Lingfield 1.23

£4.00 Win Crimson King 9/1

£6.00 Win Marion's Boy 6/1

Newbury 1.50

£4.25 Each Way Bridge North 9/1-10/1

£1.50 Win Bet Annual Invictus 6/1

Uttoxeter 2.10

Greenrock Abbey 11/4-3/1

Win Bet

Naas 2.15

Franciscan Rock 13/8

Win Bet

Lingfield 2.33

£8.50 Win Bet Cotopaxi Moon 9/4

£1.50 Win Bet Endued 5/1

Naas 2.50

£6.50 Win Bet Luimneach 11/2-5/1

£2.00 Win Bet Ernie From Nurney 9/2-5/1

£1.50 Win Bet Listenheretomejack 6/1-11/2

Newbury 3.35

£4.50 Each Way Master Chewy 8/1-9/1

£1.00 Win Bet Teddy Blue 14/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

Newbury 4.10

Holetown Hero 5/2

Win Bet

Warwick 4.23

£7.00 Win Bet After The Fox 9/1

£1.50 Win Bet Waterloo Quay 5/1

£1.50 Win Bet Guguss Collonges 7/1

£10 Novelty bet

Will not be having it myself

Takes a bit too much effort

But it is how I'd start the day

Lingfield 1.23 - Crimson King 9/1

Lingfield 1.23 - Marion's Boy 6/1

x

Newbury 1.50 - Bridge North 9/1-10/1

Newbury 1.50 - Annual Invictus 6/1

4 x £2.50 Win Doubles

That's just an alternative suggestion

The official selections/stakes stand

Preview Selections

Yesterday's Summary

Mixed bag in the 5 previews

Officially it went P P L W W

But that probably flattered us

Another Angel won as a saver

I decided to go off message

Bet Stroxx each way instead

That turned out badly in 4th

Apologies if you followed me

Conquredalofeurope flopped

But our saver bet won instead

Bretney hacked up won at 10/1

All looks so easy in hindsight

That saver was not guesswork

But he pulled up 5 days before

Couldn't make the mental leap

To trust him as the first choice

Paid the price for that decision

But at least we returned stakes

Ghostly flopped at southwell

Pulled hard all the way round

Never settled it killed his chance

He was among the leaders

The pace collapsed at the end

As they ran round the last bend

The horses in 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

All failed to finish in the places

Down to the pace collapsing

The race wasn't run to suit him

He spoilt his chance hanging

Pleasing the last 2 bets did win

Killer Kane did the job nicely

Crambo scraped home in 1st

Made a meal of it at short odds

Made it look more respectable

On paper it wasn't a bad day

But that probably flattered us

We made a few poor decisions

The winners we had were fine

I'd have preferred others instead

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Lingfield 1.23

9/4 Buxted Too, 5/2 Dembe, 6/1 Marion's Boy

7/1 Crimson King, 7/1 Minister For Magic

8/1 Liverpool Knight, 12/1 Golden Chain

20/1 Lawn Ranger.

12f Handicap

Apprentice rider

Should not need to explain

How much I hate betting here

The only reason I am doing

The favourite has a profile

That I can not match anywhere

12f Apprentice Handicaps

Run any time of the year

Both on turf and sand

Horses aged 5 or older

More than 8 lifetime runs

Coming from 8f or shorter

Absent more than 2 weeks

Have a 0-43 record in them

DEMBE shares this profile

Won't be at all surprised

If he wins and sickens me

But going to follow that stat

And guess the best alternative

MINISTER FOR MAGIC

Looks underraced and unsafe

BUXTED TOO is on a hattrick

But he is stepping up in grade

And has never ran here before

LIVERPOOL RANGER unsafe

Hammered last time over hurdles

LAWN RANGER absent too long

GOLDEN CHAIN is a 4yo filly

Up in distance and class here

With 41 days off not sold enough

Shortlisting 2 horses

Selection

£4.00 Win CRIMSON KING 9/1

£6.00 Win MARIONS BOY 6/1

Newbury 1.50

3/1 Barbados Buck's, 6/1 Annual Invictus,

6/1 Jatiluwih, 6/1 Regarding Ruth

9/1 Jay Bee Why, 10/1 Bridge North

11/1 Flemenstide 14/1 Sirobbie.

