Today's Best Bet
Listowel 3.10
4.00 Each Way MACGILONEY 22/1
1.00 Each Way RIGGS 25/1-28/1
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Preview Selections
Goodwood 2.25
The Turpinator 14/1 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Redcar 2.53
Coverdale 4/1 Each Way
Listowel 3.10
4.00 Each Way Macgiloney 22/1
1.00 Each Way Riggs 33/1-28/1
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Listowel 4.20
5.00 Win Bet Gabbys Cross 9/1
4.00 Place Bet El Barra 6/4
1.00 Win Bet Rock Road 8/1 (Reserve)
Message
Kerry National Day
Big fields slowing me down
Settled on just 4 previews
3 Big priced bets
1 soft burglary bet
Tomorrow
Newmarket starts
Smallish fields there
But aiming for a bet
Get some momentum back
Had 2 many speculative bets
At big prices to lower strength
Need to change that now
Kerry National
Listowel 4.20
5.00 Win Bet GABBYS CROSS 9/1
4.00 Place Bet EL BARRA 6/4
1.00 Win Bet ROCK ROAD 8/1 (Reserve)
This is more than unsatisfactory
Rock Road was my first choice
A reserve runner he may not run
Think the reserves come out 11am
So I am assuming he doesn't run
If that happens it's 6 Win 4 Place
Goodwood 2.25
THE TURPINATOR 14/1 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
There is speculation here
Need all my angles to work
But at the prices I liked him
Redcar 2.53
COVERDALE 9/2-4/1 Each Way
Soft friendly looking maiden
But realistically can we get on
Weak market does not help
See this as a percentage bet
The best bet is speculative
But based on a theory
Supported by track angles
It's a little bit more than a fun bet
But these are huge prices
And have to be realistic here
Today's Best Bet
Listowel 3.10
4.00 Each Way MACGILONEY 22/1
1.00 Each Way RIGGS 33/1-28/1
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Yesterday's Summary
Ended up with 7 previews
One selection a non runner
Finished up L P L W L P P
May have been a bit kinder
Berry Edge finished second
Maybe I staked that wrongly
We had 3 money back races
Larusso one of those in 2nd
Went to Lingfield for my nap
Hey Ho Let's Go raced wide
Was not his fault to be fair
Saxon Village bumped him
Happened at the first turn
Forced him wide all the way
Could never get competitive
Suanni failed to get a place
Knew he was not too robust
But very surprised he didn't
Pleased with the last 2 races
Stakes back and both did ok
Was more of a practice day
Probably did too many races
We came out as a small loser
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Goodwood 2.25
7/2 Substantial, 9/2 Alazwar, 11/2 Percy's Lad
13/2 Red Mirage, 7/1 Shelir, 10/1 Stately Home
11/1 Via Serendipity, 12/1 Vafortino, 14/1 Enigmatic
20/1 The Turpinator, 25/1 Lunar Space, Trais Fluors.
Claiming Handicap 8f
Some of the issues in this
Just like the Golden Mile
High Numbers score badly
Go back to 2011
Goodwood
8f handicaps
Under 16 runners
Horses drawn 10 or higher
Absent more than 18 days
Have a 0-47 record in this
The draw puts me off these
SHELIR
SUBSTANTICAL
PERCY'S LAD
VAFORTINO is a 4yo
Nasty 74 day break considering
He also has a big weight as well
ALZAWAR is drawn 1
Better low than high for sure
He fails a strange statistic
Go back to 2006
Goodwood
Class 2 Handicaps
Run over 7f or more
With over 8 runners
Any time of the year
Horses aged 4
Under 10 career starts
Carrying 9st 2lbs or more
Have a 0-75 record in them
ALZAWAR has this profile
Only just fails this but he does
VIA SERENDIPIDITY an 8yo
Won last year but not for me
Without a recent run to help
Several with chances
ENIGMATIC is one
Has history won this in 2018
But he is an 8 year old now
RED MIRAGE is a 4yo
Up in trip and no 8f form
Despite that he makes it
THE TURPINATOR a 5yo
Ran well in the Golden Mile
Hampered from a bad draw
Having had 54 days break
Ran well here last time at 7f
None of these are faultless
Small bet at a decent price
Maybe the way to go here
Selection
THE TURPINATOR E/W 14/1 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Redcar 2.53
11/10 In These Shoes, 5/2 Good Gracious, 5/1 Coverdale
10/1 Sutue Alshams, 16/1 Barossa, 22/1 Hope To Dance
25/1 Burglar's Dream, 33/1 El Montejean, 100/1 Golden Firefly
100/1 The Follower.
