Wouldn't have bothered today if we hadn't a free day yesterday.
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Lingfield 1.30
7/2 Daring Guest, 5/1 Darcy's Rock
5/1 Fast Danseuse, 5/1 Hellavapace
6/1 Cappananty Con, 8/1 Dark Kris
10/1 Harbour Storm, 14/1 Sweet Summer
25/1 Ummsuquaim, 33/1 Glencoe Boy
66/1 Mary Jane Clarke.
Apprentice Handicap (7f)
Partly because several 3yo's
Faces hard to judge absences
Then the luck factor comes in
DARING GUEST the favourite
May win but have to oppose him
He is an 8yo with 74 days break
Having just 1 run since April
Felt this was a win/place race
I'd go class horse + fit profile
CAPPANANTY CON I do like
Topweight with a fit profile
He is 8 now and a big weight
There are some concerns
Decided to go for a place bet
HELLAVAPACE the main bet
Lots of guesswork involved
Selection
6.00 Win Bet HELLAVAPACE 11/2-5/1
4.00 Place Bet CAPPANANTY CON 6/4
Gowran Park 2.25
9/4 So Beautiful, 100/30 Toriangel
4/1 Touching Clouds, 6/1 Lokada
8/1 Inchiquin Maid, 10/1 Accomplished
14/1 Vadiana, 16/1 Millie's Street 25/1 Cannes Do
25/1 Inablink, Pilbara Gold 50/1 Winning Mischief
100/1 Jeffs Princess.
3yo Fillies Maiden (7f)
3 horses stand out
They all have chances
And in terms of the market
They all prop each other up
Allowing us to choose two
SO BEAUTIFUL is up in trip
You would think that helps
TORIANGEL does the same
Comes from the same race
Both of these are positives
TOUCHING CLOUDS
She ran on the same card
But ran in a 10 furlong maiden
She is coming down 3f in trip
Not ideal with just 11 days off
She has some decent figures
Would be no surprise if wins
But I'd rather take two up 1f
Than the horse down 3f in trip
Selection
8.00 Win Bet SO BEAUTIFUL 9/4
2.00 Win Bet TORIANGEL 7/2-4/1
Gowran Park 2.55
2/1 Band Width, 11/4 Hypernova
5/1 Helpmeout, 7/1 Marsa, 8/1 It's Snowing
12/1 Clase Azul Ultra, 14/1 Way To Win.
3yo Handicap (7f)
5 Past renewals
Find it quite interesting
And possibly significant
Fillies won all 5 renewals
Fillies are 5-25
Males are 0-25
Best Profile
Fillies
Running within 6 weeks
Coming from 7f or more
Beaten under 5 lengths last time
Carrying 9st or more
Not coming from a maiden
Starting under 8/1 last time
Horses with this profile
Have a 5-8 record in this
Winning all 5 past renewals
One horse has this profile
HELPMEOUT 4/1-7/2
This is a small sample size
And a small field of 7 horses
So nothing would be a shock
If we can get Hypernova beat
And he has 1 run in 180 days
HELPMEOUT has a class edge
Could have a saver
Think thats probably wise
So playing the race this way
Selection
7.00 Win Bet HELPMEOUT 4/1-7/2
3.00 Win Bet BAND WIDTH 2/1-9/4
Gowran Park 3.55
9/2 Cherub Rock, 5/1 Chimeric, 6/1 Shawaf
13/2 Barnhill Rose, 8/1 Breezy Zoff, 10/1 Nyla Rua
12/1 Rose Of Malta, Rosie Rock, 14/1 No Show
14/1 Qaabil, Scream, 16/1 Beleaguerment
20/1 Accessory, Warp Speed, 25/1 Skontonovski
25/1 Stardayz.
8f Apprentice Handicap
Some of these look unfit
WARP SPEED is a filly
She's ran once in 15 months
STARDAYZ has 1 run in 119 days
QAABIL absent over 12 months
BREEZY ZOFF is a 3yo filly
Not a negative but 62 days off
Disappointed last time out too
Good yard but asking a lot
To win in a field this size
High draws have struggled
Gowran Park
Handicaps over 8f
Since 2015
Horses aged 5 or more
Drawn 11 or higher
Have a 1-141 record
The following all fail this
CHIMERIC a 5yo drawn 16
NO SHOW a 5yo drawn 12
Hard to like down 4 furlongs
ROSE OF MALTA is a 3yo filly
She is going up in distance
Not been lucky drawn in 17
Never ran over a mile before
ACCESSORY is running slowly
BELEAGUERMENT low figures
SCREAM also has this problem
SKONTONOVSKI has a chance
But may be better on the sand
Has not hot form this year yet
ROSIE ROCK an exposed filly
Has not been running too well
CHERUB ROCK is a 3yo filly
Not the easiest draw in stall 13
Go back to 2011
8f Handicaps here
No 3yo filly has won
Drawn 13 or more
All 54 that tried failed
Shortlist
BARNHILL ROSE is a positive
Plenty to like about his profile
Not least her previous 2 races
Drawn 16/16 at Bellewstown
Drawn 15 or 15 over 7f here
SHAWAF is a 6 year old
His 4th run after 7 months off
Has he ran himself fit enough ?
