Account bet

Haydock 2.40

NOMADIC EMPIRE 8/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4

Preview Selections

Ripon 1.25

Wade's Magic 11/4 Win Bet

Chester 2.15

8.00 Win Bet Paws For Thought 5/1-11/2

1.00 Win Bet Mighty Gurkha 10/1

1.00 Win Bet Melody Of Life 7/1-15/2

Market Rasen 2.18

The Churchill Lad 9/4 Win BetNewmarket 2.25

6.00 Win Bet Lezoo 15/2-8/1

4.00 Place Bet Swingalong 2/1-9/4

Listowel 2.30

Alvaro 6/1-11/2 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5

Haydock 2.40

Nomadic Empire 8/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4

Newmarket 3.00

6.00 Win Bet Blackbeard 11/4

4.00 Place Bet Persian Force 11/8

Chester 3.25

£4.50 Each Way Call My Bluff 7/1 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5

£1.00 Win Bet Smart Champion 10/1

Newmarket 3.40

3.00 Each Way Bell Rock 14/1-16/1

2.00 Each Way Brilliant Light 25/1

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5-6

Chester 4.35

Jupiter And Mars 4/1 Each Way

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Ripon 1.25 11/4 Hurstwood, 100/30 Wade's Magic

11/2 Rhythm, 7/1 Bossipop, 8/1 Nibras Again

10/1 Ginato, 12/1 Brides Bay, Point Of Woods

16/1 Excessable.

6f Handicap

Tricky course for sprints More than it's share of shocks

HURTSWOOD is favourite

He has raced once in 59 days That is not a dealbreaker

But it is hardly ideal in a sprint

And what may be more relevant

In the same period he has 1 run

Every other horse in this race

Has raced more times than him

August to November

6f Handicaps on turf

Class 6 races

If I look at all these races

Fillies aged 4

Coming from 5f races

Running in the last 4 weeks

Return a 0-33 record in them

RHYTHM fails this statistic In the same period of races

Horses aged 8 or more

Coming from 5f races

Absent more than 13 days

Return a 0-62 record in them

NIBRAS AGAIN fails this stat

Plenty of complications

You can give a few a chance

If you forgive some poor last runs

BOSSIPOP is a prime example

But he is 9 years old

Beaten14 lengths last time

That was just 2 days ago

Not a very pleasant profile

But a big drop in grade here

He has raced 101 times now

None were in a class so low

So I can see why he can win

And why he is being backed GINATO can't be ruled out

But in last weeks message

WADES MAGIC was selected

As an each way bet at Catterick With the benefit of hindsight He should have been staked He finished placed each way

But his jockey rode a bad race

Gave him too much to do there Just about the fittest profile I think he will win this race He is around 11/4 I would go each way Appreciate few will like that But he has been on my radar He has proven himself here And I am expecting him to win Selection WADES MAGIC 11/4 Win Bet

Chester 2.15

5/1 Cliffcake, 11/2 Poet's Magic

6/1 Ffion 7/1 Mighty Gurkha, 8/1 Melody Of Life

10/1 Paws For Thought, 10/1 Royal Musketeer

12/1 Gabrial The Devil, Yanifer, 14/1 Hathlool

14/1 Little Boy Blue,16/1 Mossbawn.

7f Handicap

This is very messy

So many have absences

Non runners could hurt us

GABRIAL THE DEVIL a 7yo

Makes no appeal drawn in 13

He is one of the lightweights

These lightweights him aside

All seem to have nasty absences

Bottom 8 horses in the weights

Come with several weeks break

Against the highest draws

There is no one good profile

Shortlisted only these 4 horses

FFION 6/1

MELODY OF LIFE 7/1

MIGHTY GURKER 9/1

PAWS FOR THOUGHT 6/1

PAWS FOR THOUGHT

His last 2 runs at Chester

Came from stalls 12 and 13

A bit better draw today stall 8

Have to take a guess here Selection 8.00 Win Bet PAWS FOR THOUGHT 5/1-11/2 1.00 Win Bet MIGHTY GURKER 10/1 1.00 Win Bet MELODY OF LIFE 7/1-15/2

Market Rasen 2.18

5/2 The Churchill Lad, 3/1 Just Another One

7/2 Cape Helles, Exciting News, 10/1 Jewel Of Kabeir

16/1 Via Serica.

