After a quiet day yesterday we have two all weather meetings today and three races on the shortlist. Our best bet of the day is Diligent Harry in the 18.30 at Newcastle. No surprise to find him at the top of the market. He is a horse that excels on the all weather.
There are still some concerns. He is top weight by a considerable margin. Stall 4 isn't the greatest draw and he doesn't have the clearest of advantages on the speed ratings. But on the positives he is well ahead in ability and has dropped to what I think is a workable mark.
The expected pace should work in his favour and this race is a drop in class (and prize money) compared to the level he was competing at previously. He stands out on my ratings and just looks to be a different class of horse than the majority of the rest of the field so I'm comfortable backing him at this price.
Second best bet is a dutch in the 16.55 at Newcastle. My top rated is Bobby Shaftoe who looks to be the one to beat here. But another one that I like is Steel Helmet. On previous form he looks like a terrible selection but he shows good speed figures, the best possible draw, ideal trip and the expected pace looks to suit him well. Hard not to give him a chance at this price.
Third and final best bet is another dutch, this time in the 20.00 at Newcastle. Anif is my top rated but similar to the above, I also like the looks of Wadacre Grace. Both have a clear advantage on my ratings. My only concern with Wadacre is that he likes to get to the front. Not worth dismissing him over but we all know that you don't often win from the front at Newcastle.
Still not many scenarios in my head where either one doesn't win this. I have been back and forward on this one the most but I can discount the other 9 runners in this race for various reasons so yes, I am comfortable with this as our third and last best bet of the day.
1st Best Bet - 18.30 Newcastle - Diligent Harry @ 3.25 - 1pt Win
2nd Best Bet - 16.55 Newcastle - Bobby Shaftoe @ 2.50 & Steel Helmet @ 8.00 - 1pt Win
3rd Best Bet - 20.00 Newcastle - Anif @ 3.50 & Wadacre Grace @ 6.00 - 1pt Win
We have quite a few strikes on the ratings for Vaal in South Africa. The best of them is Silver Mensa in the 13.05. I also think Namaqua Blossom could go well in the 10.40 and Southern Blaze in the 13.40 but neither entirely fits the profile so place only recommended.
Same story in the USA. Six strong top rated but again, it will depend on price which I won't know until the book opens tomorrow. Brandyn in race 3 at Turf Paradise is the strongest selection on the ratings by a large margin (which usually equates to an SP less than evens but sometimes am surprised). At Sunland Park, Cairo Moon in race 1 and Tsunami Gold in race 6 look like solid selections. Overall a strong each way and place accumulator bet (again dependant on price).