Can't rule out on his last race
But in the time he has ran once
BARNHILL ROSE has had 4 runs
Both come from the same race
That was just a week ago now
Last years winner did the same
Selection
BARNHILL ROSE 5/1-11/2
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4 (5)
Gowran Park 4.25
7/2 Eastern Racer 5/1 Harbanaker
7/1 Phoenix Open, 8/1 Zaur
10/1 Salt Whistle Bay 12/1 Lifeinthefastlane
14/1 Srowland Jack, 16/1 Double Martini
16/1 Finke River, Fit For Function, 20/1 Zonik
25/1 Angel On Fire, Dodie Baby, 33/1 Emeric
33/1 Nebulla.
8f Apprentice Handicap
Not a good place for high draws
None drawn high today appealed
Gowran Park
Handicaps over 8f
Since 2015
Horses aged 5 or more
Drawn 11 or higher
Have a 1-141 record
The following all fail this
EMERIC
DOUBLE MARTINI
DODIE BABY
SROWLAND JACK
EASTERN RACER is drawn
Could forgive him a high draw
Given he has a very recent win
But he is 10 years old now
Might need some good fortune
NEBULA is 10 with an unfit profile
FIT FOR FUNCTION is 9 years old
Up in trip scoring poor numbers
LIFEINTHEFASTLANE has 4 runs
Not suitable for an Apprentice race
Especially with 114 days absence
ANGEL ON FIRE similar problems
FINKE RIVER is too inexperienced
ZONIK is 3 years old and a gelding
Heavy defeat last time no momentum
SALT WHISTLE BAY is an 8yo
Has backclass and well treated
But just the one win in years
Running a little short of his best
PHOENIX OPEN is a 6yo
Low scoring strike rate
His trainer has plenty of winners
But since 2021 has a 0-82 record
Has got himself well handicapped
But 39 days off should test him
Stall 1 may or may not help either
But he was favourite for this race
Beaten from a bad draw in 2021
ZAUR won two races ago
Last time he finished 18th of 18
But he was drawn badly in stall 18
Dom we forgive him that poor run
Knowing he had an excuse for it
But also knowing it was 7 days ago
HARBANKER was just behind her
He badly missed the break that day
No strong statistical objections
Was split staking this race
But the favourite has withdrawn
Selection
HARBANKER 4/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Haydocks Sprint Cup
Saturday 3rd September
4/1 Minzaal, 5/1 Highfield Princess, 6/1 Naval Crown
7/1 Emaraaty Ana, 9/1 Rohaan, 10/1 Tenebrism
10/1 Kinross, 10/1 Art Power, 12/1 Royal Aclaim
12/1 Brad The Brief, 12/1 Go Bears Go, 14/1 El Caballo
16/1 Flotus, 20/1 Benefit, 20/1 Romantic Proposal
20/1 Harry Three, 20/1 Dragon Symbol, 25/1 Mitbaahy
25/1 Khaadem, 33/1 Power Under Me, 33/1 Twilight Jet
33/1 Vadream, 33/1 Castle Star, 33/1 Flaming Rib
33/1 Chil Chil, 33/1 Great Ambassador, 40/1 Dubawi Legend
50/1 Method, 50/1 New York City, 50/1 Run To Freedom
50/1 Umm Kulthum, 66/1 Hala Hala Athmani
80/1 Ventura Diamond,
Established in 1966
No horse aged 8 or older
Have ever won this Group 1
Past winners
Had the following official ratings
115 120 114 116 119 115 104
111 114 117 124 113 109 114
Past winners
Had the following career starts
18 27 6 19 6 8 4 7 30 17 7 29
Past winners
Had the following runs since March
7 3 3 4 7 2 6 7 3 3 4
Horses aged 3
Have won 10 recent renewals
They had 6 6 8 4 7 7 8 10 7 11 runs
Horses aged 4
Have the weakest age record
Have a 1-56 record since 2005
Have a 0-44 record since 2009
May lack strength of older horses
Lack the improvement of 3yo's
Horses aged 5
Won 9 of the last 19 races
They all had 3 or more runs that year
They all had 13-30 career starts
No winners aged 5 or more
Has managed to win this race
With under 3 runs that season
Horses aged 6 or more
Have a 3-69 record since 1997
They had 3 4 5 runs since March
Horses aged 6 or more
Who had more than 2 runs
In the previous 12 weeks
Had a 0-39 record in the race
Past winners
Had the following absences
15 78 77 56 56 84 15 23 56
56 49 21 16 9 42 57 15 77 16
Horses from 5f races
All came from the Nunthorpe
Horses doing this were 5-58
Those beaten under 3 lengths 5-28
Those beaten over 3 lengths 0-29
None from another 5f race won
Horses from 7f or more
Have a 3-47 record
They were aged 3 5 5
All had 3 + runs that season
All lost by under 3 lengths last time
Fillies won 1 recent renewal
None managed it aged 4 or more
Horses who last time out
Were beaten over 6 lengths
Have a 1-60 record in this
Group 1 Sprints
Run over 5f and 6f
Any time of the year
Since 1997
Horses aged 3 or more
Running within 20 days
Coming from a 5f race
Beaten over 5 lengths last time
Have a 0-43 record in them
A lot in his favor, on a winning mark, trainer good win percentage 33% since 2010 at course, couple of negatives, distance on the short side only won at 2mls and is he as good at 9yo hopefully he is but yet to show it of late. Good luck.