Valger Danue has opened my eyes to an entirely new way I can use my database. I knew all those years spent compiling endless amounts of data would one day pay off.

Infact it isn't even fair to call this Valger Danue anymore. It has evolved through its many revisions into something else entirely.

It has also given me a new perspective. Are we all over complicating this horse racing game?  Is it easier than we all think?

Is it possible to design a selection method based on simple statistics that is profitable over the long term using just the most basic information?

I asked myself that question today whilst working on the system and decided to put it to the test. Let's look at Beverley as an example as there is racing scheduled there tomorrow.

For this test to give me a fair amount of data to work with I loaded in the database and results from 1st January 2018 until present day. All results below are based on SP and level stakes.

Ok so since 1st January 2018 until now there has been 469 handicap races at Beverley. Backing absolutely everything that ran resulted in a total of 4.5k bets and a loss of 1.2k pts.

First thing we will look at is 12 month trainer form. We want the trainer to have won a race at this course in the last 12 months. Its a fact that some trainers never win at certain courses and this also applies here at Beverley.

Adding this filter to the system reduces our total bets to 4.1k and an overall loss of 1.1k. A small but significant improvement.

Second thing we will look at is the RP betting forecast. There is a clear defined line showing the majority of winners at this course have a RP forecast price of 8/1 or less.

Adding this filter to the system reduces our total bets to 1.9k and an overall loss of 300pts. I call this a hard filter as it reduces the number of bets by more than 50%. Our first hard filter here reduced our losses by 800pts in exchange for 2.2k bets which is excellent.

Keep it simple third thing we will look at is days since a win. Like the above there is a clear defined line showing a significant number of these horses win again within 60 days of their last win.

Adding this filter reduces our total bets to 600 and an overall loss of just 3pts. The second hard filter leaves us in an excellent position just a 3pts loss at SP from over 600 bets.  

Fourth thing we will look at is field size. There is a clear defined drop off in strike rate in races with 14 or more runners. Makes sense as big fields can be a lottery.

Adding this filter reduces our total bets to 500 and overall profit of 5pts. PROFIT! With just four simple filters we have designed a profitable selection method. Let's find one more filter...

Fifth and final thing we will look at is horses age. There is a clear defined drop off in strike rate backing 6 year olds and older.

Adding this filter reduces our bets to 400 and overall profit of 50pts. BOOM! 🚀🚀🚀 A profitable system in five easy steps.

Reviewing the stats since 2018 the system has an overall strike rate of 25% at an average SP just better than 4/1. Profitable each and every year expect 2021 when it produced a 20pt loss. We could dig further into the data and find out why the system under performed that year. Infact I will do this and it can be a part two to this or something when I have time. However with early prices or exchange SP I imagine you could easily double or triple SP profits following this method.

The point of this post was to simply share what I have found. Profit from five simple filters using information anyone could get from the racing post or at the races websites. The idea behind this was to keep it simple and use the most generic and basic of information. I spent maybe an hour building this system taking the most 'obvious' route each time so I have no doubt I could vastly improve it with some actual time and effort. For example if I apply my expected speed ratings as the sixth filter the profit increases to over 80pts so the potential with this is huge 🤯.

Here's an idea. There is racing at Windsor tomorrow as well. I will build a similar system to the one above 'live' as I write this using the same set of filters to prove the above isn't a statisicial error or anomaly.

Ok so since 2018 there has been 448 handicap races at Windsor. Backing absolutely everything that ran same as above resulted in a total of 3.7k bets and a loss of 750pts.

Same as above first thing we will look at is 12 month trainer form. Adding this filter to the system reduces our total bets to 3.4k and an overall loss of 630pts. A 120pt improvement in exchange for 300 bets.

Next is the RP betting forecast. Similar lines exist here for the RP forecast price of 8/1 or less although you could include up to 10/1. However this is just an example so we will stick with 8/1. Adding this filter to the system reduces our total bets to 2k and an overall loss of 320pts. Puts us in a similar situation to the Beverley system at this stage following the exact same stats.

Next is days since a win. Same again 60 days since their last win although you could include up to 90 days. Adding this filter reduces our total bets to 700 and an overall loss of 120pts.

Not as effective a filter here as it was at Beverley. We should go looking for something else here a different filter but this is just an example. Lets press on...

Fourth is field size. Here there is a clear defined drop off in strike rate in races with 10 or more runners. Adding this filter reduces our total bets to 500 and overall loss of 70pts.

Fifth filter is horses age. In this example if we dismiss any horses 5 years old and older. Adding this filter reduces our bets to 350 and overall loss of 15pts. Let me see if I can find an easy sixth filter...

Ok back to trainer form. Must have had a win in the last two weeks. Adding this filter reduces our bets to 300 and an overall profit of 8pts.

I won't bother with the breakdowns as this was just a quick example that took 30 minutes to build and didnt really prove my point 🤣 We have a working system but with some time effort and a different choice of filters it would not be a difficult task to make this system as profitable as the one above.

A quick look at my speed ratings shows the top 5 LTO ranked horses do especially well and would add 25pts profit. Backing the top form horse alone would produce 40pts profit and a healthy 40% strike rate.

Who needs complex form reading or speed ratings? Is it really simple stats for the win? I hope you found the above as informative as I did.

I won't post the selections for the systems as there are 10 of them and I can't copy and paste so need to type each one out and can't be arsed tbh. I will let you know if there are any winners.

However I hope you can see the same potential in this as I can as well as the scale of the task of compiling and testing all this. The possibilities with this feel endless and whilst this is where I am fully focused I need to go to work and promised the wife I would spend more time with her 🥰 I will only have a couple of hours in the evening and some weekend time but all that will be spent developing this concept further. I really believe we are on to something big here... 😎

Anyway I promised stud man some selections. Looking at the speed ratings and we have a few candidates for tomorrow;

AYR 16.50 - Asmund @ 10.0

AYR 17.25 - Star Shield @ 6.0

BEVERLEY 19.00 - In These Shoes @ 4.0

BEVERLEY 20.30 - Invisible Friend @ 8.0

Valger Danue (the actual VD) has also found this one at an usually low price...

AYR 17.25 - Ayr Poet @ 3.5

Thanks,

Darth Niloc