3yo Hurdle

Some crazy angles here

Maybe too good to be true

There is a nasty twist though

CAPE HELLES has been backed

EXCITING NEWS has been too

The latter trained by Dan Skelton

But these are both only fillies

July to December

3yo Hurdle races

Fillies

No hurdle runs

Previous flat form

Under 7 career starts

Have a 0-205 record

CAPE HELLES fails this 0-205 stat

EXCITING NEWS fails this as well

JEWEL OF KABEIR also fails this

So can we trust that

These 3 negatives

Including two well backed

Make up half the field here

Small fields weaken angles

There is also a twist

Fillies like these score very well

In juvenile maiden hurdle races

But this is not a juvenile maiden

THE CHURCHILL LAD has won

So technically the fillies are unsafe

The main issue here

THE CHURCHILL LAD a winner

Can he defy a penalty in this race

Against some fancied females

I don't know the answer

My angles suggest he should

September and October

3yo hurdle races

Male horses

Winning a hurdle last time

Just 1 previous hurdle run

Previous form on the flat

Under 9 career starts

Running 16-34 days ago

Have a strong 6-12 record

THE CHURCHILL LAD has this

The 12 horses who tried

Finished in these positions

W W W W W W 4 4 4 4 2 2

My angles are clear

THE CHURCHILL LAD stands out

And should be beating these fillies

There may be other dangers

JUST ANOTHER ONE possibly

But raw and not a strong profile

The selection picks itself

Not as convinced myself

As the angles suggest I should be

I have my own strategy in this

THE CHURCHILL LAD each way

Even with just 2 places available

But the official selection is this

Selection THE CHURCHILL LAD 2/1 Win Bet

Newmarket 2.25

2/1 Meditate, 9/4 Trillium, 6/1 Swingalong

13/2 Lezoo, 9/1 Juliet Sierra, 10/1 Treasure Trove

16/1 Mawj, 33/1 Malrescia, 33/1 Maylandsea

66/1 Wave Machine.

heveley Park Stakes

Group 1 (6f) 2yo fillies

TRILLIUM is well backed

One of many who can win

She is coming up from 5f

Last year was the first time

A horse from a 5f race won

All 40 that tried had failed

But she had months off

Which seems less relevant

Generic Statistic

Go back to 2007

2yo Group 1 races (6f)

Both fillies only races

And all sex races

Horses from 5f races

Running within 5 months

Under 9 career runs

Have a 0-50 record in them

TRILLIUM fails this statistic

MEDITATE offer us a lot

Unlucky over 7f last time

When she had the worst draw

But do we want a trip dropper

Only 1 of the last 21 winners

Dropped down from a 7f race

That was the 2016 winner

Who came from the same race

Being out of a Dalakhani mare

It does not feel a natural move

But I still see her as a positive

Best trial race

Lowther Stakes at York

Horses running in this race

Have an 8-46 record in this

Winning in these years 1997 1998 2001 2003

2012 2014 2015 2018

Horses 1st or 2nd in the Lowther

Have a brilliant 8-31 record in this

SWINGALONG won the Lowther

The only thing that worries me

SWINGALONG was an outsider

She won the Lowther at 25/1

Felt that undermines this angle

Because of that annoying issue

Decided to split stake this race

LEZOO getting the final decision

SWINGALONG as the place bet

Selection

Small Stakes

6.00 Win Bet LEZOO15/2-8/1 4.00 Place Bet SWINGALONG 2/1-9/4

Listowel 2.30

5/1 Watch The Weather, 7/1 Alvaro, 10/1 Auckland

10/1 Blanketontheground Downtown Queen, Nibblers Charm

10/1 Skippin Court, Young Dev, 14/1 Bread And Butter

14/1 Krabat, 14/1 Listentillitellyea, 14/1 Unexpected Depth

16/1 Ballybaun Star, Jimmy Jimmy, Son Of Hypnos

18/1 Ballyadam Destiny, 20/1 Damalisque, Dorans Boy.

