No Message tomorrow
Preview Selections
Doncaster 1.35
£5.00 Win Bet Two Brothers 6/1
£5.00 Place Bet Torcello 1/1
Leopardstown 2.00
£5.00 Win Bet Bold As Love 3/1-11/4
£5.00 Place Bet Persian Jewel 10/11
Ascot 2.25
£7.50 Win Bet Upton Road 11/2
£2.50 Win Bet Eaton Collina 3/1-11/4
Leopardstown 2.35
Hans Andersen 4/5
Win Bet
Doncaster 3.20
£3.00 Each Way Swayze 16/1
£2.00 Each Way Another Investment 16/1
Downpatrick 4.00
£3.50 Each Way Forza Milan 28/1
£2.00 Win Bet Wa Wa 4/1
£1.00 Win Bet Space Cadet 20/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Leopardstown 4.20
Dubawi Spectre 6/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Ascot 4.45
£7.00 Win Bet Saint Xavier 7/1
£3.00 Win Bet Larry 5/2
Yesterday's Summary
Hoped for a little better yesterday
But wasn't expecting much more
Locked in to 1 meeting on heavy
Winners were hard to come by
The account bet at least survived
AL MUBHIR placed coming in 5th
Felt that was a pretty decent run
He had a lot in the tank at the end
Had not been stressed to get 5th
Expected better but hit the frame
It was important for the message
Which otherwise struggled a bit
Like many horses on the ground
It did not cope well in many races
Didn't have many options really
Unimpressive with few positives
The main bet returned our stake
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Doncaster 1.35
11/4 Star Angel, 5/1 Torcello, 6/1 Captain Haddock
6/1 Two Brothers, 8/1 Clansman, 8/1 Mister Camacho
12/1 Carrigillihy, 14/1 Longclaw, 16/1 Cogital, 20/1 Quian
25/1 Maffeo Barberini, 33/1 Mujid.
12 Handicap
Amateur jockeys
7 Renewals
Every past winner of this
Had at least 8 career runs
Had at least 2 recent runs
STAR ANGEL only has 4 runs
And has raced once this year
That does feel on the raw side
She is only a 4 year old filly
January to June
Amateur Riders Handicaps
Both grass and sand
Run over any distance
Fillies aged 4
Under 6 career starts
Return a 0-54 record in them
STAR ANGEL has this profile
Ran some sire statistics
Which had winners over this far
With an absence on soft ground
The following are from sires
Whose runners have struggled
MAFFEIO BARBERINI
MISTER CAMACHO
COGITAL
CAPTAIN HADDOCK
CAPTAIN HADDOCK is from a sire
Whose runners absent as long as him
Have yet to win a race beyond 1m 2f
MUJID out of the handicap
May not have enough class
QUAIN has a difficult draw
Makes little obvious appeal
TORCELLO is a 9 year old
Oldest horse
Biggest weight
Several months off
This may or may not work
March to July
Amateur Riders Handicaps
Any distance
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent over 44 days
Carrying 10st 3lbs or more
Return a 1-79 record in them
OIn Good or softer ground
That record becomes 0-50
TORCELLO fails that angle
COGITAL also fails it too
CLANSMAN is a 5yo
He has not run in 178 days
Look at his trainers record
Trainer Liam Bailey
His runners absent over 70 days
Have a very weak 1-90 record
CLANSMAN is hard to trust
With so long off the track
LONGCLAW has a break
Normally needs his first run
His jockey also very inexperienced
CARRIGILLIHY of 67 days
No negative but no obvious reason
Why we should choose him here
His 4 wins were all accomplished
With runs within the last fortnight
TWO BROTHERS is left
Shortlistable but known unknowns
Can not be sure he is fit enough here
Going to select him in a split stake
If I am right about Star Angel
And can get two outsiders beaten
Quian and Cogital those outsiders
TORCELLO then looks interesting
As an 87 rated horse facing a 0-71
He has negatives about his profile
But a class angle in his favour too
So making him a place saver bet
Selection
£5.00 Win Bet TWO BROTHERS 6/1
£5.00 Place Bet TORCELLO 1/1
Leopardstown 2.00
3/1 Warm Heart, 100/30 Bold As Love, 13/2 Persian Jewel
7/1 Curvature, Tender Kiss, 15/2 Toistiun, 8/1 Gulf Pearl
16/1 Kitty McFee, 20/1 Hazalaya, 25/1 One For Mum
25/1 Snowdonia Song, 100/1 Kirikiriroa.
