Doncaster 3.35

AL MUBHIR 4/1-9/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

Forced into an unoriginal bet

Was always the default bet

Unless finding a better one

Sunday the problem might be

Choosing one bet from many

Preview Selections

Doncaster 1.50

£6.00 Win Bet Loaded Gun 5/1-9/2

£4.00 Place Indication Call 6/4 (1-2-3)

Doncaster 2.25

£2.50 Each Way Tropez Power 12/1

£2.50 Each Way Titian 12/1

1/1 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

Doncaster 3.35

Al Mubhir 4/1-9/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

Doncaster 4.10

£8.00 Win Bet Imperial Fighter 4/1-9/2

£2.00 Win Bet Tacarib Bay 4/1

Doncaster 4.45

Roost 6/1

Each Way

Doncaster 5.20

£6.00 Win Bet Aldbourne 3/1

£4.00 Place Bet Menelaus 5/4

Doncaster 5.50

Kalahari Prince 4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3 (4)

Yesterday's Summary

Short and basic stuff yesterday

Four previews finished P W P L

We found a winner and a loser

Which canceled each other out

And we broke level in two races

That Included the days best bet

Demandrivingdouvan the saver

Rescued stakes winning easily

Turned out a boring score draw

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Doncaster 1.50

2/1 Valadero, 7/2 Loaded Gun, 6/1 Indication Call

10/1 Old Chums, 10/1cSankari, 14/1 Doddie's Impact

18/1 Charged Up, 20/1 Go To Work, 25/1 Alfa Whiteburd

25/1 No Sinner, Part Time Britain, 33/1 Tees Douge

40/1 Eyeros, 40/1 Mullingar Girl, 50/1 Regal Fighter

66/1 Havana Prince.

Brocklesby Stakes

Don't always cover the race

With so few clues to go on

VALDERO is a warm favourite

Very expensive and talked up

Never completely convinced

About very expensive horses

Coming from smaller stables

How relevant is this record ?

Dominic Ffrench Davis

Unraced horses

They are 0-50 since 2014

They are 1-83 since 2009

His unraced horses

On softer than good are 0-48

Going back over 20 years too

None of these cost as much

We have to bear that in mind

He's well drawn and fancied

But the stable do concern me

SANKARI is rejected drawn 1

No past winner won from stall 1

All 24 were beaten since 1997

Highest draws are also weak

Go back to 2011

Doncaster 5f races

Unraced 2 year olds

Drawn 11 or higher

Have a weak 1-38 record

Could oppose higher draws

Some of these are outsiders

But a few of them are fancied

GO TO WORK drawn 16

INDICATION CALL drawn 15

PART TIME BRITAIN in 14

The 2019 winner was drawn high

There have been 2 non runners

That has to help higher draws

So not ruling any of those out

Not betting the favourite here

VALDERO is quite short now

With the negative trainer stat

Could make him the saver bet

But decided to split stake this

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet LOADED GUN 5/1-9/2

£4.00 Place INDICATION CALL 6/4 (1-2-3)

Doncaster 2.25

13/2 Isla Kai, 7/1 Baltimore Boy, 8/1 Broken Spear

8/1 Dirtyoldtown, 9/1 Arthur's Realm, 9/1 The Gatekeeper

12/1 Harswell Duke, Titian, Zozimus, 14/1 Tropez Power

16/1 Roudemental, 20/1 Raising Sand, 25/1 Maysong

25/1 Warning Sign, 28/1 Billy Mill, 28/1 Dutch Decoy

33/1 Tothenines, 40/1 Clear Angel, 40/1 Counsel

40/1 Devasboy 40/1 Lion Tower 40/1 Mercurius Power

Spring Mile

8f Handicap

First test of the draw statistics

Which will apply in the Lincoln

Go back to 1999

8f Doncaster races

Any kind of race

Any time of year

Horses aged 5 or more

Drawn 17 or higher

Have a 1-176 record

The following all fail this

ARTHUR'S REALM

ZOZIMUS

COUNSEL

RAISING SAND

Go back to 2005

8f Doncaster races

Any kind of race

Any time of year

Horses aged 3 or more

Under 12 career starts

Drawn 17 or higher

Have a 0-41 record in them

THE GATEKEEPER fails this

Past renewals show

Horses aged 6 or more

Have a poor 2-147 record

Those running this year 0-86

The following horses fail this

BROKEN SPEAR

RAISING SAND

MAYSONG (Weak sire stats)

Past renewals show

Horses aged 5 or more

Running this season

Have a horrible 1-150 record

The following also fail this

TITIAN

HARSWELL DUKE

MERCURUIS POWER

BILLY MILL

BALTIMORE BOY

Sired by Starspangledbannner

The sires runners over 8f or more

Running in class 3 or higher

When absent more than 36 days

Have a 0-34 record so far

Will he stay in this class on soft ?

