The flat is back!! You may recall I was going to post system previews in the lead up to kicking off this years campaign but after much thought I have decided against sharing my system selections. There are two reasons for this...
The higher strike rate systems I am running are all configured to work in Fairbot and rely on certain markers such as a predefined BSP ranges or market positions so aren't really suited to posting here.
The rest of the systems are all 'Valger Danue' style with low strike rates and long losing runs which whilst profitable over the long term aren't really suited to posting here.
Instead I am going to post the best daily speed rating selections based on my own assessment of my ratings and for the best bets I will occasionally include the actual speed ratings so you can see why I have made the selection. These are just simple speed and pace ratings pulled from my system via a basic script like the below for the Newcastle 15.30 tomorrow...
Yes it's a hurdle race but there is no flat and nothing good on the all weather tomorrow at all to use as an example instead. Anyway the runners will always ordered top to bottom in expected speed so any potential value bets can be easily spotted. I have included expected pace (1-4 with 1 being a front runner) and I have highlighted any runs of interest in green.
To break down the above race a little more the average class par in this particular race is 45 which eliminates the bottom three runners straight away as none of them have ever ran a 45. From the remaining three runners Killybegs is a mid 40's horse running to the class par on only one occasion and I would question his expected pace over 24F. Angus De Bull posted an impressive 49 LTO when he ran 5th over 19F. However he is untested over this distance and I have doubts that it will suit. Adveram looks to be a different class. The only runner to break into the 50's, he didn't go well LTO but first time out on the Wetherby course maybe didn't suit. Price @ 3.0 isn't great but he looks for sure to be the one to beat here.
I am looking to kick things off on the 1st April so will probably get another post up tomorrow with some basic rules and guidance for anyone following along. It's unlikely I will use the exchange as I am using it for the system bets so will need to get a few bookmaker accounts loaded up and ready to go.
Thanks,
Darth Niloc