Fillies Maiden 8f
Open and requires a guess
One angle that interests me
Unraced horses
Sired by Showcasing
Running over 8f or more
Have a 0-54 record so far
PERSIAN JEWEL fails this
Aidan runs a couple
Neither are strong in the market
TENDER KISS is unraced and out
WARM HEART has an absence
Heavy ground she could be short
TOISTIUN ran only 8 days ago
Needed more going up in distance
HAZALAYA might need the race
CURVATURE has a weak draw
GULF PEARL is from a sire
Who's record with similar types
Has yet to produce a winner
On soft over 8f with an absence
Given a combination of factors
Numbers prices pedigrees profiles
BOLD AS LOVE offered the most
But I am split staking this race
PERSIAN JEWEL is rejected
For win purposes on sire stats
But her pedigree has stamina
And no surprise if she places
Selection
£5.00 Win Bet BOLD AS LOVE 3/1-11/4
£5.00 Place Bet PERSIAN JEWEL 1/1-11/10
Ascot 2.25
2/1 Gamaret, 7/2 Eaton Collina, 5/1 Allo Allo
7/1 Northern Poet, Upton Road, William Cody
25/1 Valirann Gold.
Novice Handicap Chase 2m 5f
Only 7 runners
No past renewals to help
Probably should not be playing
GAMARET has flaws in profile
Only horse going up 5f in trip
Has the most weight to carry
Has the least experience too
Do not see a good enough case
To make him the favourite here
ALLO ALLO has 1 chase run
Raw and just preferred others
WILLIAM CODY is a 6 year old
Questioned his class rated 108
Some of these do look classier
VALIRANN GOLD even more so
UPTON ROAD is tempting
But down 4f the oldest horse
Just not quite like any winner
Despite that I like his figures
The narrative that last time
He did not get home over 3m
If I am right about Gamaret
If I save on Eaton Collina too
Then the only horses against is
Are those rated only 112 or less
That is how I would play the race
But we need to get the fav beat
Selection
£7.50 Win Bet UPTON ROAD 11/2
£2.50 Win Bet EATON COLLINA 3/1-11/4
Leopardstown 2.35
8/11 Hans Andersen, 2/1 Bold Discovery, 11/2 Carracci
14/1 Signatory, 16/1 Sea Chariot, 50/1 Eyeeye
100/1 Empty Metaphor.
2,000 Guineas Trial
HANS ANDERSEN looks best
Has the experience and figures
Faces some American Breds
How may not relish conditions
BOLD DISCOVERY 2nd best
May not stay as well as him
CARRACCI looks beatable too
And is the stable number two
HANS ANDERSEN looked right
Escapes any group race penalty
May just have too much onside
Selection
HANS ANDERSEN 4/5 (Betfair)
Win Bet
Doncaster 3.20
8/1 Chairmanoftheboard, 8/1 Faro De San Juan, 9/1 Bernardo O'Reilly
10/1 Dream Composer, Gisburn, 10/1 Aleezdancer, 12/1 Blind Beggar
12/1 Hyperfocus, Swayze, 14/1 Another Investment 16/1 Magical Spirit
16/1 True Jem, True Mason 20/1 Intrinsic Bond, Tinto, 25/1 Mark's Choice
25/1 Strong Power 33/1 Able Kane, 33/1 Prince Of Bel Lir
33/1 Twelfth Knight.