Handicap Hurdle 3m

Complicated race

With the ground being fast

BARBADOS BUCKS is an 8yo

Ground won't be perfect for him

Might win but loos beatable

History of this race shows

Horses with over 11 hurdle runs

Underperform in this handicap

SIROBBIE exposed with 29 runs

REGARDING RUTH does as well

And faces a massive absence too

Past renewals show

Horses aged 8 or more

Coming up in distance

Have a 0-49 record in them

JAY BEE WHY has this problem

FLEMENSTIDE is short of runs

JATILUWIH has a chance

ANNUAL INVICTUS is topweight

He could outclass this field if right

Only have to forgive him 1 run

When pulling up Boxing day

That was after two creditable runs

In staying handicaps at Cheltenham

The race came quickly after those

Ground wont be a problem

He holds a Cheltenham track record

Clear evidence he can handle this

Obviously last time is the concern

If he returns to form he can win this

But he is worryingly weak in market

Going to make him the saver bet

BRIDGE NORTH is a 7yo

Unclear if he is running well enough

But he set a fast pace at Cheltenham

Think he paid a big price for that

Youngest horse and overpriced

Selection

£4.25 Each Way BRIDGE NORTH 9/1-10/1

£1.50 Win Bet ANNUAL INVICTUS 6/1

Uttoxeter 2.10

5/2 Marta Des Mottes, 11/4 Greenrock Abbey

7/2 Tarahumara, 8/1 Risk D'Argent, 12/1 Fabrique En France

12/1 Jack's A Legend, 14/1 Ballycallan Fame, 16/1 Balagan.

Novice Handicap Chase 2m

TARAHUMARA ran twice

Both runs last year over hurdles

Chase debut with 315 days off

Could be well treated off just 108

Will have plenty of support here

But has a worryingly raw profile

February

Novice Handicap Chases

Any distance

Any Class

Chase debutants

Under 7 lifetime starts

Absent more than 163 days

Have a 0-27 record in them

RISK D'ARGENT is a 7yo

Beaten 34 lengths on chase debut

Didn't jump well only 12 days ago

This may come a bit too quickly

BALAGAN has no chase form

Not enough positives in his profile

MARTA DES MOTTES shortlistable

She clearly has the ability to win

But she is a mare absent 64 days

February

Novice Handicap Chases

Any distance

Any Class

Female horses

More than 12 career runs

Absent more than 29 days

Return a 0-42 record

MARTA DES MOTTES fails this

January to September

Novice Handicap Chases

Any distance

Any Class

With over 4 runners

Female horses

Under 8 years old

More than 12 career runs

Absent more than 35 days

Carrying 11st or more

Return a 0-57 record in them

MARTA DES MOTTES fails this

GREENROCK ABBEY a 7yo

Won a Novice last time out

We backed him that day

Better profile than his dangers

Selection

GREENROCK ABBEY11/4-3/1

Win Bet

Naas 2.15

2/1 Franciscan Rock, 3/1 Spillane's Tower

4/1 Raglan Road, 6/1 Neigh Botha, Teuchters Glory

7/1 Workforadime, 12/1 Smooth Player, 16/1 An Forghas

40/1 Belper, Hunt Museum, Micheal's Magic, Shanroe Click

50/1 Glenabbey, 50/1 Il Silenzio, 100/1 Asatisfiedmind

100/1 Finished Article, I'm For Home, Mighty Oak Lad

100/1 Shanroe Act, 150/1 Coco Kolada, 200/1 Atacanter

200/1 Billies Filly, Ozark Thunder, Pirate Bonnie.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 3f

FRANCISCAN ROCK

Felt he would have too much

But this is a rather big field

His 2 main dangers are raw

Think we should beat both

They are inexperienced 5yo's

But you can't really judge them

Or the improvement they offer

That dents confidence a bit

The big field does as well

But he has a clear edge

And I think he should take it

Selection

FRANCISCAN ROCK 13/8

Win Bet

Lingfield 2.33

6/4 Divine Rapture, 2/1 Cotopaxi Moon

3/1 Endued, 6/1 Into The Spotlight

50/1 Afternoon Tea.