2yo Maiden (7f)
Market likes 3 horses
It is 16/1 bar 3 horses
SUTUE ALSHAMS is unraced
Faces 3 experienced horses
May be too much for him
His trainers unraced 2yo's
Have a poor 1-80 record
Any of the front 3 can win
IN THESE SHOES is a filly
She sets the standard here
She should be going close
GOOD GRACIOUS can win
But needs to improve on figures
Looking at the market
COVERDALE each way
Looks an obvious option
There is substance to the bet
If you look at his sires record
He has never bred a winner
That was unraced over 7f +
So Haydock 7f on soft first time
Looks very excusable for him
The sire has yet to get a winner
That has won over a mile or more
He ran over a mile on his last run
The sire will get many milers win
But none have done this so far
COVERDALE may be well suited
But this drop down to a 7f race
Selection
COVERDALE 4/1 Each Way
Listowel 3.10
4/1 Shoot First, 9/2 Noble Birth, 5/1 Perceval Legallois
13/2 Wild Hunt, 12/1 Another Choice, 12/1 Chiricahua
14/1 Arabian King, 14/1 Bronson In Blue, Macgiloney
16/1 Balinaboola Steel, 20/1 Riggs, 20/1 Smitty Bacall
20/1 Sweet Street, 25/1 Mont Saint Vincent.
Handicap Hurdle 3m
Horses aged 5
Have a 0-23 record in this race
The records show otherwise
With a 5yo winner back in 2018
But he came 2nd and only won
As the winner got disqualified
Having failed a drug sample
July to December
Listwowel
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Horses aged 5
Absent more than 42 days
Have a 0-49 record in them
Opposing these 5 year olds
Who share this 0-49 profile
WILD HUNT
CHIRICAHUA
PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS
NOBLE BIRTH fails this too
He is a 5yo with 44 days off
We could forgive him that
But he fails this track angle
Listwowel
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year
Horses aged 5
More than 13 career starts
Absent more than just 5 days
Return a 0-60 record in them
NOBLE BIRTH fails this stat
CHIRICAHUA fails this too
Opposing horses aged 10 +
SMITTY BACALL is unsafe
BALINABOOLA STEEL wrong
Coming from a 2m 3f chase
MONT SAINT VINCENT is out
Lacks class for a long absence
Mares struggle in this race (0-18)
SWEET STREET a mare off 139 days
ARABIAN KING is a 6 year old
He's had just 1 career hurdle run
Tough ask on handicap debut
ANOTHER CHOICE is a 5yo
They are 0-23 in this handicap
Recent run but inexperienced
Can not match him to any winner
SHOOT FIRST is favourite
He only has 5 career runs
Horses with under 7 runs
Have a 0-31 record in this
He also comes from Galway
All 21 horses doing this lost
Go back to 2010
Listowel
Handicap Hurdles over 3m +
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses with under 7 runs
Have a poor 1-54 record
SHOOT FIRST has this profile
That winner (Abbey Glen)
Carried 23lbs less weight
Horses with under 6 runs
Have a 0-32 record in them
SHOOT FIRST fails this too
Shortlist
RIGGS 25/1-28/1
BRONSON IN BLUE 9/1
MACGILONEY 22/1
RIGGS is an outsider
Are there enough positives ?
Not sure but profile fine
Two runs ago he was 6th
Started 20/1 at Ballinrobe
BRONSON IN BLUE was 4th
He started favourite that day
Solid profile and well treated
He looks overpriced as well
He is not the biggest though
RIGGS ran equally as well there
He has come out and ran since
MACGILONEY has topweight
Do we want a big weight 9yo
Not sure but last time out
Outclassed in a better race
Had no chance at the weights
If you look at the weights
MACGILONEY rated 130
Faces only a 0-124 class field
If we get Shoot First beaten
Who lets face it is inexperienced
He only has a 0-123 class field
Then you get into 5 year olds
Who fail track angles as well
He could be very well placed
Selection
4.00 Each Way MACGILONEY 22/1
1.00 Each Way RIGGS 25/1-28/1
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Listowel 4.20
6/1 Hewick, 13/2 El Barra, 7/1 Busselton
15/2 Darasso, 8/1 Fire Attack, 9/1 Gabbys Cross
10/1 Cape Gentleman, 12/1 Hurricane Georgie
14/1 Early Doors, Recite A Prayer, 16/1 Embittered
20/1 A Wave Of The Sea, Gin On Lime, Jeremys Flame,
20/1 Ronald Pump, The Jam Man, 25/1 Discordantly
25/1 Freewheelin Dylan.