6f Handicap
Always like a crack at this race
But the schedule today is tight
The last 3 winners were 8yo's
So just doing a basic summary
Opposing blocks of horses
Those aged 9 or more
Absent more than 16 days
March and April all similar races
Show these horses are 0-30
BERNADOO'REILLY one of those
He won the race last season
But happy to take him out now
HYPERFOCUS is rejected aged 9
Opposing the highest 5 stalls
Mainly on draw partly profile
These horses are rejected
MARK'S CHOICE
ABLE KANE
TWELFTH KNIGHT
TINTO
Also opposed stalls 1 and 2
BLIND BEGGAR is drawn 1
ALEEZDANCER drawn in 2
Doncaster
6f Handicaps
Since 2003
Any time of year
Any Class of race
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 55 days
Drawn in stall 11 or higher
Have a 0-89 record in them
The following horses fail this
BERNADOO'REILLY
HYPERFOCUS
MARK'S CHOICE
TINTO
TRUE MASON
MAGICAL SPIRIT
ABLE KANE
CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD
CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD is fancied
But his sire's record looks a problem
Horses sired by Slade Power
Running over 6f and more
In Class 4 races and higher
On soft or heavy ground
Absent more than 3 weeks
Have a 0-42 record in them
CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD fails this
Opposing the fillies
Still leaves half a dozen options
Split staking two of these
Both 4 year olds
Both middle draws
Both met each other last time
In a 6f sprint on the all weather
Selection
£3.00 Each Way SWAYZE 16/1
£2.00 Each Way ANOTHER INVESTMENT 16/1
Downpatrick 4.00
5/1 Archies Charm, 13/2 Wa Wa, 7/1 Malina Girl,
7/1 My Design, 8/1 Punitive, 8/1 The Jam Man
10/1 Fakiera, 10/1 Mortal, 12/1 Mercury Lane
14/1 The Dabbler, 20/1 Eurobot, 20/1 Forza Milan
25/1 Fiveaftermidnight, Space Cadet, Welsh Saint.
Ulster National
13 renewals
THE JAM MAN is topweight
Asking a lot to defy 137 here
Official Ratings of winners
121 112 127 121 120 107 125
109 107 125 92 116 107
Horses rated 128 or more
Have a 0-29 record in this
THE JAM MAN is rejected
He also comes from a sire
With no winners over this far
PUNITIVE is rated 135
Pulled up at Cheltenham last time
Hardly an ideal preparation here
No past winners came from there
FAKIERA pulled up at Cheltenham
Rated 4lbs more than all past winners
MALINAS GIRL is rated 128
Thats higher than past winners
She is a 6 year old mare
Two years younger than the rest
And pulled up when last seen
Horses aged 6
Have won 2 past renewals
They both ran 21 days ago
Both had 10st 10lbs or less
MALINAS GIRL fits neither
And she is going up 7f in trip
Two interesting profiles
MY DESIGN
Only has 2 chase runs
No past winner
Had under 5 chase runs (0-21)
Has a short 12 day break too
But you also have to factor in
She comes from a 2m 4f race
Go back to 1997
Handicap Chases
Run over
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses with under 4 chases
Coming from 2m 4f or shorter
Running within 16 days
Have a 0-34 record in them
None won with her profile
MY DESIGN looks too unsafe
MERCURY LANE is interesting
As he last ran only 2 days ago
Increases the chance he hacks up
But that run was over 2m 4 furlongs
Going up a mile in distance today
From a novice with a 2 day break
Few tried that none of them won
That looks a questionable profile
EUROBOT is a 9 year old
He's raced once since 2021
Not been seen in 77 days now
Form and fitness simply unproven
No horses aged 11 or more
Have not won this race yet (0-21)
SPACE CADET rejected aged 13
MORTAL is 11 hammered last time
FORZA MILAN another 11 year old
He is a bit exposed with 25 chases
Past winners
Had the following Chase starts
12 6 19 9 11 6 13 8 5 7 8 5 7 12 6 9
Horses with over 13 chases
Have a weak 1-55 record in this
The following all fail this angle
SPACE CADET
MORTAL
FORZA MILAN
FIVEAFTERMIDNIGHT
THE DABBLER
FIVEAFTERMIDNIGHT a mare
Looks underraced and unsafe
Horses from 3m 1f or more
Have a 0-31 record in the race
Most winners stepped up 4f +
The following all fail this angle
THE DABBLER
PUNITIVE
FAKIERA
MORTAL
WELSH SAINT passes my angles
But beaten 45 lengths last time out
And only in a Hunter Chase too
His trainer is local loves the race
Has had a few placed in this before
But quite a concening trainer trend
Since 2018 his record in chases
Stands at a winless 0-78 since them
Had many before 2018 none since
Just dont think he offers enough
ARCHIES CHARM an 8 year old
Nice well round profile in parts
But he has 68 days off the track
And if you look at his sire's record
Horses sired by Shantou
Running over 3m 3f and more
Absent over 50 days
Have a 0-19 record so far
Not a great angle but it's there
Has to be overcome today
WA WA is an 8yo
Had been struggling over fences
But has just won 2 hurdle races
Risky but could make a difference
But is he better going left handed ?
