Apologises for my leave of absence. My work has been absolutely crazy recently. Mostly my own fault for spending all my time working on the system and not actually going to work for several weeks. It left me in an almost unrecoverable position so it has been near constant late nights and weekends playing catch-up. I have barely had time to run the system each day and get a few bets on. There has been next to no development work done on the system for weeks as I haven't had the time or headspace for it.
Thankfully I am back on top of things at work for the most part. Still incredibly busy but I have a bit of free time in the evenings again and have been reviewing my progress with everything system related. I had literally a few dozen active projects each with their systems and many with their own variants and sub variants of the variants. I didn't take a total count but there was easily 200+ systems with probably the half of them marked as 'work in progress'.
This is the result of my usual go flat out in all directions all at the same time approach to development. I need to take a more measured approach instead so I have been working through the systems one by one assessing both their past performance, future potential and if they are worth any further development time. I took a ruthless stance here and only kept the absolute best. I have abandoned some projects I believe have high potential but require a serious amount of development time that I don't have.
I will maybe revisit these again in the future but for now I have reduced the number of projects to just five and the number of systems from 200+ down to less than 60 with the majority of these course specific work in progress variants of the Valger Danue branch of systems. I have written a brief overview of each system below - All figures are based on back testing results;
Speed Rating System (Flat and All Weather versions)
These are the core speed rating based systems. A combination of several different approaches to assessing speed. Both versions have a 30%+ strike rate based on back testing with the turf version the more profitable. Finished and complete as far as development is concerned and consistently profitable.
Top Speed Rated System (Flat and All Weather versions)
As the name suggests these are the top speed rated based systems. Similar to the above system but with an entirely different approach to assessing speed. An average 35% strike rate between both versions with the all weather version slightly more profitable. A big hitter in my arsenal but still requires some development.
Valger Danue System (Flat and All Weather versions)
Enter Valger Danue and his system variants. Not speed rating based and most of these systems are still a work in progress including most of the course specific systems. What does work works very well when it does work. High potential project that requires a lot of work and development.
Valger Danue Top Speed Rated System (Flat and All Weather versions)
This is the base Valger Danue System with a little bit of the Top Speed Rated System mixed in. The result is a beast of a system with high profits but potentially long losing runs. Another big hitter with loads of potential but still early days and requires a lot of work and development (including course specific systems?).
Simple System (Flat version only. All Weather version still in development)
I also have a statistic based system that is so ridiculously simple but is a major player in my line-up. I have never posted these selections here before. The profits on the flat are ridiculous but I have been struggling to make the all weather version work. Despite the simplicity there is plenty of development work required here.
Streamlining the number of active projects has allowed me to refocus my strategy as with all the different projects running, I have been trying to follow too many different game plans all at once. We now have just two speed rating-based systems, two statistic-based systems and one hybrid system. Between them they produce a reasonable number of selections per day with each selection method backed up with a proven profitable track record.
This will also allow me to make better use of what little development time I have. Valger Danue was and will continue to be the main focus once I get back into it again, but I am also very keen to get the all weather version of the Simple System working if it's even possible. There is still loads to do but I will try to get posting here regularly again as well.
Looking at tomorrow we have seven races of interest including two on the all weather. The speed rating selections are rated between A-C with A being the highest rated and staked at a full 1pt and C being the lowest and staked at 0.33pts. Posted regardless of price.
Flat Top Speed Selections - 1pt Win
Epsom 16.10 - Redredrobin @ 4.0
Newmarket 19.30 - Jack Sparowe @ 4.0
All Weather Top Speed Selections - 1pt Win
Wolverhampton 14.15 - Lexington Belle @ 1.61
Flat Speed Rating Selections
Newmarket 18.55 - Oh Herberts Reign @ 13.0 C
Newmarket 19.30 - I Still Have Faith @ 6.0 C
Newmarket 20.05 - Bopedro @ 6.0 C
All Weather Speed Rating Selections
Wolverhampton 16.35 - Byefornow @ 8.0 C
Valger Danue - 0.5pt Each Way
Epsom 15.35 - Lexington Hero @ 18.0
I will play a few small stake accumulator combinations both win and place. Top speed treble and speed rating four way for example.
Thanks,
Darth Niloc
Totally agree with John, glad to have you back posting what I consider an interesting read
Good to have you back D, exciting stuff. 👍