Without a run in several months

Breeding statistics have concerns

The above are just a collection

Of horses that can be questioned

ISLA KAI can as well

Topweight 9st 12lbs with an absence

Go back to 2003

Every 8f handicap here

Horses aged 5 or more

Absent more than 45 days

Carrying 9st 10lbs or more

Have a 0-19 record in them

Not a friendly combination

Go back to 2003

Doncaster handicaps

Run over 1m 3f or shorter

Class 3 or higher

With over 6 runners

Horses aged 5 or more

Absent more than 56 days

Carrying 9st 10lbs or more

Have a 0-39 record in them

The following horses fail this

ISLA KAI

RAISING SAND

ZOZIMUS

ROUDEMENTAL statistically fine

But lacking any market support

I would make an assumption here

Given his connections it's a prep

His main target Chester in may

DIRTYOLDTOWN is shortlistable

Would be an obvious selection

But have to trust trainer and sire

To deliver under these conditions

Not sure I can fully rely on both

TROPEZ POWER

Must be the fittest profile

Will conditions suit him ?

Impossible to know

Breeding stats inconclusive

But many built in positives

TITIAN has plenty as well

May not be the perfect profile

But he is performing well enough

Would rather marry these together

As only one needs to be 1-2-3-4-5

Selection

£2.50 Each Way TROPEZ POWER 12/1

£2.50 Each Way TITIAN 12/1

1/1 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

Doncaster 3.35

9/2 Awaal, 5/1 Al Mubhir, 8/1 Wanees

9/1 Atrium, 10/1 Baradar, 12/1 Empirestateofmind

12/1 Jimi Hendrix, 12/1 Majestic, 12/1 Montassib

14/1 Migration, 16/1 Bopedro, 20/1 Boardman

20/1 Croupier, 25/1 Encourageable, Safe Voyage

25/1 Toshizou, 33/1 Eilean Dubh, 33/1 Yanifer

50/1 Greatgadian, 50/1 Revich, 50/1 Witch Hunter

66/1 Helm Rock.

Lincoln Handicap

Covered this race a few times

Not wanting to be too repetitive

AL MUBHIR is still my number 1

Hoping that his market dangers

Have some problematic draws

Go back to 1999

8f Doncaster races

Any kind of race

Any time of year

Horses aged 5 or more

Drawn 17 or higher

Have a 1-176 record

The following all fail this

MONTASSIB

BOARDMAN

BOPEDRO

Go back to 2005

8f Doncaster races

Any kind of race

Any time of year

Horses aged 3 or more

Under 12 career starts

Drawn 17 or higher

Have a 0-41 record in them

The following all fail this

AWAAL

WANEES

MONTASSIB

Much will depend

On whether the draw bias flips

With a lot of fancied drawn high

AWAAL can be forgiven stall 17

But he has some angles to beat

Lincoln Handicap

Go back to 2005

Horses with 9st 5lbs or more

Have a 0-53 record in this race

AWAAL fails this with 9st 7lbs

Go back to 1997

Doncaster

Every handicap run before

That was between 5f and 8f

Any class of race

Any time of year

Over a mile or shorter

Horses aged 4

Under 6 career starts

Absent more than 58 days

Carrying 9st 5lbs or more

Running of a rating of 99 or more

Have a 0-37 record in them all

AWAAL fails this long term angle

ATRIUM has a chance

But quite exposed as a 4yo

Has plenty of weight as well

JIMI HENDRIX could go well

But I am expecting later targets

Not a stable I could trust first time

Horses aged 7 or more

Have a 0-76 record since 1999

BOPEDRO looks an unlikely winner

MIGRATION a 7yo with topweight

There will be dangers in a big field

AL MUBHIR ticks all of the boxes

And unless the draw flips on heavy

Hard to see 4 horses to beat him

Selection

AL MUBHIR 4/1-9/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

Doncaster 4.10

13/8 Poker Face, 7/2 Tempus, 4/1 Tacarib Bay

5/1 Imperial Fighter, 10/1 Brunch, 14/1 Toimy Son

33/1 Astral Beau.