Handicap Hurdle

Big field

No time for a big preview

Worked on the best profile

Horses aged 6 or 7

Over 12 career starts

Between 7-8-9-10 hurdle runs

Carrying 11st 4lbs or less

Coming from 2m 3f or more

Horses with this profile

Have a 6-8 record in this The only years a qualifier race They won the race 2010 2013 2016 2018 2019 2021

One qualifier

Selection

ALVARO 6/1-11/2 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5

Haydock 2.40

5/1 Equality, 6/1 Count D'orsay 9/1 Isle Of Lismore

9/1 Nomadic Empire, 10/1 The Thin Blue Line

11/1 Zarzyni, 12/1 Show Me Show Me, 14/1 Sound Reason

14/1 Stone Of Destiny, 16/1 Sunday Sovereign

20/1 Burning Cash 20/1 Copper Knight, 20/1 Night On Earth

20/1 Ventura Flame 25/1 Glory Fighter.

5f Handicap

Starting with the draw

Haydock 5f handicaps

Class 3 or higher

Any time of year

Since 2005

Horses drawn 14 or more

Have a 0-50 record

NIGHT ON EARTH is drawn 16

EQUALITY badly drawn stall 14

SHOW ME SHOW ME is as well

Could this be relevant ?

Go back to 2004

Haydock handicaps

Every race over 5f 6f 7f

Run in Class 2 and higher

With 9 or more runners

Horses aged 6 or more

Absent more than 7 days

Drawn in stalls 1-2-3-4

Have a 0-71 record

COUNT D'ORSAY fails this

He is favourite drawn one

Interesting to see how he goes

Failing this and other angles

Recent runs

Are very important in this race

Horses aged 5 or more

Absent more than 8 days

Have a 0-89 record in this

Opposing the following

Whose profile is not ideal

SUNDAY SOVEREIGN

COPPER KNIGHT

GLORY FIGHTER

COUNT D'ORSAY

Harsh to oppose some of those

COUNT D'ORSAY one of those

He comes from the Portland Good trial race 13 days before

But the 5 past winners from there Were all 3 and 4 year old winners And none were aged 5 or more Which contributes to a bad record Of older horses absent over 8 days

SOUND REASON absent 56 days Every past winner ran within 28 days He fails the following strange generic

Go back to 1997 Haydock 5f 6f 7f Class 2 Handicaps

Horses aged 4 or more Coming from Class 4 or lower Absent more than 7 days Return a 0-75 record in them SOUND REASON has this profile ISLE OF LISMORE has this as well STONE OF DESTINY doesn't appeal VENTURE FLAME opposable too THE THIN BLUE LINE not first choice

He is a 4 year old drawn in stall 12 The last 4yo over this course/distance To win drawn 12 or higher was 2003 He's never won above Class 4 grade He has not won off his current rating

ZARZYNI must have a chance Horses from the Ayr Gold Cup Have won this race 3 times before The issue with him was a choice

Make him saver or chuck him out On the grounds he has topweight And just 3 runs in 4 months now My angles can not match him well So reluctantly going to pass him up

Horses from the Portland Have won this race 5 times They all shared this profile

Aged under 5 Beaten under 7 lengths At least 3 runs in 12 months Horses with this profile

Have a 6-14 record in this Includes last years winner BURNING CASH almost has it Beaten over 7 lengths last time Not ruling him out on that alone But prefer one or two others

NOMADIC EMPIRE is best fit He shares that 6-14 profile

Selection

NOMADIC EMPIRE 8/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4

Newmarket 3.00

5/2 Marshman, 11/4 Blackbeard

3/1 Mischief Magic, 6/1 Persian Force

11/1 Zoology, 12/1 The Antarctic

66/1 Never Just A Dream

100/1 Once More For Luck.

