best horse
And whilst my statistics say no
I would not rule him out at all
FACILE VEGA just shaded it
MARINE NATIONAL scares me
Despite quite a negative profile
My strategy will be each way
FACILE VEGA's poor last run
Allows us flexibility with staking
Room for a saver if that suits
Equally a chance to go each way
Selection
£8.50 Win Bet FACILE VEGA 5/2-9/4
£1.50 Win Bet MARINE NATIONAL 5/1
Cheltenham 2.10
6/4 El Fabiolo, 13/8 Jonbon, 6/1 Dysart Dynamo
8/1 Saint Roi, 25/1 Hollow Games, 50/1 Ha D'or
66/1 Straw Fan Jack, 100/1 Ballybreeze
100/1 Effernock Fizz
Arkle Chase
9 runners
4 dominate
Official Ratings
EL FABIOLO 162
JONBON 159
SAINT ROI 153
DYSART DYNAMO 151
SAINT ROI the 4th favourite
Can not be ruled out of this
One big concern about him
Is he the stables 3rd choice ?
Hard to know how worried to be
He may be the most exposed
But 2 of the last 5 Arkle winners
Have had similar experience
So I can't use that against him
But he did unseat last time out
His 3 main rivals look similar
With 7-8-9 career starts
With 2-3-2 chase starts
All have similar absences
EL FABIOLI is easy to like
But is the youngest of these
He has the least experience
Go back to 1997
Horses aged 6
Under 8 lifetime starts
Under 3 chase runs
Have won just 1 Arkle
Western Warhouse 33/1(2014)
That years race widely regarded
As the worst Arkle in many years
The favourite was not fit enough
EL FABIOLI would only be the 2nd
Would not reject him on that angle
But if I had to criticise one profile
Then it would have to be his one
EL FABIOLI does not offer enough
Each of the last 8 winners
And 10 of the last 11 winners
Raced 3 or more times that year
DYSART DIAMOND has 2 runs
EL FABIOLI also just the 2 runs
Shortlist
JONBON
SAINT ROI
No strong preference
But at the prices
The frame of the race
The extra experience
Going with an each way bet
Selection
STATE MAN 15/2-8/1
Each Way
Cheltenham 2.50
6/1 Corach Rambler, 7/1 Into Overdrive, 8/1 Nassalam
10/1 Oscar Elite, 11/1 Fastorslow, 12/1 The Goffer
14/1 Happygolucky, 14/1 Monbeg Genius, 14/1 The Big Breakaway
14/1 Threeunderthrufive, 16/1 Remastered, 20/1 Cloudy Glen
20/1 Tea Clipper, 28/1 Fantastikas, 28/1 Harper's Brook
33/1 Fanion D'Estruval, 33/1 Glamorgan Duke, Good Boy Bobby
33/1 Iceo Madrik, Karl Philippe, Top Ville Ben, 40/1 Laskalin
50/1 The Wolf.
Ultima Handicap Chase
Major handicap
Cheltenham Festival
Handicap Chases since 1999
Any Distance
Horses aged 6
Carrying more than 11st
Have a 0-59 record
The following pair fail this
NASSALAM
THE GOFFER
The following horses fail
One or more generic stats
Remastered 16/1
Cloudy Glen 20/1
Good Boy Bobby 33/1
Top Ville Ben 40/1
Iceo Madrik 33/1
The Wolf 50/1
Nassalam 8/1
The Goffer 12/1
Fanion D'Estruval 33/1
Threeunderthrufive 14/1
Past winners
Had the following days absence
59 25 24 70 18 45 45 45
20 18 24 24 20 94 114 101
Longest absence is 114 days
CORACH RAMBLER is a 9yo
He has a nasty 108 day break
He did win this race last year
But he has 17lbs more weight
Far fewer races this season
And a significantly longer break
Winning last year
Will convince a lot of people
He has the stamina sired by Jeremy
But will he have it in these conditions
And when underraced with a break
As none from his sire has done yet
Horses sired by Jeremy
Absent more than 65 days
Running over 3m 1f or more
Have a 0-10 record so far
This is a far better statistic
Horses sired by Jeremy
Running over 2m 6f and further
Class 2 and higher grade
When absent over 48 days
Have a 0-24 record in them
CORACH RAMBLER fails this
HAPPYGOLUCKY fails it too
TEA CLIPPER a similar issue
