Today's Best Bet
Pontefract 5.10
4.00 Each Way COTTAM LANE 12/1-14/1 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
2.00 Win Bet IT JUST TAKES TIME 4/1
Preview Selections
Listowel 2.00
Higher Kingdom 10/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Listowel 3.10
3.50 Each Way Allihies 16/1-18/1 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
3.00 Place Bet Snag It 9/4
Newmarket 3.35
5.00 Win Bet Island Brave 7/1-8/1
5.00 Win Bet Thunderous 1/1-11/10
Pontefract 4.03
Rayong 7/2-100/30
Each Way
Pontefract 5.10
4.00 Each Way Cottam Lane 14/1 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
2.00 Win Bet It Just Takes Time 4/1
Today's Message
Newmarket starts their meeting
All a little bit too pathetic there
With lost of smaller field sizes
Today is not unlike yesterdays
Covers some difficult handicaps
With a softer race thrown in too
Strategy worked a treat yesterday
Today is a bit harder to negotiate
Listowel has 2 previews
But being flooded by non runners
The card is now being dismantled
Not bothered from our point of view
As both previews select outsiders
Listowel 2.00
HIGHER KINGDOM 10/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Had him in a split stake bet
But there are 6 non runners
The whole frame changed
Hopefully that will help him
Not sure if today is his day
Seems to be on the comeback
Might be next time he peaks
But 10/1 in this reduced field
Seems to be a bit generous
Pontefract 4.03
RAYONG 7/2-100/30 Each Way
Have this as a match
Rayong and Runningwild
Could go for win and saver
Decided to go each way
Today's Best Bet
Pontefract 5.10
4.00 Each Way COTTAM LANE 14/1 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
2.00 Win Bet IT JUST TAKES TIME 4/1
My angles seem very clear
They take out the 3 year olds
Take out the older horses
I shortlisted just 3 horses
To go each way just meant
I had to sacrifice one horse
Sod's law that one will win
But I settled on these two
Partially down to a video
That I watched on twitter
Jockey got off him last time
Said he needs a tongue tie
low and behold
He has a first time tongue tie
Significant ?
Coincidence ?
Not that bothered at 12/1-14/1
Feel we have a good chance
Yesterday's Summary
Brilliant best bet winner yesterday
Don't feel like basking in any glory
Been quite a subdued few weeks
But that big priced winner may yet
Prove to be the real gamechanger
Not only clears up plenty of mess
The second account of best bets
Are now secure and self sufficient
Allowing the harder work to come
In getting to grips with staked bets
Macgiloney won returning at 25/1
Riggs even managed to get third
Incalcuable benefits in confidence
And taking some pressure off too
Coverdale finished placed e/way
Never smelt fancied or threatened
With hindsight we got all we could
The Turpinator never threatened
Kerry National was a bit ridiculous
The winner a 5yo bust my statistics
But he was lucky to have won that
But the unlucky horse who failed
Was still a bad result statistically
El Barra a place bet unseated 9th
That basically cooked our goose
The reserve runners were a pest
Rock Road ended up taking part
I would have made him my choice
In the end you could take a view
Not everyone knew the selection
Found the whole process a mess
Rock Road died during the race
Which puts it in some perspective
Overall though a vintage message
Brilliant highly profitable best bet
That may be the start of a good run
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Listowel 2.00
4/1 Soilse, 7/1 Darkened, 7/1 Run The Jewels
14/1 Higher Kingdom 16/1 Glandore Harbour
16/1 Millyupdahilly, 16/1 Stormie Outlook
22/1 Chatterbox 25/1 Way To Win, 25/1 Khafaaq,
8f Handicap
The same type of horse
Has thrived in this race
Younger fitter types
11 Past renewals
They were all aged 3-4-5
Horses aged 6 or more
Have a 0-39 record in this
KHAFAAQ fails this aged 7
DARKENED does too aged 6
Neither of these horses
Have ran in the last 4-5 weeks
All 11 past winners
Ran within the last 37 days
Those absent longer are 0-37
The following all fail this angle
DARKENED
MILLYUPDAHILLY
RUN THE JEWELS
It is not just a recent run needed
All 11 previous winners of this
Raced at least twice in 12 weeks
The following horses have not
STORMIE OUTLOOK fails this
He's raced just once in 152 days
She is a filly with just 4 career runs