Doncaster Mile

Listed race 8f

POKER FACE is favourite

Nice type but not top rated

But comes here unbeaten

What bothers me most here

Go back to the 1998 renewal

The last 22 winners of this race

All had at least 5 career starts

POKER FACE only has 3 runs

TOIMY SON fails breeding stats

May not get the trip first time out

BRUCH is a 6yo first time out

From his yard may need the run

Horses with over 16 career runs

Coming from Class 2 or lower

Have a 0-25 record since 1998

BRUNCH fails this 0-25 statistic

19 of the last 22 winners

Were winning this first time out

Horses with over 8 career runs

Running within 4 months are 0-33

TEMPUS shares this profile

TACARIB BAY fails this as well

IMPERIAL FIGHTER

Has the best standard profile

As an unexposed 4yo first time out

There is also room for a saver bet

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet IMPERIAL FIGHTER 4/1-9/2

£2.00 Win Bet TACARIB BAY 4/1

Doncaster 4.45

7/4 Astrodome, 7/2 Carlton, 9/2 Ribal

7/1 Paddy The Squire, 7/1 Roost, 11/1 Maxi King

11/1 Seahouses, 12/1 Cosmic Soul, 40/1 Camarrate

66/1 Wintercrack, 100/1 Max Of Stars, Ski Jump

10f Maiden

John Gosden runs two

Both unraced

Both appearing fancied

CARLTON

ASTRODOME

This statistic has stood a while

Always looks about to get busted

But so far it has not done so

Go back to 2003

March and April

Doncaster 3yo maiden races

Run over 9f and more

Male 3 year olds

Having their debut run

Have a 0-56 record

The following all fail this

CAMARRATE

COSMIC SOUL

SEAHOUSES

CARLTON

ASTRODOME

Right or wrong

The above angle suggests

We should go for experience

Plan A was this

£5.00 Win Bet Roost 13/2-7/1

£5.00 Place Bet Rival 1/1-10/11

Price chances spoil that

Could have a win and saver

But going each way instead

Selection

ROOST 6/1

Each Way

Doncaster 5.20

100/30 Aldbourne, 7/2 Mrs Meader, 13/2 Glory And Honour

7/1 Menelaus, 8/1 Crafter, 10/1 Ivy Avenue, 12/1 Lunar Jet

14/1 Mac Ailey, Zuraig, 16/1 Don't Look Back, 25/1 Absolute Ruler

33/1 Straitouttacompton.

Apprentice Handicap 10f

18 past renewals

Just following some angles

I want a horses

Aged 4-5-6-7

With 10 or more career runs

Horses with under 10 runs

Have a 0-55 record in this

The following all fail this

CRAFTER

MENELAUS

Horses aged 8 or more

Have a 0-42 record in this

LUNAR YET fails this angle

If you look at past winners

Winning first time out that year

None of these were aged 6 +

None of these were females

MRS MEADER is a 7yo mare

Who is trying to win first time out

IVY AVENUE a 6yo off too long

Against horses from Class 6 races

DON'T LOOK BACK a weak profile

GLORY AND HONOUR is respected

ALDBOURNE is very shortlistable

Have to guess with the staking

Would rather split win and place

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet ALDBOURNE 3/1

£4.00 Place Bet MENELAUS 5/4

Doncaster 5.50

3/1 Highlighter, 5/1 Aone Ally, 6/1 Das Kapital

6/1 Kalahari Prince, Simulation Theory, 9/1 Light Up Our Stars

11/1 Benadalid, 12/1 Peripeteia 16/1 Remedium

50/1 Zoffany Portrait.

Apprentice Handicap 10f

Division 2

18 past renewals

Statistically most interesting

Will be how those short of runs

Will get on in an Apprentice race

Past renewals show

Horses with under 10 runs

Have a 0-55 record in this

HIGHLIGHTER has 3 runs

That could be a problem

Stepping up 3f in distance

That is a challenging profile

And he has topweight too

ALONE ALLEY has 7 runs

Just 1 run since 2011 as well

Not safe on breeding statistics

BENADALID looks too old

Has a poor breeding profile

PERIPETEIA a mare off 89 days

If you look at past winners

Winning first time out that year

None of these were aged 6 +

DAS KAPITAL an 8yo first time out

Is not reflective of past winners

LIGHT UP OUR STARS is unsafe

Does not have a safe profile

REMEDIUM may lack the class

SIMULATION THEORY is a 5yo

Not persuaded by his sire here

Starspangledbanner's runners

Racing over 10f or more

Ground softer than good

Have a weak 1-49 record

Those absent over 5 days 0-45

SIMULATION THEORY fails this

THE NU FORM WAY has 10st

Long absence might need this

KALAHARI PRINCE

He has 8 career runs

Every past winner had 10

But happy to forgive him this

Given weakness in the others

Selection

KALAHARI PRINCE 4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3 (4)