8f Novice

Horses aged 4 or more

DIVINE RAPTURE

Unraced 4yo filly

Sired by Dark Angel

Trying to win over a mile

Consulted by breeding stats

They say whilst it's not idea

Not enough evidence overall

So don't make a song and dance

James Tate trains her

Not my favourite trainer

INTO THE SPOTLIGHT

Was recently trained by Tate

But just downgraded stables

And for just £3k so not for me

COTOPAXI MOON

2 runs

What I like about him

On both his career runs

He had the worst draws

Opposed him on debut

Because of a draw angle

Last time out beaten 4/7

Drawn 13 of 13 a Kempton

He is the most likely winner

But a Godolphin cast off

Would be easy to overrate

ENDURED is a threat

The obvious question

Is he being handicapped

Can not be sure about this

But going to make him saver

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet COTOPAXI MOON 9/4

£1.50 Win Bet ENDURED 5/1

Naas 2.50

5/1 Listenheretomejack, 6/1 Ernie From Nurney

13/2 Knocknagappagh, 7/1 Look Dont Touch

15/2 By Your Side 10/1 Got Grey, 11/1 Falvio

12/1 Bal De Rio, 12/1Jump The Shark, 12/1 Luimneach

14/1 Only One Plan, 20/1 Clever Currency, 20/1 Park Hind

25/1 Call Me Rocky, Danza Della Luna, 33/1 Insane Bolt.

Handicap Hurdle 2m

The history of this race

Show older horses win

Age of previous winners

7 6 8 7 13 7 9 7 6 9 8

Against the 4 year olds

With under 4 hurdle run

They look inexperienced

Naas

Handicap Hurdles

Any distance

Any class

Any time of year

Horses aged 4

Under 4 hurdle starts

Have a weak 1-48 record

The following all fail this

DANZA DELLA LUNA

GOT GREY

February

Naas Handicap Hurdles

Any distance

Any class

Horses aged 4

Under 4 hurdle runs

Have a 0-23 record

The following all fail this

DANZA DELLA LUNA

GOT GREY

BY YOUR SIDE is a 4yo

He has the opposite problem

Overexposed for a 4 year old

Having 14 flat runs and 5 hurdles

Can not match him to any winner

11 Past renewals

Horses aged 4 are 0-12

Horses aged 5 are 0-34

No 5yo has won this (0-34)

