Preview Selections
Beverley 1.42
8.00 Win Bet Berry Edge 4/1
2.00 Win Bet Miss Clementine 4/1
Warwick 1.50
Larusso 4/1
Each Way
Listowel 2.00
Skontonovski 8/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Beverley 2.17
Cite d'Or 11/10-5/4
Win Bet
Beverley 2.52
Havana By The Sea 5/2
Each Way
Lingfield 3.55
5 Win - Hey Ho Let's Go 10/1
5 Place - Suanni 1/1-11/10
Beverley 4.37
2.50 Each Way Crown Princess 14/1-16/1
5.00 Place Bet Qipao 1/1-11/10
Beverley 5.10
Motarajel 7/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Today's Message
Today's Best Bet
Split Stakes
Lingfield 3.55
5.00 Win Bet HEY HO LETS GO 10/1
5.00 Place Bet SUANNI 10/11-1/1
First message of the week
Cambridgeshire on Saturday
Covering that race tomorrow
Kerry National tomorrow
Some early thoughts below
This is a practice message
Bit worried with 8 previews
May be a bit too ambitious
Small stakes the suggestion
The thought of my best bet
Running at Lingfield over 5f
Does leave me freezing cold
Lingfield 3.55
I have this between 2 horses
SUANNI 4/1
HEY HO LETS GO 10/1
SUANNI will probably win it
Legitimate best bet each way
I had that penciled in earlier
Does not look the sort of horse
To go through a brick wall for us
Not too sure how genuine he is
Maybe throwing a winner away
But going to stake it differently
Got a big decision tomorrow
With the Kerry Grand National
Don't want to make many today
Today's Best Bet
Lingfield 3.55
5.00 Win Bet HEY HO LETS GO 10/1
5.00 Place Bet SUANNI 10/11-1/1
Underneath The Message
Most races
Small stakes interest bets
Wont be doing much today
Big fields in play tomorrow
The Kerry National a priority
Lingfield 3.55
5 Win - Hey Ho Let's Go 10/1
5 Place - Suanni 10/11-1/1-11/10
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Beverley 1.42
4/1 Dandy's Angel, 9/2 Berry Edge, 9/2 Peripeteia
11/2 Miss Clementine, She's Got Bottle, 14/1 Hooflepuff
14/1 Hopeman Harbour, Ruby Port, 16/1 French Romance
16/1 Tromso, 20/1 Victory March, 50/1 Gloryella.
10f Handicap (Apprentices)
No past renewals
Beverley 10f handicaps
With under 13 runners
Going back to 2011
Show horses aged 5 or more
Drawn in stall 10 or higher
Have a 0-64 record in them
DANDY'S ANGEL fails this angle
Drawn 12 from a poor stable
Some look underraced
HOOTLEPUZZ 1 run in 7 months
MISS CLEMENTINE is a 3yo filly
She has ran just once in 80 days
I'd prefer 2 or more recent runs
At least in the last 6 weeks or so
RUBY PORT does not offer that
HOPEMAN HARBOUR does not
The bottomweights look wrong
Scoring consistently poor figures
FRENCH ROMANCE has 3 runs
Not a negative but inexperienced
He will do very well to win this
PERIPETEIA
She has plenty of positives
Even allowing for drawn in 11
Not sure if this will work out
It should be interesting to see
Going back to 2011
Beverley 10f handicaps
Any class
Any time of year
Fillies aged 4 or older
Absent more than 10 days
Drawn in stall 7 or higher
Have a miserable 1-107 record
PERIPETEIA fails this statistic
Having 3 weeks off and stall 11
SHE'S GOT BOTTLE is an option
Dislike that she is up in distance
May be held up from a high draw
Not convinced I can trust that
But her profile is not a problem
BERRY EDGE
Been running in better races
If we can beat Hooflepuff 20/1
He only has a 0-56 to cope with
He's been running in 0-77 races
Stall 1 may or may not help
He does have topweight as well
I'd have liked more recent runs
But feel he has to be on staking
If you factor in other negatives
Going win bet and saver here
Selection
8.00 Win Bet BERRY EDGE 4/1
2.00 Win Bet MISS CLEMENTINE 4/1
Warwick 1.50
7/4 Sophosc, 3/1 Allbetsoff, 9/2 Cornicello
5/1 Larusso, 10/1 Son Of Aliciaslady, 12/1 Gone In Sixty
20/1 Ince, 33/1 Horse Power, 100/1 Charlie My Boy
100/1 Great Ridley.