We have had winners with 7 8 6 runs
But horses with under 6 races
Have a 0-16 record in this race
SOILSE has the same problems
She has had just 4 career starts
And just 1 run in 121 days now
Horses with under 6 races
Have a 0-16 record in this race
CHATTERBOX has just 4 runs
Bit short of runs for a filly
WAY TO WIN is running slowly
GLANDORE HARBOUR a 4yo filly
Fillies aged 4 score very nicely
Winning 5 of the last 11 renewals
But they all had 6 or more races
GLANDORE HARBOUR has 5
She might just get away with it
But she is going up in distance
Horses like her up in distance
Have a 2-52 record in the race
Those with under 12 runs 0-25
She fails another angle as well
Horses with under 5 career runs
In the previous 12 months
Have a 0-30 record in the race
GLANDORE HARBOUR fails this
So do the following horses too
RUN THE JEWELS
SOILSE
MILLYUPDAHILLY
STORMIE OUTLOOK
CHATTERBOX
SHEILA
She won this last season
If she runs going to leave her
She is an older 5 year old mare
She has raced once in 109 days
She could be on the bounce here
PIMSTREL is an older mare
Just 1 run in the last 102 days
HIGHER KINGDOM is topweight
Horses with 9st 12lbs or more
Have a 0-19 record in this race
HIGHER KINGDOM has 4lbs more
Has a weak recent race as well
So why is he on the shortlist
He may be coming back to form
His run two races ago showed it
Watching his Punchestown run
He was given far too much to do
Made significant quiet ground up
Watched and felt it was promising
Could be on the way back to form
May need another run hard to tell
But he could be good enough
Having come down the weights
Selection
HIGHER KINGDOM 10/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Listowel 3.10
9/2 Flame Of Eire, 13/2 Angel Girl,
9/1 The Blue Panther, 10/1 Excuzio Joe
10/1 Kodiac Prince 10/1 Ransom, 12/1 Elmos Fire
12/1 Snag It, 14/1 Eloquent Arthur
14/1 Starting Monday, 20/1 Allihies
25/1 Prince Of Peace.
9f Handicap
The draw is strange here
Only a handful of 9 races
May lead to false results
But they clearly show
Horses drawn in stalls 6-10
Have the best record so far
Horses drawn 1-2-3-4-5 are 1-50
Horses drawn 11 or higher 0-33
Given ground and field size
Decided to oppose all the horses
With just 1 run in the last 50 days
FLAME OR EIRE fails this
And drawn 18 may be no help
EXCUZIO JOE the same problem
High draw (19) and short of runs
ELMOS FIRE also fails this
Happy to ignore off 48 days
PRINCE OF PEACE underraced
KODIAC PRINCE has a month off
Just 1 run in the last 7 weeks
No negative from a good draw
But just preferred some others
SNAG IT has stall 17
Did not feel he offered enough
To turn a blind eye to his draw
ZAHEE is in the same position
ALLIHIES has similar problems
STARTING MONDAY is unsafe
As a 5yo with 58 days absence
THE BLUE PANTHER Is fit
But is week on sire statistics
His sires runners over 8f or more
Running on softer than good
Have a poor 0-28 record so far
ELOQUENT ARTHUR drawn high
Has a jockey with a 0-24 record
ANGEL GIRL is a 3yo filly
Won last time and momentum
Stall 2 may not as good a draw
As some are presuming here
She has to get the trip as well
More positive than negative
But misses out on the shortlist
RANSOM is drawn 13
I'd have preferred a bit lower
But one of the fitter profiles
Not going to shortlist him
He is going up 2 furlongs
With a short 2 day absence
Can not match him to a winner
My planned selection
He is now a non runner
There has been 4 of those
Messes up the draw stats
Now I can only really guess
Selection
3.50 Each Way ALLIHIES 16/1-18/1 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
3.00 Place Bet SNAG IT 9/4
Newmarket 3.35
11/10 Thunderous, 7/2 Nate The Great
5/1 Ranch Hand, 13/2 Island Brave
10/1 Skycutter.
Rose Bowl Stakes
Listed race (2m)
Nasty little race
We have 2 absent horses
July to December
Listed and Group races
Run over 2 miles or more
Horses with over 11 runs
Absent more than 85 days
Have a 0-26 record in then
RANCH HAND fails this stat
He has 467 days absence
SKYCUTTER has 124 days off
Also fails this absence angle
NATE THE GREAT is a 6yo
He has recently lost his form
Has excuses for 3 poor runs
But no momentum anymore
ISLAND BRAVE has a chance
If he recovers from last time
THUNDEROUS is 5 years old
Should win at these weights
Do we go for a short price ?
Or do we use him as a saver ?
