Apologies I haven't posted in a few days. I have been in London since Thursday last week staying with my mate (the same guy who helped me pull the new ratings setup together). For those who have been following my plight and/or are interested I will hold my hands up and admit that I was completely lost trying to make the new setup work.

I thought I had it figured out several times but in the end my lack of understanding how to code and how to setup the profilers and filters properly had me beaten so I called him and asked for help.

My friend was back in London again and very kindly invited me over. Inspite of the protests from the wife I booked the next available flight, arrived late Thursday evening and we got stuck in. We worked on it all day Friday, Saturday and most of Sunday. It was a case of me describing exactly what I was looking for and my mate talking me through different options on how to code to achieve it. It was a long weekend in the baking heat (London is so much hotter than my native Norn Iron) but by Sunday evening we had it done.

It turned out there were a few issues with the old base code. Nothing too major but several smaller issues that resulted in calculation errors. Things I probably messed up somewhere. For example the speed calculations were not working correctly. I had tried to fix this and thought I had it sorted but the class par figures were still not calculating or pulling across correctly. Thing is if even one calculation is incorrect then all subsequent calculations will be incorrect making the ratings effectively useless. 

The draw bias calculations were not working properly either. In the end we figured out I had missed a zero somewhere so was assessing draws 1-3 instead of draws 1-30. There were several other similar stupid mistakes buried deep in the lines of code including the cracker of me recording a 16.0 winner back in 2019 as 160.0 which effectively made every backtest I done in which that selection was included a roaring success with a 134pt headstart every time 🤣

We started from basically the beginning again and rebuilt everything. At my mates recommendation we also imported everything from several different spreadsheets to two absolute monster spreadsheets. We also archived the pre 2018 data as we agreed it isn't overly relevant and was adding to the size and affecting the speed of running the system. It took us two days to fix everything (3 technically as Friday was pretty much an all nighter. Kebabs at 4am for dinner or was it maybe breakfast 🤣).

Sunday was a day of testing and backtesting. We manually ran the calculations for easily 100's of races against the system and everything worked. We added a traffic light type system to make the ratings visually easier to assess and improved the general layout of the ratings just to make the entire thing easier to look at it.

My mate was able to figure out a way to make the entire process one click. I simply open a script and it loads the previous days results into the database, processes all the calculations and produces the full set of ratings for the next several days for me to assess 🤯 Best of all it actually works this time!

To celebrate we hit the town. I was determined to go to a stripclub as I have never been but my mate remembered he had corporate VIP tickets for the Pink concert so we went there instead and had pretty much front row view of most of her show.

After several more Mojitos we wanted to head back but there were no taxis and the tube was madness! I've never seen anything like it before and the heat was unbearable! 🥵 

We decided to walk to a different station or to a taxi stand, not sure what the actual plan was but on the way bumped into four either Polish, Russian or Ukraine guys. They didn't speak any English (other than fuck shit and you) and my mastery of any East European language is absent at best but we still somehow managed to get in an argument. 

Now we reckon it was because we were staring at one of what must have been a girlfriend of one of the guys. I certainly was and want to add at this point I have never seen so many attractive women in my life before! I hate London (all cities really as I am a country boy) but honestly I seen more perfect tens in the space of a few hours last night than I have ever seen total in my life before!

Anyway one of the guys was particularly angry over either me staring at his girlfriend with my tongue out or the fact we maybe didn't give him a lighter for his cigarette which was in his mouth unlit yet seemingly being smoked at the same time. So picture this, four reasonably well built angry East European men in thier mid to late twenties versus my mate who used to play front row in rugby.... in fucking high school 30+ years ago and who has smoked a lb of weed a week every week since and me a former kickboxing champion.... 25 years ago who now has a bad back and at best fairly limited flexibility. 