He faces 109 days absence
With a tough weight to carry too
Horses aged 9 or more
Coming from 2m 6f or shorter
Have a 0-43 record since 2004
The following horses fail this
HAPPYGOLUCKY
TOP VILLE BENNE
Go back to 1997
No horse aged under 8 years old
Has won absent 7 weeks or more
HARPERS BROOK fails this angle
NASSALAM fails this as well
KARL PHILIPPE lacks positives
GLAMORGAN DULE hard to like
FASTORSLOW is a 7 year old
Has 11st 9lbs and runs off 150
Past 7yo winners since 1997
Won off 148 129 143 145 132
FASTORSLOW runs off higher
Horses with 11st 9lbs or more
Have a 1-51 record since 1999
FASTORSLOW has this weight
Feel it's asking a lot for a 7yo
To defy that weight and rating
Having only had 3 chase races
He also comes from a 2m 1f race
No winners came from under 2m 4f
Horses with 11st 9lbs or more
Have a 1-51 record since 1999
THE BIG BREAKFAST has 11st 10lbs
He also has 77 days absence as well
Raced only twice in 13 months now
Cheltenham Festival
Every Handicap Chase
Going back 22 years
Run on softer than good
Horses aged 8
Carrying 11st 7lbs or more
Have a modest 1-64 record
The only 8yo doing this
Un Temps Pour Tout in 2017
Horses who have this to prove
FANION D'ESTRUVAL
THE BIG BREAKFAST
THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE
INTO OVERDRIVE is an 8yo
His challenge from a small stable
Big weight and 1 run in 108 days
He also has 78 days absence too
Horses under 9
Just 1 run in 12 weeks
Absent more than 59 days
Have a 0-27 record in this
INTO OVERDRIVE fails this
NASSALAM fails this as well
Go back to 1997
Horses absent over 70 days
Carrying 10st 12lbs or more
Have a 0-57 record in this race
The following all fail this
INTO OVERDRIVE
THE BIG BREAKFAST
GOOD BOY BOBBY
TEA CLIPPER
HAPPYGOLUCKY
CORACH RAMBLER
NASSALAM
Go back to 1997
Horses under 9 years old
Absent more than 45 days
Carrying 10st 12lbs or more
Have a 0-35 record in this race
The following all fail this
TEA CLIPPER
THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE
THE BIG BREAKFAST
NASSALAM
INTO OVERDRIVE
Shortlist
LASKALIN 50/1
MONBEG GENIUS 8/1
FANTASTIKAS 16/1
OSCAR ELITE 12/1
FANTASTIKAS is an 8 year old
He finished 7th in last years race
Last year he ran off a mark of 144
Today he only has to run off 132
Worth bearing in mind his sire
FANTASTIKAS sired by Davidoff
This sires runners over 3m +
Have a 0-28 record in all races
His runners in fields of 10 +
Over just 2m 5f and more are 0-29
His runners in Listed/Graded races
Are 0-14 over 2m 6f and further
FANTASTIKAS's stamina worries me
Thats why he is off the staking plan
LASKALIN hammered last time
Does not have too many positives
Hard to like but in several races
I have excuses for him this year
MONBEG GENIUS is a 7yo
He has 8 career starts
He has 4 chase starts
Would have liked a few more
Looked at every handicap
Run at Cheltenham festival
Mount Ida won the 2021 Kim Muir
With 9 career runs 3 chase runs
He is the only one quite similar
The rest all had a few more runs
Positive but it is a concern here
OSCAR ELITE is an 8yo
He finished 3rd in last years race
He had less experience last year
With 3 chase runs including a fall
This year he has no such worries
He jumped the last in front last year
Selection
£3.50 Each Way OSCAR ELITE 12/1
£1.00 Each Way LASKALIN 50/1-40/1
£1.00 Win Bet MONBEG GENIUS 8/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5 (6)
Cheltenham 3.30
1/3 Constitution Hill, 3/1 State Man, 12/1 Vauban
16/1 I Like To Move It, 66/1 Zanahiyr, 150/1 Jason The Militant
150/1 Not So Sleepy
Champion Hurdle
7 runners
Issues have long been clear
