Successful (ish) day yesterday. Our only best bet of the day selection Pessoa duly delivered so was happy to get a winner. As I suspected we needed the P3 in the Lingfield race to land the place accumulator (and a P4 in the 19.00 Wolverhampton 😂) but any Saturday I walk away with a profit however small is a good Saturday in my book.

Quiet day again today with just Southwell to review. I have shortlisted five selections but I think we will only get involved with four of them. All at the lower end of the market unfortunately but value is still value, right?

The one we are discarding is Lord Cherry in the 16.50. I still think he will run well but too many things concern me. I like to be comfortable in my selections. Too many scenarios in my head where he gets beaten even out of the places so we'll pass.

At the other end my best bet of the day selection is Quercus Robur in the 16.20. Surprised to find him @ 3.50 as he has no rivals here. Or at least that is what I think my ratings are trying to tell me.

Forgive 2nd LTO, put it down to a pace miscalculation by the jockey. Here he is top of the table on ability and speed, has a good draw in stall 8 and I think he can overcome the latest 5lb rise in weight, especially given how he had the last race won before the finish.

Up in class this time round but still like premier league playing in league one. Kevin Scott on board who knows how to get the best from him. Definite value at this price.

Was also considering Got Bright @ 17.00 as an each way selection. Might still back him as a 0.5pt E/W, some bookies are offering 4 places. I reckon he has at least a 3rd in him. Will see what way the market swings before deciding.

My second best day of the day is actually two bets, Sicario and Miss Sligo in the 14.50. I only very occasionally dutch my bets usually when I spot a good big price each way longshot. For the win if a clear contender can't be found I usually just move on but John's strategy has inspired me to consider this approach again. And I have two horses here, well clear of the rest, that I cannot seperate.

If I had to pick one from the ratings then Sicario gets the nod by a margin so slim it is most likely a statistical anomaly. It's a dead heat so one of these two will win this. And a win by either secures a small profit so we will give this a go at 1pt each.

3rd best bet of the day, a borderline qualifier if I am honest, is The X O in the 15.50 at Southwell. Borderline not because of the horses ability. It's just that I don't like small 5 runner races as they are a bit of a lottery.

My ratings suggest The X O is the best here and should win. The Matching Sox is a close rival on the speed figures but with only 2lb in hand I think he needs more and will find himself outgunned here. I have concerns, the main one being that I don't like small 5 runner races. Have I mentioned that yet?

I am cautiously putting this forward as my 3rd best bet in the hope the race runs to form. I am comfortable and confident in the fact this will end up being either a stroke of genius or a disaster 😂

1st Best Bet - 16.20 Southwell - Quercus Robur @ 3.50. 1pt Win

2nd Best Bet - 14.50 Southwell - Sicario @ 3.25 & Miss Sligo @ 4.50. 1pt Win

3rd Best Bet - 15.50 Southwell - The X O @ 2.62. 1pt Win

All four selections - 2 x 0.5pt trebles place accumulators @ 3.50 & 4.30.

All races except the 15.50 are P3 in the place market.

Ok as promised I have reviewed my ratings for both the South African and USA races. The below are the best of my top rated selections given without any indication of price.

Be warned a lot of the time with the American selections, my top rated is the short price favourite but the win strike rate is still decent. I like to play them as small stake each way accumulators.

Where I have found consistent profit in America is in the place market. Backing my top rated in the right races, I very regularly land small 3 or 4 way place accumulators that return on average around 2.25 or 2.50. At the very minimum the return is usually evens.

It was something like a 86% or 88% overall strike rate last time I checked. I know evens doesn't sound like much but it is consistent. The ratings themselves aren't anything special, basic speed figures, an unfinished project of mine. Could be better if I had more time to develop them but alas...

One thing I know for sure is of all the "betting banks" I run for my various systems and strategies, the American place accumulator bank is one that (nearly) always sees week on week growth. A small yet consistent positive ROI.

The South African ratings are based on a similar set-up to my UK ones but I don't do the same level of deep dive as I do with the UK races. This is another unfinished project of mine, an idea I had to give me betting options during the jump season. Unfinished and could be better but usable in their current form.

These are my best top rated selections given as is without any idea of price or value. FYI the book releases the SA prices around 8am and the USA prices anytime from 8am - midday depending on the track and race post time.

South Africa - Turffontein (listed in order of preference)

14.40 - Bushveld

13.05 - Humdinger

11.20 - Broadlands / Rosslyne (potential dutching opportunity)

USA - Gulfstream & Tampa Bay (listed in order of preference)

Tampa Bay R5 - Get Even

Gulfstream R1 - Geyser Road

Tampa Bay R8 - I'll Finish