Middle Park Stakes

Not many can be ruled out

ZOOLOGY has most to prove

Having raced just once before

Past winners had these runs

5 3 4 2 8 9 5 3 4 4 3 2 3

None of them had raced once

MARSHMAN has 3 runs

He was 2nd in the Gimcrack

2 past winners prepped there

They both won the Gimcrack

They both had 4 career runs

MARSHMAN has only had 3

Horses beaten in it were 0-10

When trying to win this race

MISCHIEF MAKER has 4 runs

He just won the Sirenia Stakes

Horses from that race are 0-6

No real reason why he can't win

The race has few negatives

Just positives from a good trial

The Prix Morny Has been a superb trial race Several winners prepped there In the most recent seasons The 2010 2019 2021 winners All came from the Prix Morny

BLACKBEARD won that race PERSIAN FORCE was in 2nd THE ANTARCTIC was in 3rd THE ANTARCTIC is rejected Looks the O'Brien number 2

The other pair BLACKBEARD PERSIAN FORCE

Dominated the market there And dominated the finish History tells us the winner More often than not ran there

Need to make sure if either win

We can not lose on the race Don't feel I have the negatives To risk a win and saver bet here

BLACKBEARD each way 11/4

Does appeal to me as the bet But won't inflict that on everyone Split stake instead

Selection 6.00 Win Bet BLACKBEARD 11/4 4.00 Place Bet PERSIAN FORCE 5/4

Chester 3.25

5/1 Alfred Boucher, 6/1 Anna Bunina

8/1 Reshoun, 8/1 Smart Champion, 9/1 Call My Bluff

9/1 Frankenstella, 12/1 Fair Star, 12/1 Star Caliber

14/1 Alpine Stroll, 14/1 Emiyn, 14/1 Land Of Winter

14/1 Morando, 16/1 Cormier, 16/1 Haizoom

20/1 Dark Jedi, 20/1 Sir Chauvelin.

Handicap 2m 2f

Marathon distance

Quality handicap

Few similar races run

The 3 highest draws 14-15-16

Have been landed by horses

Facing absences of 5 + weeks

That sounds a toxic recipe

ANNA BUNINA a mare drawn 15

Has not raced in 37 days now

EMILYN badly drawn 16 of 16

Has a similar absence as well

FRANKENSTELLA is underraced

Just 2 runs in 16 months now

And has a nasty wide draw too

Opposing the following

CORMIER from a 10f race

SIR CHAUVELIN as a 10 year old

MORANDO an underraced 9yo

LAND OF WINTER 1 run in 111 days

HAIZOOM drawn 12 up two grades

DARK JEDI fails breeding statistics

STAR CALIBER has a high draw

Just the 3 runs in 11 months now

FAIR STAR is running well

But is going up 6f in distance

With a short 9 day absence

This is a worrying statistic

Go back to 2007

Every handicap over 2m +

Run in Class 2 or higher

Horses aged 6 or more

Coming from 12f or shorter

Running within 31 days

Return a 0-82 record in them

FAIR STAR fails this 0-82 stat

CORMIER fails this 0-82 stat

SIR CHAUVELIN fails this 0-82 stat

RESHOUN is 8 years old

He has a handicap mark of 104

Topweight may be asking a lot

ALPINE STROLL is a 4 year old

Go back to 2003

Chester handicaps

Any distance

Any class

Any time of year

Mix the following

Horses aged 4

Over 12 career runs

Absent more than 39 days

Drawn in stall 8 or higher

There is a 0-54 record in them

ALPINE STROLL is rejected

That leaves 3 horses

ALFRED BOUCHER

SMART CHAMPION

CALL MY BLUFF

ALFRED BOUCHER will be tested

Mixes an absence and big weight

Combined with being drawn in 10

There are a few holes in that profile

Never won off his current rating

His sire has bred winners over 17f +

But none won above Class 5 before The remaining 2 horses

All have very recent runs SMART CHAMPION CALL MY BLUFF

SMART CHAMPION has a fair chance

But stall 1 may or may not help him

Not over keen on the stable either

And never won in a big field before

CALL MY BLUFF

Ran only 7 days ago

Came 3rd in Cesarewitch trial

That could come too soon

If so then he will get beaten If instead it helps him here Benefiting from the recent run