Novice Hurdle 2m
Several have decent chances
SOPHOSC had a hurdle run last May
But comes here winning on the flat
Won a 1m 3f race just 12 days ago
I did not like that preparation myself
But my statistics pass him as fine
CORNICELLO is a 4yo off 180 days
Feels unsafe but my angles say fine
ALLBETSOFF could easily win this
But fell in a handicap last time out
LARUSSO won a novice last time
That is usually a safe preparation
Could be a sensible bet each way
Selection
LARUSSO 4/1 Each Way
Listowel 2.00
5/1 Rose Of Malta, 11/2 Angel's Trumpet, 7/1 Golden Days
7/1 Super Cub, 8/1 The Dazzer, 10/1 Praying Mantis
12/1 Skontonovski, 14/1 Ask Delaney, 14/1 Conversant
14/1 Hot Bell, 16/1 Navorrosse, Nyla Rua, 20/1 Silent Performance
20/1 Unexpected Arrival, 25/1 Warp Speed.
7f handicap
Wide open
The 2020 winner was a 3yo
But he had a very recent run
And it went against the norm
September
Listowel 7f handicaps
22 of these races run
Horses aged 3
Have a poor 1-54 record
The only winner ran 2 days ago
Going to oppose these 3yo's
8/1 The Dazzer
20/1 Unexpected Arrival
12/1 Nyla Rua
7/1 Super Cub
5/1 Rose Of Malta
Horses aged 4-5-6 dominate
In the same 22 races here
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 6 days
Have a winless 0-37 record
Against the older horses
Taking out the underraced
GOLDEN DAYS might be one
A filly with 1 run in 104 days
The following are underraced
20/1 Silent Performance
14/1 Ask Delaney
14/1 Hot Bell
25/1 Warp Speed
PRAYING MANTIS is respected
But recently sold and downgraded
NAVORROSSE is scoring badly
ANGEL'S TRUMPET has a chance
SKONTONOVSKI
Drops down from a mile
He stays a mile on sand
But his turf form over 8f
Has so far looked weak
Unplaced in all 9 races
His 3 career best figures
Came on grass over 7f
Stall 1 is a neutral draw
Felt he ran ok last time
Avoids statistical flaws
Felt he had a chance
In what is an open race
He certainly does if 3yo's
Are as weak as suggested
Selection
SKONTONOVSKI 8/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Beverley 2.17
6/4 Cite d'Or, 7/2 Khinjani, 7/2 Silk Bird
9/2 Montevideo, 10/1 Mythical World
33/1 Musical Gift.
Fillies Novice 2 year olds over an extended 8f
I was shocked to discover
The last 2yo race at Beverley
Over a mile or more was 2016
This is the first one since then
If you look at those races run
That were between 2004 -2016
You find unraced horses 0-28
That's the issue here
KHINJANI is unraced
MONTEVIDEO is unraced
In a small field either may win
At this track I prefer experience
SILK BIRD has a run behind her
CITE D'OR offers us 3 runs now
Best figures he is my choice
Selection
CITE D'OR 11/10-5/4
Win Bet
Beverley 2.52
2/1 Squealer, 5/2 Havana By The Sea, 5/1 Zuffolo
6/1 Miss Brazen, 10/1 Brooklyn Nine Nine, 14/1 Smooch
16/1 Bedazzling, 33/1 Sling Yer Hook, The Spinmeister
50/1 Amazing Arthur, 66/1 Maryculter.