FALVIO a 5yo hasn't done much

JUMP THE SHARK is a 5yo

He only has 3 hurdle races

No past winner had under 4

Most winners

Had 4-12 hurdle races

Horses with 13 or more

Have a modest 1-30 record

BAL DE RIO has 32 hurdles

He 2 years older than the rest

INSANE BOLT has 19 hurdles

He looks underraced this year

LOOK DONT TOUCH an 8yo

Has had 14 hurdle races now

That's 2 more than is ideal

Has to carry 12st weight too

CLEVER CURRENCY a 6yo

Faces 87 days off the track

Having raced 25 times before

Naas

Handicap Hurdles

Any class

Any distance

Any time of year

Horses under 8

Over 17 career starts

Absent over 36 days

Have a 0-40 record

CLEVER CURRENCY fails this

May not be the right type

Naas

Handicap Hurdles

Any class

Any distance

Any time of year

Horses aged 6

Over 10 hurdle runs

Carrying 10st 7lbs or more

Have a 0-40 record in them

The following all fail this

CLEVER CURRENCY

CALL ME ROCKY

PARK HIND also fails it

She is a mare from a yard

Without any career wins

Just downgraded recently

KNOCKNAGAPPAGH is a mare

Females are 0-27 in this race

But has positives in other ares

Could easily shortlist her here

But there is the mare statistic

She is not the stables number 1

And there is a best profile in this

And she is not an exact match

She is my 3rd choice to win this

Shortlist

Most winners

Had 4-12 hurdle races

Horses with 13 or more

Have a modest 1-30 record

LISTENTOMEJACK fails this

But only just with 15 hurdles

Quite happy to forgive him that

As a fit and in form older horse

Best Profile

Male horses

Aged 6-7-8-9

Under 12 hurdle races

Running within 5 months

Carrying 11st 11lbs or less

Horses with the above profile

Won this race in these years

2010 2012 2014 2015 2016

2017 2019 2020 2021 2022

The following have this profile

ERNIE FROM NURNEY

ONLY ONE PLAN

LUIMNEACH

ONLY ONE PLAN has positives

But just 1 run in the last 134 days

Thats fine but he is rated only 85

Every other horse is rated 97 +

Have to question his class here

LUIMNEACH makes best profile

ERNIE FROM NURNEY does too

Both have similar profiles

6 career starts

Down from 2m 4f races

None like them won in this race

But several did at other tracks

Neither appealed each way

Decided to put 3 on the staking

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet LUIMNEACH 11/2-5/1

£2.00 Win Bet ERNIE FROM NURNEY 9/2-5/1

£1.50 Win Bet LISTENTOMEJACK 6/1-11/2

Newbury 3.35

7/2 Filey Bay, 13/2 Rubaud, 8/1 Icare Allen

9/1 Master Chewy, 11/1 Monviel 11/1 No Ordinary Joe

12/1 Yorksea, 14/1 Aucunrisque 14/1 Teddy Blue

16/1 Deere Mark, 16/1 Glory And Fortune 18/1 Faivoir

20/1 Highway One O Two, 22/1 Onemorefortheroad

25/1 Tritonic, 33/1 Restitution, 50/1 Glorious Zoff.