CONSTITUTION HILL is special
STATE MAN the clear next best
Is there any realistic hope here
That he could beat the favourite
I think there is
But there is another risk
In trying to beat the favourite
It could well cost him a place
Especially as there are just 1-2
CONSTITUTION HILL unbeaten
Has had 5 lifetime starts so far
If you include runs in France
Every Champion Hurdle winner
Going back at least 25 seasons
Had at least 8 lifetime runs
CONSTITUTION HILL has 3 less
Probably doesn't matter much
But when you factor in prices
There is only one bet I can have
And not bothered just 2 places
Selection
STATE MAN 100/30
Each Way
1/4 Odds
1-2 Places
Cheltenham 4.10
3/1 Honeysuckle, 3/1 Marie's Rock, 4/1 Epatante
15/2 Brandy Love, 9/1 Love Envoi, 10/1 Echoes In Rain
12/1 Queens Brook, 16/1 Theatre Glory, 25/1 Shewearsitwell
Mares' Hurdle 2m 6f
10 runners
2022 Result
MARIE'S ROCK won
QUEENS BROOK 2nd
ECHOES IN RAIN 5th
Official ratings
HONEYSUCKLE - 159
EPATANTE - 153
MARIE'S ROCK - 153
ECHOES IN RAIN - 152
BRANDY LOVE - 149
SHEWEARSITWELL - 148
LOVE ENVOI - 147
QUEENS BROOK - 145
THEATRE GLORY - 145
HONEYSUCKLE is well ahead
But not unreasonable to assume
She has deteriorated this season
Going to oppose her and others
Based on the following angles
Horses coming from 2m races
Those aged 8 or more are 0-20
The following horses fail this
HONEYSUCKLE
EPATANTE
Horses coming from 2m races
With over 9 runs are 0-37
The following horses fail this
ECHOES IN RAIN
EPATANTE
HONEYSUCKLE
HONEYSUCKLE maybe underraced
With just 1 run in the last 100 days
No horses aged 8 or more have won
Having just 1 run in the last 3 months
HONEYSUCKLE would be the first
MARIE'S ROCK would be as well
When she won this race last year
She had 5 prep runs that season
This year she has had only 1 run
Horses aged 8 or more
With just 1 run in 3 months
Have a 0-18 record in this
The following horses fail this
HONEYSUCKLE
SHEWEARSITWELL
MARIE'S ROCK
Horses with 9 or more runs
With just 1 run in the last 3 months
Have a 0-44 record in this
The following horses fail this
HONEYSUCKLE
SHEWEARSITWELL
ECHOES IN RAIN
MARIE'S ROCK
LOVE ENVOI
THEATRE GLORY makes no appeal
She is the stables third string here
Shortlist
LOVE ENVOI is a 7 year old
Won the mares novice last season
Has continued to improve since
May need to improve more again
And has that 0-44 stat against her
Have to argue that is forgivable
She has 9 runs and only fails it
By the one single career start
BRANDY LOVE
QUEENS BROOK
Both met each other last time
Come from the best trial race
Punchestowns Quevaga Hurdle
QUEENS BROOK won that race
BRANDY LOVE finished in third
Having her 1st run this season
Horses with under 9 runs
Having 1 run in 3 months
Have won 5 past renewals
Those finishing 1-2-3 last time
Running over 2m 4f or shorter
Have a decent 5-14 record
BRANDY LOVE has this profile
QUEENS BROOK is overpriced
She was 2nd in last years race
Having had just 1 run in 113 days
She is significantly a big mare
Who is not the easiest to train
And takes a bit of getting fit
She may have needed it last year
This year she has more races
Selection
£3.50 Each Way QUEENS BROOK 20/1
£1.50 Win Bet BRANDY LOVE 5/1 +
£1.50 Win Bet LOVE ENVOI 5/1
Cheltenham 4.50
4/1 Tekao, 11/2 Byker, 7/1 Bad, 10/1 Risk Belle
11/1 Sir Allen, 12/1 Perseus Way, 14/1 Jazzy Matty
16/1 Metamorpheus, Punta Del Este, Sundial
20/1 Afadil, 20/1 Samuel Spade, 20/1 Shared
25/1 Mighty Mo Missouri, Morning Soldier
28/1 Ludus, 33/1 Fils De Roi, Mctigue, Mr Freedom
33/1 Romancero Le Dun, 50/1 Action Motion
50/1 Gordons Aura.