Decided to split stake this
Selection
5.00 Win Bet ISLAND BRAVE 7/1
5.00 Win Bet THUNDEROUS 1/1-11/10
Pontefract 4.03
9/4 Runninwild, 7/2 Lord Riddiford, 5/1 Rayong
8/1 Ventura Express, 10/1 Ready Freddie Go, Showalong
12/1 Mytilda, 16/1 Jawwaal, 25/1 Ginger Jam.
5f Handicap
Short history to this race
MYTIDA a 3yo is the wrong age
She is underraced this season
Similiar handicaps here suggest
In the previous 3 months
We require at least 4 races
Raising questions about these
MYTIDA
SHOWALONG
JAWAAL
LORD RIDDIFORD
LORD RIDDIFORD also lacks this
He represents a couple in this race
Well beaten in better grades last time
But bringing excuses into the race
His excuse a bad draw last time out
That type have not prospered in this
No past winner on their latest start
Was beaten more than 6 lengths
READY STEADY GO fails this as well
VENTURA EXPRESS down in class
Did enough last time to consider
But being drawn 9 of 9 is an issue
Go back to 2005
Pontefract 5f handicaps
Under 11 career starts
Horses with over 3 runs
Absent more than 9 days
Drawn 9 or more are 0-41
GINGER JAM is beatable
Not exactly running at his peak
RUNNINGWILD is shortlistable
His 3 career best figures
Came in his last 4 races
The only blip was at York
When drawn in stall 20 of 20
RAYONG is also a big player
Unlucky 2nd in this race last year
He has raced 5 times over C+D
Finishing 3 W 4 2 W in them all
R. Post Ratings 88 91 79 86 101
Suggests todays rating of 80
Should be well within his grasp
Selection
Option 1
7.00 Win Bet RAYONG 7/2-100/30
3.00 Win Bet RUNNINGWILD 5/2
Option 2
RAYONG 7/2-100/30 Each Way
Pontefract 5.10
7/2 Corinthia Knight, 7/2 It Just Takes Time, 5/1 Speedacus
13/2 Haymaker, 8/1 Pockley, 12/1 Ibiza Rocks, 14/1 Ey Up Its The Boss
14/1 Golden Apollo, 16/1 Churchill Bay, 16/1 Cottam Lane
20/1 Bossipop, 33/1 Dark Shot.
6f Handicap
Opposing 3 year olds
Similar 6f handicaps
Run during September
Horses aged 3
More than 8 career starts
Absent more than 50 days
Have a 0-34 record in them
SPEEDCACUS fails this angle
With 10 runs and 75 days off
Horses aged 3
More than 11 career runs
Absent over 30 days
Have a 0-38 record in them
SPEEDCACUS has this profile
EY UP ITS THE BOSS does too
HAYMAKER the other 3yo
Has topweight of 9st 12lbs
Similar races show
Horses aged 3
More than 4 runs
Absent over 16 days
Carrying 9st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-33 record in them
HAYMAKER fails this too
Think we want an older horse
Not the 9 year olds though
DARK SHORT makes no appeal
BOSSIPOP is also 9 years old
Ran a stinker last time as well
GOLDEN APOLLO is an 8yo
Far too risky drawn 12 of 12
Go back over 20 years
Ponterfract 6f handicaps
With under 13 runners
Horses drawn 12 are 0-24
None have won any race
No horse aged 6 or more
Won from either stall 11or 12
GOLDEN APOLLO rejected
CORINTHIAN KNIGHT is a 7yo
Not keen on his 50 day break
Similar races show
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 5 weeks
Carrying 8st 11lbs or more
Have a modest 1-53 record
That winner was down 2 grades
CORINTHIAN KNIGHT may pop up
Has a very good track record
But never won absent so long
And his profile is not strong
POCKLEY is up in grade
Do not see enough I liked
IBIZA ROCKS absent too long
Shortlist
IT JUST TAKES TIME
CHURCHILL BAY
COTTAM LANE
All of these 4 year olds
Represent different types
CHURCHILL BAY the improver
My angles are a bit sceptical
The unexposed 4yo's like him
Who bring recent runs into this
All won their previous race
CHURCHILL BAY was only 8th
He is the weakest profile of 3
IT JUST TAKES TIME differs
Offers fitness and momentum
Should have every chance
COTTAM LANE is riskier
Has yet to win in this grade
But 2 of his 3 best numbers
Came over course/distance
Including 3rd in last years race
He was 8th at Doncaster
The ground was against him
The draw did not help either
When his jockey got off him
She said a tongue tie would help
Today he has one for the 1st time
Split staking this race
Could bet all 3 of these
But going to drops one of them
As it allows me to go each way
Selection
4.00 Each Way COTTAM LANE 14/1 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
2.00 Win Bet IT JUST TAKES TIME 4/1