Smashed it again yesterday with an @ 6.0 winner 😎 16pts+ weekend profit. Amazing what taking the time to focus a little can achieve. Which leads me on to something I want to share...

Lately I've been thinking about all my betting activities. There has been a lot of change in my life in the past 9 months that has massively affected my free time and as a result my betting. Let me explain...

For a long time even well before all the covid crap I was working remotely from home so had the luxury of free time and the ability to set my own schedule. I had to go back to the office full time towards the end of last year which includes a 3 hour daily commute (1.5 hours each way) which as you can imagine turned my life as I knew it upside down. 

I used to have several hours a day to review ratings, watch the racing and generally involve myself in the markets looking for opportunities. Suddenly I literally had a 2-3 hour window each evening to do everything; update the database, run and review the ratings and try to get the bets on. I wasn't able to do it all within that small window of course so I was going to bed later and later. Plus the wife was giving me grief that she never saw me, all I care about is the horses, etc etc. It was consuming all my free time and more. It was unsustainable so something had to give. 

I took a break for a few months earlier this year after my accident and developed the race analysis tool in a bid to automate the race shortlisting process and save myself time. However having used it for a few weeks now I can confirm that it hasn't actually saved me any time at all. 

Granted there have been a few issues lately but on an average day overall I have saved myself no time whatsoever. I am still getting to bed far too late and with work being so busy lately (we are extremely short staffed) the long hours both at work and at this are starting to take their toll. The fact I have been using my holidays at work in order to try and maintain this is another clear indicator that my current path is unsustainable. 

However I've realised that it isn't that the race analysis tool is a failure. It actually works as intended. The issue is with all the races I cover and the multitude of systems and sub systems I run. I have my top rated system, my speed weighted system, value seeker system, etc, etc, about 10 of them each with their own individual banks and spreadsheets to maintain and update. It was fine before when I had all day to do it but I realise it is unworkable now.

My goal with this over the past few years has been to achieve a certain figure with my betting. A figure I consider to be a very safe starting bank to comfortably allow me to quit my job and go back to doing this full time if I wanted. Not necessarily saying that I would do that again as knowing you have a pay packet coming each month regardless is nice but it gives me the option and a target to shoot for. Unfortunately until I achieve that figure I need to be employed and this job pays very well. But I cannot keep burning the candle at both ends any longer.

I've given it a lot of thought recently and have come to the conclusion that I need to streamline my activity, restructure and refocus my approach. I am spending far too much time managing the various systems and not enough time in the ratings analysing the data. The race analysis tool is effective at shortlisting potential opportunities "to a certain point" but time still needs to be spent in the data getting a feel for the race, analysing the pace and figuring out how the race might unfold. I cannot automate that.

From past experience spending at least 10 minutes analysing the data for each shortlisted race is a good starting point. However I am lucky if each race is getting 3 minutes at the moment as I am rushing through it every evening and I can see it isn't working. I need to make far more effective use of my time and although this multiple system approach has been my default strategy for many years it sadly doesn't work for me anymore. 

My priority needs to be spending the time I have in the shortlisted races going through them one by one, taking the time to immerse myself in the data, understand it, playout all the scenarios until I find one that fits. This is what is missing at the moment and why I am not seeing the results I want. However this can only be achieved timewise by running a focused streamlined campaign backing only selections based on my own deep analysis. 

I need to streamline my activity so as much as I love American racing I have come to the conclusion (months ago actually) that it just isn't viable anymore. The books fuck about with the markets all the time and there is really little value to be had versus the time spent finding it and trying to get the bets on. Abandoning my North American project wil also save me at a minimum 60 minutes every day (way more when you factor in checking the markets every 10 minutes from 9am each day to get the early prices the moment they open) so it is the logical decision to make.

I will also be abandoning my European, Australian and Asian projects as all are incomplete at present and I have no time to develop them any further. However my South African database is complete and the ratings work well. The only issue is the prices aren't released until after 9am everyday which means I need to find a half hour free around that time to review them. That is very difficult for me when I am I the office.

Thing is I love South African racing, it's great fun to watch, my speed ratings are very effective there and there is value galore to be had in the early markets. There is usually just one meeting per day and a handful of tracks so updating the database and analysing the races doesn't add greatly to my workload (30-45 minutes a day tops). I will keep this and will try my best to post these selections in the mornings. 

I believe this streamlined, structured and focused approach is the only way forward for me. Like the past couple of days have reminded me the key to success (for me at least) has always been analysing the data in the ratings so I need to get back to doing that properly again. So with the way forward decided we need to discuss strategy.

My focus will be UK, Irish and South African racing only. All selections are from analysis of my ratings and will be focused predominantly on finding value. There are no minimum prices but with the runners we are targeting I am expecting a win market average over time of better than 10/1. That way a minimum strike rate as low as even 10% will still produce a profit.  

The campaign will be split into two different selection methodologies complete with their own starting bank (total bank split 50/50). I want to track the performance of each of these separately and it further divides the starting bank to help keep stakes manageable at least at this stage. 

Campaign 1 is for the top rated horses who are available at a value price whilst campaign 2 is for what my ratings refer to as danger horses who again are available at a value price. We will refer to these as Top Rated and Danger Horses moving forward.

We will back each selection in both the win only and place markets. The starting bank will be split 50/50, stakes will be 1pt per selection. 1pt = 1% of the bank with stakes recalculated only when new profit has been achieved. I hope that makes sense. 

I will use whatever book has the best early prices but will probably use the exchange for all place market bets and take whatever early price I can get. I'm using the exchange as I will play the extra places markets they have available the majority of the time depending on the selection and the price available. However I will make it clear what market I have backed each selection in. 

Ok I think that covers everything. So after I couple of misfires and a lot of thinking my official 2023 streamlined and refocused campaign is now underway. I sincerely hope this new approach works and gives me back some free time whilst still achieving my profit targets 🤞🏻 

My selections for Monday are below. Prices are what I have taken for each selection. 

Top Rated

Listowel 15.50

Glan @ 11.0 / @ 2.2 (4 TBP)

Danger Horse

Ayr 15.15

Royal Countess @ 13.0 / @ 4.1 (3 TBP)

Gowran Park 14.37

Affogato @ 26.0 / @ 4.9 (4 TBP)

Windsor 19.45

Snapcracklepop @ 15.0 / @ 2.9 (4 TBP)

Wolverhampton 17.30

Odd Socks Havana @ 9.0 / @ 2.7 (4 TBP)

Thanks,

Darth Niloc