Kerry National
Graded Handicap Chase 3m
Sent some angles yesterday
Happy to oppose these horses
Freewheelin Dylan
Early Doors
Discordantly
Recite A Prayer
The Jam Man
Embittered
HEWICK runs off 163
The last 22 winners of this
Were all rated 148 or lower
Those rated higher are 0-18
The problem he has here
Not so much the 163 rating
It is the fact he is a 7yo
Go back to 2004
Graded handicap chases
Any distance
With 9 or more runners
Any time of the year
Horses under 8 years old
With more than 13 career runs
Absent more than 4 weeks
Running off a rating of 156 +
Have a 0-30 record in them
That tells me it is a lot to ask
For a horse younger than 8
HEWICK is therefore rejected
Not bothered about the others
Who race off higher than 148
HEWICK keeps the weights down
A WAVE OF THE SEA is a 6yo
Profile lacked enough positives
CAPE GENTLEMAN is a 6yo
Not safe coming from 2m 1f
RONALD PUMP is resistible
August September October
Graded Handicap Chases
Run over 2m 6f and more
With more than 8 runners
Horses aged 9 or more
Absent more than 30 days
Carrying 10st 11lbs or more
Have a 0-48 record so far
DARASSO fails this statistic
Not for me on that angle
BUSSELTON is a 5yo
HURRICANE GEORGIE a 5yo
No 5yo has won this recently
August September October
Graded Handicap Chases
Run over 2m 6f and more
With more than 8 runners
Horses aged 5
Have a 0-17 record in them
That is not a very good sign
BUSSELTON looks too risky
Graded Handicap Chases
Run over 2m 6f and more
With more than 8 runners
Any time of the season
No 5yo won any of them
With more than 9 chase runs
BUSSELTON has had 11 chases
And also fails this sire statistic
Mastercraftsman offspring
Running over 2m 5f or more
Running in Class 2 or higher
Have a 0-23 record so far
Those in Listed/Graded races
Are 0-29 over 2m 2f and more
BUSSELTON fails these angles
HURRICANE GEORGIE also a 5yo
May be the better of that age group
But she is still only a 5yo mare
Graded handicap chases
Any distance
Any time of year
With 7 or more runners
Mares aged 5 are 1-16
The only horse managing it
HURRICANE GEORGIE herself
When winning here in July
She is 11lbs higher today
She has twice the absence too
Might win but she is not safe
Will need a career best to win
Over distance she's never tried
GIN ON LIME is a 6yo mare
Just the sole run in 117 days
Not proven over the distance
TULLYBEG is a reserve
Outside chance if he gets in
He has no handicap form
But plenty of Novice runs
Light weight from a top yard
But may be too competitive
FIRE ATTACK fell at Galway
Twice failed to finish a chase
From only 6 chase races
That is not a dealbreaker
But he is short on experience
He'd be the lightest chaser
To win this for several years
EL BARRA is rated 153
Horses rated 149 or more
Have a 0-18 record in this
Do not mind that problem
Hewitt is rated 10lbs higher
Pushes the weighs down
EL BARRA has 11st 2lbs
Lightly raced with 6 chases
He could improve past these
But only has 12 career runs
No winners had under 14
And he fails this statistic
Go back to 2010
August September October
Graded handicap chases
Run over 2m 6f and more
Horses aged 8 or more
Under 15 career starts
Return a weak 0-54 record
EL BARRA shares this profile
Plenty of 54 were not fancied
I still think Hewicks presence
Helps him with a lower weight
He could be a place bet option
GABBYS CROSS is a 7yo
Won at Galway 8 weeks ago
That was the Blazers chase
No past winner ran in that
All ran in Galway's plate
Will need a career best to win
But most of these will anyway
He is a late maturing improver
Like him more win than place
ROCK ROAD is a dilemma
He is a reserve runner
Could rule him out aged 10
But he is very unexposed
And has been improving
No negative from Mullins
If he runs he'd be my bet
Going to split stake
Not keen on an each way option
Selection