Betfair Hurdle

FILEY BAY heads the market

He is a 7 year old off 72 days

Fails this combination statistic

Go back to 2007

Handicap hurdles

Listed and Graded races

Any time of the season

Run over 2m 2f and shorter

Horses aged 7 or more

Absent more than 62 days

Coming from non graded races

Under 12 career starts

Return a 0-18 record in them

FILEY BAY fails this 0-18 stat

Last year we had a shock winner

A stat busting 7 year old winner

Much of the reason for that result

We had an unusually small field

Just 14 ran several older horses

Betfair Hurdle

Since 2005

Horses aged 7 or older

Have a poor 1-123 record

Happy to oppose these 8yo's

ONEMOREFROMTHEROAD

HIGHWAYONEORTWO

FAVOIR with 1 run this year

GLORY FORTUNE is an 8yo

Won this last year when a 7yo

But looks unlikely to repeat it

You don't want a poor last run

Horses beaten over 16 lengths

Have a worrying 1-101 record

In the last 21 renewals of this

Only the 2007 overcame this

GLORY FORTUNE fails this

HIGHWAYONEORTWO does

NO ORDINARY JOE is a 7yo

Given just 1 run in 1 months

May not be safe to trust him

AUCUNRISQUE also a 7yo

He comes here from chasing

Not ran over hurdles in 10 months

Too many layers of uncertainty

He does survive the big angles

But no winners came via chases

Horses with just 1 run this year

Throw up a poor overall record

ICARE ALLEN has raced once

Asking a lot with 11st 12lbs

Go back to 2007

January to October

Graded Handicap Hurdles

Any distance in these 10 months

Horses aged 5

More than 4 career starts

Absent more than 29 days

Carrying 11st or more

Have a 0-92 record in them

ICARE ALLEN fails this stat

TRITONIC has 1 run in 98 days

Hammered in it with no promise

Some of these may lack class

RESTITUTION is up 2 grades

GLORIOUS ZOFF up 3 grades

Horses winning last time

Last won this race in 2013

Since than all 45 to try lost

Go back to 2003

Horses winning last time

Have won 5 recent races

Those with 4 + hurdle runs

Have a 0-66 record in them

Several already rejected

Fail this 0-66 statistic

So do the following horses

FILEY BAY

DEERE MARK

YORKSEA

MONVIEL

TEDDY BLUE

MONVIEL is a 6 year old

He faces 85 days off the track

Having raced once in 11 months

Go back to 2011

Horses from handicap hurdles

That was in class 2 or lower

Have a 0-67 record in this

YORKSEA has this problem

Not first choice up 3 grades

DEERE MARK fails this too

Other horses failing this

MONVIEL

FILEY BAY

NO ORDINARY JOE

Shortlist

TEDDY BLUE 16/1-20/1

MASTER CHEWEY 8/1-9/1

Gary Moore does well here

Won a maiden hurdle last time

Horses twice won from maidens

Hard to read but not ruled out

He's stablemate of Yorksea

Either could win but on history

This horse may be more suitable

RUBAUD a 5yo off 47 days

Can not be ruled out either

Top stable will like the ground

But he has a confused profile

If I include his French flat runs

I can criticise him on many fronts

Judge him on British form only

Then his profile works better

MASTER CHEWEY

Rated only 124

Horses rated 131 or lower

Are 0-36 record since 2009

Not so worried about that

It's not a high class renewal

This horse cost 300k

Must be well treated off 124

Not done much wrong yet

He fell at the last at Ascot

When he'd have won easily

Did nothing wrong next time

Splitting last time out winners

When second at Cheltenham

Plumpton too sharp past time

He may not have been ready

Light weight and no penalties

TEDDY BLUE

Has significant momentum

Not bothered about the stat

He failed earlier in the piece

Had a canter at long odds on

Has to be a saver bet at least

Selection

£4.50 Each Way MASTER CHEWEY 8/1-9/1

£1.00 Win Bet TEDDY BLUE 14/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

Newbury 4.10

5/2 Arqoob, 3/1 Holetown Hero, 4/1 Russian Ruler

6/1 Love Is Golden, 7/1 Way Out 25/1 Benefact

25/1 Starevitch, 25/1 Time To Dazzle

33/1 Ace Rothstein, 100/1 Abbeyhill.

Novice Hurdle 2m

RUSSIAN RULER

Big reputation last year

Has the form and potential

To take care of these horses

But beaten on seasonal debut

Stunk the place out at Chepstow

Pulled up there when favourite

Hard to know what to expect

ARQOOD might win

Not as sexy as Russian Ruler

Inferior profile to Holetown Hero

Nobody will be surprised if he wins

But he has had just 1 hurdle run

Only that run in the last 140 days

And was very exposed on the flat

HOLETOWN HERO

Won a Novice hurdle 4 days ago

Looked at similar profiles

Novice hurdles

Any distance

Any time of year

Horses aged 5 or more

Winning a Novice last time

Running in last 6 days

Have a smart 10-15 record

HOLETOWN HERO shares this

Best profile in this by some way

He should be the selection

Russian Ruler frightens me

Henderson novices at Newbury

We could bet them both

Not ideal but the alternative

Getting done by him is painful

HOLETOWN HERO each way

Would be the other option here

Not that many would relish that

Selection

HOLETOWN HERO 5/2

Win Bet

Warwick 4.23

7/4 Dime Store Cowgirl, 9/2 Imperial Alex, Waterloo Quay

7/1 Guguss Collonges, 15/2 Yeomen Warder, 12/1 After The Fox

14/1 Mole Court, 25/1 Dedanser, Hunsbury, 33/1 Champs Hill

50/1 Mr Sociable, 66/1 Winter Getaway.

DIME STORE COWGIRL

Older mare winning last time

She takes a 5f step up in trip

Ran her profile it is a concern

No mare like her is any match

Go back to 2007

Handicap Hurdles

Run over 2m 5f or more

Open to both sexes

Any class of race

Any time of year

Female horses

Coming from 2m hurdles

Running within 29 days

Carrying 10st 13lbs or more

Have a 0-55 record in them all

DIME STORE COWGIRL fails this

Looking at a safe alternative

IMPERIAL ALEX is a bit too raw

YEOMAN WARDER is the same

Possibles

MOLE COUNT could improve

GUGUSS COLLONGES a 7yo

May win but comes via chasing

WATERLOO QUAY is a 7yo

Offers as much as any others

Beaten last time by an improver

Who was landing a hat trick there

Rated 87 he's a bit short on class

AFTER THE FOX is out of form

Requires a leap of faith to consider

But he was doing fine last time out

Before something affected him

May have got his heels clipped

In the end beaten a long 85 lengths

But there looked an excuse for it

Like the shortlist

But any could win or unplace

So going for this strategy

£7.00 Win Bet AFTER THE FOX 9/1

£1.50 Win Bet WATERLOO QUAY 7/1

£1.50 Win Bet GUGUSS COLLONGES 7/1