Would not want it much softer
But he'd been laid out for the race
FORZA MILAN 50/1-66/1
He is 11 years old
He has 25 chase runs
So not the correct type
But he is a 50/1 chance
He is bred to stay
This time last year
He was rated 131
Today he runs off 114
Career low mark
Has a very light weight
When he ran at Naas last time
He may well have needed a run
Having unseated early beforehand
If you look at his record
In handicaps over 3m 4f and more
He has a 5 4 4 6 record in them
But these were high class races
Racing Post Ratings 123 125 132 127
Only has a rating of 114 in this race
Strike rate is poor (1-25)
But placed many times in those
And all his best form is on soft
He's run himself fit this year
Many of his rivals are flawed
Or have unsafe preparations
No way he should be 50/1
Plenty of older horses have won
Similar races at this time of year
I think he is worth a good bet
MERCURY LANE is a non runner
THE DABBLER is a non runner
SPACE CADET is a late saver
13 year old
Some do win similar races
Any Curency did
Victory Gunner did
He's won the race before
Been pointing
Maybe he is in a good place
Selection
£3.50 Each Way FORZA MILAN 66/1
£2.00 Win Bet WA WA 4/1
£1.00 Win Bet SPACE CADET 20/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Leopardstown 4.20
5/2 Starry Eyed, 11/2 Valiant King, 6/1 Autocrat
7/1 Dubawi Spectre, 7/1 Teutates, 9/1 Aurifodina
9/1 Pulse Light, 14/1 Betterdaysrcoming, Evening's Empire
16/1 Pigeon House, 20/1 Who Not What, 22/1 Donbeg Reel
22/1 Signora Bellissima.
3yo Handicap 10f
Horses rated 0-90
BETTERDAYSRCOMING rated 90
May well struggle given 9st 12lbs
Horses with 9st 11lbs or more
Have a 0-15 record in this race
AURIFODINA weak on sire stats
Has been backed despite this
But she also has a lot of weight
Horses with 9st 4lbs or more
Absent more than 16 days
Have a 0-41 record in this race
AURIFODINA fail this statistic
VALIANT KING does as well
Young horses on soft ground
They will have to stay well to win
WHO NOT WHAT may not stay
Has a weak draw to negotiate
PIGEON HOLE looks exposed
Too much so for a long absence
EVENINGS EMPIRE the same
Fillies have the best record
Males are 4-80
Females are 7-46
But none have recent races
STAREY EYED is a filly
She is tempting as a saver
Can match her to a winner
The winners in these years
2012 2014 2016 2017 2021 2022
Ran this season
Coming from Dundalk
The following all did that
TEUTATES
AUTOCRAT
DUBAWI SPECTRE
PULSE LIGHT
They all had 3-8 career runs
TEUTATES has only had 2 runs
PULSE LIGHT could pop up
But he has failed in 5 maidens
And has ran once in 178 days
Shortlisting 3 horses
STAREY EYED 5/2
DUBAWI SPECTRE 6/1
AUTOCRAT 8/1
AUTOCRAT won last time
DUBAWI SPECTRE was 2nd
And was priced up to beat him
Have to drop one of the three
Unless we go each way here
With 4 places it makes sense
Selection
DUBAWI SPECTRE 6/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Ascot 4.45
9/4 Larry, 7/2 Two For Gold, 4/1 Run To Milan
9/2 Ruthless Article, 13/2 Wishing And Hoping
10/1 Saint Xavier
Veterans Chase
With a long rich history
TWO FOR GOLD has topweight
Just 1 bad run in 148 days now
Past winners
Had the following prep runs
3 4 6 6 3 3 5 6 6 4 9
TWO FOR GOLD with just 2
Has fewer than all of those
RUTHLESS ARTICLE does
Rejected with 252 days off
WISHING AND HOPING is 13
Happy to oppose him as well
Past renewals show
Horses from listed/graded races
Have a 0-23 record in this race
The following horses fail this
TWO FOR GOLD
WISHING AND HOPING
Best profile
Horses under 13
Coming from Handicaps
That were in Class 2
That were over 3m or more
That were over 3 miles of more
Beaten last time in those races
But completing the course
Beaten under 20 lengths in it
Won the race in these years
Winning in the these seasons
2009 2010 2011 2014 2015 2016 2017 2021 2022
LARRY has this profile
SAINT XAVIER is also worth a bet
While he ran only 8 days ago
And was beaten a little too far
He loves a small field like this
There are several negatives in it
Selection
£7.00 Win Bet SAINT XAVIER 7/1
£3.00 Win Bet LARRY 5/2