5.00 Win Bet GABBYS CROSS 9/1
4.00 Place Bet EL BARRA 6/4
1.00 Win Bet ROCK ROAD 8/1 (Reserve)
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Saturday
Cambridgeshire Handicap
Statistics below
Been a lethal race recently
40/1 winner in 2021
40/1 winner in 2020
50/1 winner in 2017
William Haggas
Trains the market leaders
Mujtaba 5/1
Protagonist 10/1
They both fail this angle
Go back 22 years (2000)
Horses aged 4 or more
Winning last time out
Have a poor 0-69 record
One of many considerations
Great historical handicap
Angles below if interested
Ante Post Statistics
Saturday
Newmarket 3.40
Cambridgeshire Handicap
Mujtaba 5/1 Protagonist 7/1 Atrium 10/1
Savvy Victory 10/1 Totally Charming 10/1 Dual Identity 12/1
Jimi Hendrix 12/1 Kitsune Power 12/1 First View 14/1
Montassib 14/1 Al Marmar 16/1 Electrical Storm 16/1
Injazati 16/1 Arqoob 20/1 Bell Rock 20/1 Postwick 20/1
Brilliant Light 20/1 Arthur's Realm 25/1 Lucander 25/1
Forest Falcon 25/1 Good Birthday 25/1 Lawful Command 25/1
Magical Morning 25/1 Majestic Dawn 25/1 Caradoc 25/1
Night Of Luxury 25/1 Rebel Territory 25/1 Majestic 33/1
Carolus Magnus 33/1 Dutch Decoy 33/1 Ouzo 33/1
Perotto 33/1 Raising Sand 33/1 Asgoodassobergets 50/1
Austrian Theory 50/1 Fast Medicine 50/1 Spirit Catcher 50/1
Notre Belle Bete 50/1 Coase 66/1 Lightening Company 66/1
Geremia 66/1 Pistoletto 66/1 Whitefeathersfall 66/1
Yaaser 66/1
10 of the last 11 winners
Shared the following profile
Male Horses
Aged 3-4-5-6
Running within 100 days
8st 4lbs to 9st 9lbs
Between 5 and 26 runs
Beaten under 6 lengths last time
Rated between 87 and 107
Coming from 8f to 10f
Coming from Class 3 or higher
Past renewals since 2001
Horses with 27 + runs are 0-134
Horses with 24 + runs
Absent over 2 days are 1-164
Horses with 22 + runs
Absent over 2 weeks are 1-125
Horses with 18 + runs
Aged 3 are 0-4
Aged 4 are 0-79
Aged 7 + are 0-63
Horses from pattern races
Have a miserable 1-187 record
Only the 2013 winner managed it
Horses from 12f or more
Have a 0-29 record since 1997
No from Class 4 or lower
Have a 0-40 record since 1997
Recent winners
Had these runs that year
4 4 3 6 6 8 7 4 5 7 4
Avoid those with just 1-2 runs
Horses aged 3
With over 6 runs are 4-101
Those with 1 run in 2 months
Have a 0-27 record in this
Horses who last time out
Lost by 6 or more lengths
Have a 2-250 record since 1997
Horses with 9st 6lbs or more
Have a 1-50 record since 1997
The following horses fail this
Horses with over 14 runs
Absent more than 49 days
Have a 0-53 record in this
Go back to 1998
Horses with under 5 runs are 1-26
Horses with under 4 runs are 0-11
15 of the last 16 winners
Were all rated 91 of higher
3 Year olds won this 7 times
They all had 4-12 career runs
None had listed or group form
Most had 8st 12lbs or less
Those with more were 1-46
The last 6 winners
All had higher draws
Winning from 21 25 29 21 29 28
But horses drawn 30 or higher
Have a poor record in any race
Past renewals since 2011
When the stalls renumbered
Horses drawn in stalls 10 to 18
Have a winless 0-99 record
Horses aged 5
Won 4 past renewals
They won off 87 91 104 99
They all ran within 37 days
ll had 18-26 career starts
Horses aged 4
Won 9 renewals since 1997
All had 8st 7lbs-9st 9lbs
They all had 4-17 runs
Horses aged 5 or older
With under 15 career races
Have a 0-63 record in this
Horses aged 4 or more
Winning last time out
Have a poor 2-79 record
Both absent over 80 days
They are 0-69 since 2000
Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 0-95 record since 1997
Horses winning last time
Running in the last 20 days
Have a 0-38 record in this
Those winning last time
Running in the last 45 days
Have a poor 1-101 record
Nice picks in the 3:10 yesterday John. 25/1 winner & 20/1 3rd. Tricast was possible there as 2nd fav was 2nd Paying £1800+. 👍