Slim pickings today.
Today's Best Bet and only bet
Taunton 3.30
HIDDEN BEAUTY 5/4-11/10
Win Bet
Last message was on Sunday
It appeared to be competitive
Results finished L P L W P P
The best bet was the winner
State Man impressive doing it
More about him later this week
When I do the Supreme novice
Saturday an account bet winner
Sunday a best bet winner as well
From that perspective we did ok
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Taunton 3.30
6/4 Hidden Beauty, 9/4 Passing Reflection
3/1 Inspiratrice, 8/1 Parikarma, 20/1 Faerie Cutlass
50/1 Blue Anchor, 66/1 Sawpit Samantha.
Mares Novice Hurdle 2m
HIDDEN BEAUTY won last time
Almost always a desirable profile
In similar mares novice hurdles
PASSING REFLECTION was 2nd
She was having her hurdling debut
No unrealistic to imagine her winning
Good stable increased that prospect
But statistics show similar profiles
Don't win as often as they should
February
Mares Novice Hurdles
Run over 2m 2f or less
Horses aged 5
Under 4 runs
Bumper form
1 hurdle start
Have a 1-47 record
Those beaten last time
Have a 0-45 record in them
PASSING REFLECTION fails this
Might but but staying with the horse
That has just beaten her last time
INSPIRATRICE is a 4yo
Never started shorter then 50/1
Was 200/1 winning a juvenile hurdle
Quite happy to reject her claims
HIDDEN BEAUTY
Just looks the stronger option
Selection
HIDDEN BEAUTY 5/4-11/10
Win Bet
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Saturday's big race
Newbury's Betfair Hurdle
Sent some angles already
Will cover it at some stage
Not a favourite race of mine
Hear it could be fast ground
Firm in the going description
Would panic lots of trainers
Could end up a smaller field
Like last year with 14 runners
No plans to target this race
Cheltenham 2023
Starting some prep work
Most days hope to do 1 race
Obviously no final conclusions
When you arrive at the race
It looks so different on the day
More just raising a few issues
Starting off with the big one
The Cheltenham Gold Cup
Ante Post Preview
Friday 17th March
Cheltenham 3.30
Cheltenham Gold Cup
7/4 Galopin Des Champs, 8/1 A Plus Tard, 8/1 Stattler
8/1 Noble Yeats, 8/1 Bravemansgame, 14/1 Conflated
14/1 Ahoy Senor, 20/1 Protektorat, 25/1 Minella Indo
25/1 Hewick, 25/1 Sounds Russian, 50/1 Monkfish
66/1 Shishkin, 66/1 Capodanno, 66/1 Royale Pagaille
66/1 The Real Whacker
Number of Chase runs
15 A Plus Tard
14 Minella Indo
14 Conflated
12 Noble Yeats
11 Protektorat
10 Ahoy Senor
7 Bravemansgame
6 Galopin Des Champs
5 Stattler
MINELLA INDO is now too old
Recent winners
Had the following absences
80 72 73 34 33 64 34 33
104 79 62 83 77 34 34
HEWICK hasn't run in 153 days
A PLUS TARD no runs in 118 days
Both absent longer than all winners
He has had an interrupted season
Past winners aged 9 like him
Needed more runs that season
A PLUS TARD does not appeal
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS
12 runs
6 chases
Just about fine with that
I'd have liked another run
But will not be failing him
He is short around 7/4
Will not be the final selection
But he could be a saver bet
What worries me as a 7yo
The 6 main dangers to him
Are all aged 8 8 8 8 8 9
Born in May 2016
He will be 6 years 10 months old
So he is not technically a 7yo yet
Horses aged 8
With 7-13 chase runs
Won 4 of the last 5 Gold Cups
The following horses match this
NOBLE YEARS
BRAVEMANSGAME
AHOY SENOR
PROTEKTORAT
Horses aged 8
Under 13 chase runs
Under 21 career starts
Winning last time out
Absent over 4 weeks
Coming from a graded chase
Have a 7-19 record since 2000
The following horses match this
BRAVEMANSGAME
AHOY SENOR
The problem with this pair
May well be a lack of stamina
BRAVEMANSGAME
Comes from a sire who so far
Has not bred a winner past 3m
AHOY SENOR has won 3m 1f
But sired by Dylan Thomas
I just don't feel very reassured
STATTLER is an 8yo
With 5 chase runs to date
He has the least experience
That must be a consideration
Coming from an unsafe sire
Horses sired by Stowaway
Running over 3m 2f and more
Class 2 and higher races
With more than 7 runners
Return a 0-67 record so far
To be fair
He's won over 3m 6f here
Albeit in a small 6 runner field
So I would not argue non stayer
And 8 year olds twice won this
With fewer than 6 chase runs
STATTLER could be an option
For the selection despite all that
CONFLATED probably wont be
Fell on his only run at Cheltenham
Just expect to fancy others more
PROTEKTORAT
Had been dismissive about him
But feel I've underestimated him
I would want him on my side 20/1
He was 3rd in last years Gold Cup
Beaten 17 lengths a bit offputting
But he had plenty of excuses too
He smashed into the last fence
But showed great fighting qualities
He failed angles last year too
Maybe underaced as a 7yo then
He failed a breeding stat last year
One that he does not fail this year
But more importantly last year
He faced the longest absence
Brilliant trainer not yet ruled out
To balance that
Horses from the Cotswold Chase
Have a 0-23 record none have won
AHOY SENOR has this problem
NOBLE YEATS has this problem
How big a problem I don't know
Many that failed were outsiders
Only 1 horses started under 8/1
That was Santini (2nd in 2020)
But that year the Cotswold chase
Was not run at Cheltenham
PROTEKTORAT
Comes from the Cotswold Chase
But had an easier race than others
Was said to have needed the run
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS
Will not be final selection
Considered as a saver bet
If that is the route we decide
PROTEKTORAT 16/1-20/1
If the race was run today
Staking £0.50 to win 20/1
Looks quite a sensible bet
Potential to increased that too
Too early to say
But not impossible he is the bet
Other Positives
NOBLE YEATS 8/1
STATTLER 8/1
Great write up John. Only had a quick look ahead to the Gold Cup and Galopin Des Champs is also top of my shortlist but agree that the price is too short. Hopefully we can find some value closer to the big day.