2yo Novice 5f
The 5 previous winners
Had 4 6 2 2 4 previous runs
I would want at least 2 runs
That does not help us much
Should be between 4
All 4 of these are penalised
MSS BRAZEN has 2 penalties
And has 53 days off the track
ZUFFOLO has 143 days break
SQUEALER has the best form
Best figures most likely winner
But he does have a poor draw
Unpalatable as it might be
Would play the race this way
Selection
HAVANA BY THE SEA 5/2 Each Way
Lingfield 3.55
9/4 Saxon Village, 4/1 Suanni, 9/2 Street Parade
9/1 Bobby On The Beat, 9/1 Hey Ho Let's Go, 9/1 Shawaag
10/1 Howzak, 12/1 Dream Game, 16/1 Anificas Beauty
25/1 Stake Acclaim.
5f Handicap
Some of these
Look short of runs
Not something I'd want here
STAKE ACCLAIM is a 10yo
Not had enough recent runs
HOWZAK has 1 run in months
DREAM GAME the same issue
She is an older 5 year old mare
Who's raced once in 201 days
She is unexposed which helps
But stable have had 2 winners
The bad outweighs the good
SHAWAAG is inexperienced
The recent run may not help
I'd want at least 2 races
Since August or later over 5f
BOBBY ON THE BEAT does not
ANIIFICAS BEAUTY does not
SAXON VILLAGE has 3 runs
Not for me with a big weight
Having no 5f form whatsoever
STREET PARADE is a 6yo
I'd have liked a shorter absence
Shortlist
SUANNI 4/1
HEY HO LET'S GO 10/1
SUANNI Should win this
Fittest profile by some way
But he is only a modest type
Expecting his fitness
To carry him into the 1-2-3
Not sure how hard he will fight
The only other positive
HEY HO LET'S GO is a 6yo
He's raced once in 57 days
Not ruled out but not ideal
But he has won at Newbury
Few of these could do that
He was outclassed at Warwick
In two grades higher than this
Ran well at Brighton last time
Made the running got headed
But them fought back quite well
When entitled to have needed it
He'd raced once in 67 days there
Twice won over the 5f trip here
Going to play it this way
Selection
5.00 Win Bet HEY HO LET'S GO 10/1
5.00 Place Bet SUANNI 10/11-1/1-11/10
Beverley 4.37
5/2 Autumn Festival, 4/1 Tollard Royal, 5/1 Qipao
11/2 Outsmart, 9/1 Makeen, 12/1 El Bello
14/1 Crown Princess, My Little Tip, 20/1 Kind Review
25/1 Homer Stokes, Like A Lion.
7f Handicap
Bit complicated
The topweight is a non runner
TOLLARD ROYAL new topweight
In the past renewals of this race
High weights have struggled
Horses with 9st 6lbs or more
Have a 1-38 record in this race
TOLLARD ROYAL fails this stat
MAKEEN has 9st 11lbs weight
Combined with 52 days absence
MY LITTLE TIP has 9st 10lbs
AUTUMN FESTIVAL has 9st 10lbs
In great form and must go well
But his weight is not a positive
He is also going up in class today
Open minded but on balance
Going with a lighter weight
LIKE A LION an unfit profile
EL BELLO has a nasty draw
KIND REVIEW running too flat
HOMER STROKES is beatable
OUTSMART has a chance
If stall 11 does not compromise
QIPQAO is respected
CROWN PRINCESS at 14/1-16/1
Does look a bit over priced
Small Stake race
Going this way
Selection
Small Stakes
£2.50 Each Way CROWN PRINCESS 14/1-16/1
£5.00 Place Bet QIPQAO 1/1-11/10
Beverley 5.10
4/1 Zumurud, 5/1 Bearwith, 7/1 Captain Corelli
7/1 Motarajel, 9/1 Available Angel, 10/1 Dogged
11/1 Girl Inthe Picture, Harry Love, 14/1 Contrast
16/1 Fifty Sent, Sun Rising, 18/1 Selfish Brian
22/1 Stripzee, 25/1 Captain St Lucifer
33/1 Big Muddy.