So anyway turns out my mate is like some form of cannabis powered cannon ball. Angry guy threw the first punch just for clarity and boom, rugby tackle from hell from out of nowhere! Absolutely laid the guy out cold! I didn't even have time to set my mojito down 🤣 Also turns out me who hasn't throw a punch in anger for well over 20 years can still handle himself. I also learnt that in my super relaxed rum induced state, I don't even feel getting punched in the face 🤣

I was floating mostly because of the rum and the only thing stinging at that stage was my hand from punching the guy back in the side of his head 🤣 We legged it as soon as we could as we were outnumbered, out muscled and out aged. Their combined age for all four wasn't that far away from the combined age of the two of us. Thankfully they didn't give chase and we luckily found a taxi a few streets over. 

I had to come home to the wife this afternoon who is a massive Pink fan and tell her how I got a black eye in a fight after the Pink concert I definitely was not at 🤣 I swear the whole thing was just madness! Anyway sorry for the tangent, just thought I would share an eventful story from my normally uneventful life. Anyway back to business...

So the ratings and new setup are finally up and running and have been Darth Niloc proofed and child locked so I can't mess it up again 🤣 We also added a jumps rating, something I was fiddling with on the side. It is rudimentary at best with a rating for jump ability based on the horses finishing position (and the fact it actually finished). Like I said rudimentary at best but tied up with the speed ratings and perhaps the base for something more in depth in the future if I can make it work?

My overall betting starting bank for 2023 is bigger than it has ever been before. My campaign to date this year has been start stop hit and miss so far so whilst still marginally in profit I now have the ratings up and running. I need a means of managing stakes and also tracking my performance so the campaign will be split into four individual campaigns, one for the turf, one for the all weather, a mini side campaign for the jumps and a mini accumulator campaign. The starting bank will be split 4 ways;

Turf - 40%

All Weather - 40%

Jumps - 10%

Daily Acca - 10%

All selections will be based around trying to find value in the ratings and will rely on taking the early prices. This is and has always been key and is also the strategy that will get me banned the quickest but I don't care at this stage. I am playing catch up now so need to be aggressive.

All bets will be placed with different books so I can take advantage of extra place offers, money back offers, etc. We will save the exchange for later once we have exhausted the accounts with the books. 

Stakes will be 1pt per selection and compounded as always. Minimum odds target is maybe 5/1 but we are looking for value in the bigger prices. Not saying I will never back a strong 3/1 shot but I am more likely to back the 3rd rated 20/1 shot each way.

As I have more time available now that all the updating and behind the scenes work is automated I will try to include a few extra details about the reasoning behind each selection. Not anywhere near the quality of boss mans excellent strategy posts but I will try to sprinkle in a little extra detail. 

Ok so three meetings of interest tomorrow and 6 selections shortlisted. All played at 1pt each way at prices shown below. I have added a confident rating (A, B or C) as a means to further break down my selections for review later.

Beverley

15.15 - Scramble @ 11.0 (C Rated)

Hold up type runner who normally don't fare well at Beverley but is well drawn, dropped in weight and has been improving lately and could improve again.

15.45 - Visitant @ 11.0 (B Rated)

Big price for what is my third top rated runner. Has two to beat here but has been improving and is due a win. Definate each way claims.

16.15 - Shine on Brendan @ 21.0 (C Rated)

Big big price for one of my top 3 rated on speed. Not all perfect but good draw and his early speed should put him into contention here.

Brighton

15.00 - Stormingin @ 11.0 (B Rated)

Last few runs on AW didn't work out but back on turf his speed should put him into contention. Down in class and weight so should be a contender here.

Newbury

19.15 - Obsidian Knight @ 9.0 (A Rated)

A few interesting contenders in this one but we will go with Obsiaian Knight. Best draw, high speed, recent performances consistent. Solid value at this price and my best bet of the day. 

20.25 - Secret Strength @ 8.5 (B Rated)

Big price for my top rated on speed and over distance. Recent form hasn't been great and his hold up style not ideal but I still rate him as a big contender here.

I will play the two top rated selections in an acca @ 99.0;

Newbury 19.15 - Obsidian Knight @ 9.0 (A Rated)

Brighton 15.00 - Stormingin @ 11.0 (B Rated)

Thanks,

Darth Niloc