Then he has a massive chance

We can't know the answer now Selection 4.50 Each Way CALL MY BLUFF 7/1 1.00 Win Bet SMART CHAMPION 10/1 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5

Newmarket 3.40

4/1 Mujtaba, 7/1 Protagonist, 9/1 Savvy Victory

10/1 Totally Charming, 12/1 Dual Identity, 14/1 Jimi Hendrix

14/1 Electrical Storm, 14/1 First View, 14/1 Kitsune Power

16/1 Bell Rock, Injazati, 20/1 Brilliant Light, Majestic Dawn

25/1 Arqoob, 25/1 Dutch Decoy, Forest Falcon, 25/1 Lucander

25/1 Magical Morning, Night Of Luxury, Perotto, 33/1 Caradoc

33/1 Carolus Magnus, Majestic, Ouzo, 40/1 Austrian Theory

40/1 Notre Belle Bete, 50/1 Fast Medicine, 50/1 Pistoletto

66/1 Geremia.

Cambridgeshire Handicap

Sent some statistics midweek

They suggested possible flaws

In William Haggas's favourites

Go back 22 years (2000)

Horses aged 4 or more

Winning last time out

Have a poor 0-69 record

MUJTABA has this to overcome

PROTAGONIST also faces this

SAVVY VICTORY is well fancied

Have reservations at the price

Those winning last time out

Running in the last 45 days

Have a horrible 1-101 record

SAVVY VICTORY fails this stat

I'd also worry about stall 13

Past renewals since 2011

When the stalls renumbered

Horses drawn in stalls 10-18

Have a winless 0-99 record

SAVVY VICTORY fails this

Being drawn in the middle

My midweek statistics

Produced this shortlist

BELL ROCK 20/1

DUAL IDENTITY 11/1

TOTALLY CHARMING 16/1

KITSUNE POWER 25/1

BRILLIANT LIGHT 25/1

If one of these wins

I will be happy enough

As my stats will be right

If we get the winner too

That will be down to luck

TOTALLY CHARMING is out

His 101 day break not ideal

And he is drawn in stall 15

Failing the above draw stat

DUAL IDENTITY is drawn 6

KITSUNE POWER drawn 7

The last 6 winners

Were drawn 21 25 29 21 29 28

Single figure draws

Last won this race in 2015

Could be asking for trouble

DUAL IDENTITY is exposed

Horses aged 4 like him

With more than 14 races

Have a miserable 1-141 record

DUAL IDENTITY has this profile

Horses aged 3

Over 6 career starts

Coming from 9f or more

Absent more than 14 days

Have a 0-31 record in this

KITSUNE POWER does this

SAVVY VICTORY does too

SAVVY VICTORY badly drawn

Did cost a lot of money at 240k

He could well grab a place here

May win but the draw puts me off Given the angles The above work and draw Going to stake it this way

Selection

3.00 Each Way BELL ROCK 14/1-16/1 2.00 Each Way BRILLIANT LIGHT 25/1 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5-6

Chester 4.35

7/4 Silent Monarch, 2/1 Follow That Star

9/2 Jupiter And Mars, 7/1 Dolly Gray, 10/1 Al Baahy

20/1 Dedenne, 25/1 Derrymore Boy, 66/1 Another Quirke

66/1 Blue Hawaii, Darkest Dream.

yo Novice (7f)

SILENT MONARCH

Won first time out at Beverley

Fancied that day the favourite

JUPITER AND MARS in 2nd

He had the benefit of 3 races

But don't see that as significant

He may have gone off too fast

He could easily reverse the form

One of the reasons for saying this

SILENT MONARCH is drawn 10

Go back to 2000

Chester 7f races

And the extended 7f

Any kind of race

Any class of race

Any time of year

Horses with under 2 runs

Drawn in stall 8 or higher

Have a poor 1-115 record

Since 2007 they are 0-77

SILENT MONARCH fails this

Drawn 10 having raced once

Draw stats say oppose him There are other dangers Given the options and prices I would go with this selection

Selection

JUPITER AND MARS 4/1

Each Way