8f Handicap
Deep field
Go back to 2011
The stalls renumbered
Beverley 8f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 4 or more
Drawn 14 or higher
Had a 0-19 record
The following fail this
AVAILABLE ANGEL
DOGGED
ZUMURUD
Horses aged 5 or more
Drawn 12 or higher
Had a 0-28 record
ZUMURUD fails this too
Against the lightweights
None of them scoring well
FIFTY SENT doesn't offer enough
CONTRAST absent far too long
HARRY LOVE is up in distance
Just missed out on this shortlist
4/1 Bearwith
5/1 Captain Corelli
7/1 Motarajel,
10/1 Girl Inthe Picture
CAPTAIN CORELLI has 10st
Tough weight to carry statistically
GIRL IN THE PICTURE is a filly
Month off and a weak stable
BEARWITH could easily win
MOTARAJEL got the decision
I'd argue the fittest profile
Selection
MOTARAJEL 7/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Tomorrow
Kerry National
Few early thoughts below
Saturday
Cambridgeshire Handicap
Will cover this race tomorrow
Kerry National
Graded Handicap Chase 3m
11/2 El Barra 6/1 Hewick , 7/1 Rock Road
8/1 Busselton 11/1 Hurricane Georgie
12/1 Darasso 12/1 Gabbys Cross 12/1 Cape Gentleman
12/1 Fire Attack 14/1 Tullybeg 16/1 Early Doors
16/1 Ronald Pump 16/1 Jeremys Flame 16/1 A Wave Of The Sea
16/1 Recite A Prayer 20/1 Gin On Lime 33/1 The Jam Man
33/1 Discordantly 33/1 Embittered 50/1 Bacardys
50/1 Freewheelin Dylan
Age of winners
Since 2004
8 7 8 7 7 7 11 9 9
7 6 8 8 7 7 7 6 8
Horses aged 7-8
Have dominate lately
Horses aged 9 or more
Have a weak 3-148 record
All 3 had under 10st 5lbs
All 3 ran within 20 days
Horses aged 9 or older
Absent over 20 days
Return a 0-114 record
The following horses fail this
12/1 Darasso
16/1 Ronald Pump
16/1 Early Doors
33/1 Freewheelin Dylan
33/1 Bacardys
Horses aged 9 or older
Carrying 10st 5lbs or more
Return a poor 0-90 record
The following horses fail this
12/1 Darasso
16/1 Ronald Pump
16/1 Early Doors
25/1 The Jam Man
Official ratings of winners
147 142 138 148 128 133 126 130
117 148 137 140 135 127 127 133
126 117 130 123 111 128
The last 22 winners of this
Were all rated 148 or lower
The following horses fail this
Hewick rated 163
El Barra rated 163
Darasso rated 152
Cape Gentleman rated 151
A Wave Of The Sea rated 149
Ronald Pump rated 149
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a 2-87 record since 1992
Have a 1-84 record since 1997
The following fail this angle
33/1 Bacardys
33/1 Freewheelin Dylan
7/1 Rock Road
Past winners absences
56 56 42 42 38 3 20
19 19 46 17 48 24 19
The previous 14 winners of this
Raced within the last 8 weeks
The following are not a match
16/1 Early Doors
16/1 Recite A Prayer
Past winners
Had the following Chase runs
7 14 6 7 8 6 21 26 11 12 13 10
6 13 8 11 5 5 26 39 17 4 6 8 8
Horses with 5-14 Chase runs
Won 16 of the last 18 renewals
Horses with 18 or more chases
Look too exposed for comfort
The following horses fail this
33/1 Freewheelin Dylan
25/1 Discordantly
Past winners
Had these lifetime starts
14 20 21 35 14 20 27 51
20 27 24 19 21 37 29
None past winners
Had under 14 career starts
Fire Attack has 13 runs
Recite A Prayer 13 runs
El Barra has 12 runs
Yet to be ruled out
But several of them will be
7/1 Busselton
10/1 Hurricane Georgie
12/1 Fire Attack
12/1 Gabbys Cross
14/1 Tullybeg
16/1 Jeremys Flame
20/1 Embittered