Day one of my 2023 campaign is finally here. We are ready to go live with the new ratings and after a quite incredible weekend I cannot wait to put them to the test.
A couple of quick notes before I get started. I have a few different strategies that I will be using this season. Unfortunately I wouldn't have time to post and update them all so for this campaign and my posts on here I will be using system one or basically the absolute top rated qualifiers.
This system has always been a top performer across all the different versions of my ratings over the years. The selection model has been expanded and further refined in this version and the results from the back testing are very encouraging to say the least.
I will post anywhere between 2 - 4 or more qualifiers each day. My main focus is racing in the UK, Europe, South Africa and North America although I am having issues with the supplier of some important data I use for the European races (have been all year) so will exclude these races until I can get this resolved.
As these are my top rated qualifiers they often find themselves at or near the top of the market. As a result prices can vary but average at better than odds on (tested against SP). To maximise our return we will back them in accumulators.
I will place two bets everyday;
Bet one is backing all the top rated qualifiers in the win market in an each way acca.
Bet two in backing all the top rated qualifiers in the place market in an acca. I may add additional qualifiers to this bet to maximum the return.
There may be an occasional third bet if the system throws up something out of the ordinary or if the race profiler finds a system specific candidate. I might even spot something within the filter that I think is worthy of consideration. No hard and fast rules here. I will make it clear in my post what it is and how I will be backing it.
With regards to staking and bank management we are looking to be aggressive yet maintain a healthy strike rate for rapid compound growth but with low risk staking. Stakes are set at 1pt = 1% and only recalculated when we make new profit. I will post an update on our bank, ROI, strike rate, etc, etc probably once a week or after a good win.
I will post my top rated selections each morning as soon as all of them have been priced (I never take SP). If you are following any of them I suggest you do so as early as possible. The books often get the opening prices especially on the South African and USA races all wrong.
As a recent example on Saturday in South Africa I backed a selection as the markets opened @ 9.50 which went off second favourite @ 3.50 and won. Some real value to be had here if you are early.
And if you are following please do so in a structured way with a managed bankroll. Remember these accumulators don't hit everyday. Far from it or I would be back at this full time again 🤣 Some days they land for a few points of profit and some days like Saturday they all land for a @ 59.0 return. Only had twenty quid on it but it covered the rest of my starting bank at that book with a bit to spare so all Saul Goodman! If only I had included the above mentioned South African horse in the accumulator.... 🚀🚀🚀
Over the medium to long term I believe this system will perform and we will all profit but we take it one day at a time. We win and we be happy. We lose we move on and hope the ratings perform better tomorrow.
I think the above covers everything. I will post my selections in the morning as soon as the markets are priced up. Good luck and here's to a successful campaign 👍🏻
Thanks,
Darth Niloc
John thinking about it I will be following these selections regardless of price so there is no real reason not to post them now. I will post an update with the price I got for each bet in the morning.
Ok so we had a total of 22 qualifiers for today. My assessment of the races has reduced this number to 4 particularly strong selections. However it's day one and it would be nice to kick things off with a win so we will play the safer option with the following treble, an all American line-up (listed in order of preference). I have included the confidence rating of each selection both for my own record and to give you some indication of the strength of each selection;
Will Rodgers R9 - Heady Moves (98)
Will Rodgers R4 - Sazon (72)
Will Rodgers R4 - Sure Shot Shelly (30)
1pt win e/w acca @ tbc
Picking an overall top rated for the day is difficult as Heady Moves has a higher confidence rating but Sazon finds himself in a less competive race. Both have a clear advantage which will no doubt be reflected in the opening prices.
Sure Shot Shelly is the add on here to boost the price so if you are following feel free to play the safer double option. A rating of 30 is still considered a very good rating, one that I would probably never not bet on but which shows the advantage the other two selections have here today.
The place bet for today has a few extra selections to the above 3. I have another 6 particularly strong selections that I believe will win if I am honest but are rated below the current tolerance and either find themselves in a more competitive race than the rest or have some other red flag about them that puts a win beyond any doubt.
One of these races isn't paying places (Wolverhampton 15.10) but the rest of the selections have at worse a 2nd place in them so I believe this is a strong 8 way place market bet. Another all American line-up. Again I will list them in order of preference along with the confidence rating so if you are following feel free to back as many or as few of them as you want.
Will Rodgers R9 - Heady Moves (98)
Will Rodgers R4 - Sazon (72)
Will Rodgers R4 - Sure Shot Shelly (30)
Will Rodgers R10 - Searchin Safari (26)
Will Rodgers R1 - Hot Ticket (18)
Louisiana R5 - G'Wildcat (16)
Louisiana R7 - Mint (11)
Louisiana R6 - I Don't Venmo (11)
1pt place acca @ tbc
As an indication I have the tolerance level for the win market currently set at 20. I may adjust this as the campaign progresses and we have some live data to work with but based on back testing this is a fair yet fairly agressive threshold.
The confidence figures for the place market selections are maybe misleading as there are many lower rated runners (+10 rated) that qualified but I later dismissed due to reasons like an over competive race or whatever.
These selections find themselves well placed to win and they probably will. There is just some red flag about them that adds too much risk for the win market but makes them a strong contender for the place market.
I hope the above makes sense as I am drunk and am amazed I can still type 🤣 Despite my drunken state all the selections above are correct, I ran the ratings before I started on the mojitos. But hey I am celebrating the start of my 2023 campaign - It has been a rough few months to get here!
Good luck if you are following, will post an update with the prices in the morning.
Thanks,
Darth Niloc
Ratings that cover international racing love it.
What times early?
Good Luck