Boodles Juvenile Handicap
This race is always tough
History of regular shocks
Sent some statistics recently
Just seeing what they tell us
MCTIGUE has too much weight
MIGHTY MO MISSOURI is not matchable
Horses from maiden hurdles are 0-37
Past winners
Had the following lifetime starts
12 5 19 16 6 3 5 14
12 7 13 4 16 5 13 6 6
We have had a winner with 3 runs
16 of the 18 previous winners
Had at least 5 career starts
Most winners battle hardened
Opposing those with 3 runs
Given the ground is so soft
BAD only has 3 career runs
Faces 114 days absence too
ROMANCERO LE DUN fails too
PUNTA DEL ESTE does as well
Success or failure in this
May depend on this angle working
Horses 2nd last time out are 0-83
Horses 3rd last time out are 0-68
Horses finishing 2nd/3rd last time
Have a combined 0-151 record
Some logic behind that statistic
If they were 2nd or 3rd last time
Then they were not good enough
They are unlikely to win this race
The following horses all fail this
TEKAO
MIGHTY MO MISSOURI
PERSEUS WAY
BYKER
MORNING SOLDIER
FILS DE ROI
PUNTA DEL ESTE
LUDUS
MR FREEDOM
Horses from handicaps
Have a poor 1-56 record
She was a filly with 3 days off
Opposing the handicappers
This takes out the following
SUNDIAL
ACTION MOTION
RISK BELLE also fails this
She is a filly unseating last time
AFADIL was hammered last time
GORDONS AURA out from a flat race
SHARED is rated too low
You want to be rated 125 +
This is an interesting new statistic
Horses with under 8 career runs
Beaten in a Novice Hurdle last time
Have a vicious 0-70 record in this
The following horses all fail this stat
JAZZY MATTY
METAMORPHEUS
AFADILPUNTA DEL ESTE
Horses who pass my angles
SIR ALLEN 14/1
SAMUEL SPADE 22/1
We could guess among these
SIR ALLEN interests me more
The 2019 2020 222 winners
All won the same Naas Novice
And came here to win this race
SIR ALLEN must be shortlisted
BYKER was 3rd in that novice
But was he there to win that day ?
Some say the Irish horses
Have been punished this year
And do not look well handicapped
Maybe but this is a strange renewal
As we have a no hoper topweight
Who is rated 7lbs more than them all
He pushes everyone's weight down
I like the Irish horses laid out
TEKAO has been
He could be a Grade 1 horse
Fails the 2nd/3rd last time angle
But why not play him as a place bet
BYKER fails the same angle
But he only ran in a 6 horse race
Finishing 3rd he was not "placed"
And has been laid out for this race
Shortlist
TEKAO 4/1
BYKER 6/1
SIR ALLEN 12/1
Selection
£4.00 Win Bet SIR ALLEN 12/1
£5.00 Place Bet TEKAO 4/5-10/11
£1.00 Win Bet BYKER 7/1
Cheltenham 5.30
11/10 Gaillard Du Mesnil, 5/1 Chemical Energy
6/1 Mahler Mission, 7/1 Minella Crooner, 9/1 Mister Coffey
20/1 Tenzing, 25/1 Fakiera, 50/1 Coolvalla, 66/1 Malinello
100/1 Bellatrixsa.
National Hunt Chase 3m 6f
GAILLARD DU MESNIL
Been a short price for a while now
Official ratings show thats justified
Official Ratings
155 Gaillard Du Mesnil
147 Chemical Energy
146 Mahler Mission
146 Minella Crooner
145 Mister Coffey
He has 8lbs in hand on his rating
He probably will stay this distance
But his sire's record is interesting
Horses sired by Saint Des Saints
Running over 3m 5f and more
Listed and Graded races
On ground softer than good
Have a 0-10 record so far
GAILLARD DU MESNIL 11th to try
Not worried too much by that issue
He looks interesting as a saver bet
CHEMICAL ENERGY is a 7 year old
I backed him at the start of the year
On the assumption he would be fresh
And was going straight to this race
Gordon Elliot changed these plans
Felt the horse badly needed a run
He disappointed in that prep race
Hoping to lay most of my bet off
He has raced once in just 143 days
Doubt that is enough on the ground
TENZING has been backed
Not impossible to like
But he is just a 6yo
They are 1-53 in this race
MISTER COFFEY is an 8 year old
Had a light season with just 2 runs
Will 2 runs be enough in 11 months ?
My stats suggest it may be a problem
Because he is now an 8 year old
He also comes from a handicap too
Horses coming from a handicap
Have a very weak 1-124 record
Those from Class 2 or lower 0-90
Those aged under 10 years old 0-114
MISTER COFFEY fails these angles
MAHLER MISSION
MINELLA CROONER
Both very similar profiles
They are 7 year olds
Both have 4 chase runs
Both have 10 career runs
MAHLER MISSION officially 7 years old
But he is actually 6 years and 9 months
Hard to know the significance of that
One angle he does fail in this race
If you go back to 2004
Look at every runner in it
Who in the previous 3 months
Had more than 2 runs in that time
You find a 0-84 record from them
MAHLER MISSION faces this issue
FAKIERA has the same problem
MINELLA CROONER
May just be safer of the pair
Selection
£5.00 Win Bet MINELLA CROONER 8/1
£5.00 Win Bet GAILLARD DU MESNIL 11/10