Today's Best Bet
Newbury 4.03
6.00 Win Bet TACARIB BAY 7/1-13/2
4.00 Win Bet SACRED 11/10
Preview Selections Ayr 1.25 Misty Blues 5/1 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Ayr 2.00
Prairie Falcon 5/2-9/4
Win Bet
Ayr 2.35
4.00 Win Bet Union Court 9/1
4.00 Win Bet Bolt Action 6/4
2.00 Win Bet Kerindia 4/1
Ayr 3.10
5.00 Win Mo Celita 8/1
4.00 Win Gale Force Maya 13/8 -7/4
1.00 Win Bet Alia Choice 10/1
Ayr 3.45
2.50 Each Way Tipperary Tiger 14/1
2.50 Each Way Monsieur Kodi 14/1
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5-6
Newbury 4.03
6.00 Win Bet Tacarib Bay 7/1-13/2
4.00 Win Bet Sacred 5/4
Newbury 4.35
9.00 Win Bet Mahrajaan 9/4-5/2
1.00 Win Bet Moktasaab 7/1-8/1
Today's Message
Calmer message today
Toned it down a little
7 Previews
3 of these do tempt me
The rest are small stakes
Unnecessary just playful
3 Stronger Options
Ayr 1.25 MISTY BLUES 5/1 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Ayr 2.00
PRARIE FALCON 5/2-9/4
Win Bet
Newbury 4.03
6.00 Win Bet TACARIB BAY 7/1-13/2
4.00 Win Bet SACRED 5/4
My Personal favourite bet
Ayr 2.00
Prairie Falcon 5/2-9/4
Each Way
That is my own strategy
To go each way not win only
But not everyone likes that
So happy to keep this simple
And make him a win bet only
Today's Best Bet
Newbury 4.03
6.00 Win Bet TACARIB BAY 7/1-13/2
4.00 Win Bet SACRED 11/10
Underneath The Message
Ayr 1.25
Misty Blues 5/1
20 Win Bet
I am going win only
Hardest of the three
If she repeats last week
She wont be unplaced
But that is not guaranteed
If this comes a bit too soon
Happy with the 20 quid bet
I do think with the 4 places
It is better to go each way
But I like to win if I'm wrong
And enjoy losing if I'm right
It's complicated to explain
But it's about confidence
Ayr 2.00
Prairie Falcon 5/2-9/4
30 Each Way
Prefer him each way myself
My only fear is starting slowly
Finding the 6f and little sharp
And having to play catch up
But there are positives as well
Fittest horse could hack up
Newbury 4.03
Win Bet Tacarib Bay 7/1-8/1
Win Bet Sacred 11/10
Strange one this
Market loves my saver Sacred
I am not that warm about him
He is only there as class cover
Because there are 7 runners
Market hates Tacarib Bay
Shame as I really like him
Don't care if the saver wins
As it will save the best bet
Dam annoying anyway
Sacred is 11/10 from 6/4
Cut in last 10 minutes
Messed up the staking plan
Going to have a win bet
Happy to accept as usual
The market may know more
I could be overrating him
Personal Stake
20 Win Bet Tacarib Bay 7/1-8/1
Next Few Days
Just the short term plan
While I hope to work out
Just how much surgery
Parts of the message need
Only the top half is wrong
Happy with the bottom part
Messages Saturday + Sunday
Sunday night is planned out
Previewing the Kerry National
Which is for next Wednesday
Monday
Queen's funeral so no racing
I could yet do a message
Which would a be FBA column
And the Kerry Grand National
Tuesday to Sunday
Expecting messages each day
Week on Monday (26th) day off
Yesterday's Summary
It was quite a hectic message
Slugging away like a bar fight
Took our fair share of blows
But landed a few punches too
Baltic Voyage started off badly
But hit back with a big winner
The first in a run of 5 previews
Where we did not have a loser
So we were well ahead by them
Lost the next 2 not unexpected
Overhaugh Street one of them
He ran well given he was 20/1
He would have finished closer
If his jockey have ridden better
But not enough to get a place
Bit over ambitious as best bet
Give It Some Teddy came in 5th
Some took 5 places others didn't
Overall was not much in the day
Given the field sizes no disaster
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Ayr 1.25
5/1 Day Member, 6/1 Transfer Affection, 13/2 Misty Blues
8/1 Greycious Anna, Pureness, 9/1 Claretina, 10/1 Granny B
11/1 Caernarfon, Ibiza Love, 12/1 Lady Lavina, Snow Girl
14/1 Iato's Angel, 16/1 Platinum Girl.
7f Fillies Nursery
No past renewals
Could have done with some
As these races are very rare
DAY MEMBER has sexy connections
She is probably priced up on those
Have to question her class so far
She is only 10th in the weights
Unplaced in a 0-70 nursery last time
This is much harder lots to prove
IBIZA LOVE is from a pattern race
Probably not the path to be taking
LADY LAVINIA the highest draw
GRANNY B looks opposable as well
Going up in class and distance
PLATINUM GIRL is the lowest rated
PURENESS was quite expensive
She is the joint least experienced
She has the longest absence too
She may pop up but 2 months off
There are sharper horses to beat
In a big field happy to avoid her
GREYCIOUS ANNA has 3 races
No objections I would prefer more
MISTY BLUES
Experienced
Finished 3rd only 8 days ago
Doncaster's fillies nursery
Has momentum and fitness
Shortlistable at bare minimum
Hope this does not come too soon
There are several dangers
TRANSFER AFFECTION is one
Not sure if she wants this trip drop
Needed past renewals to show us
How horses down in class get on
How higher weighted horses did
MISTY BLUES is in that category
But we can not know that evidence
But if she repeats her run last week
You would expect minimum a place
That was a 50 grand race last week
This is barely a 15 grand race today
Main danger is this coming too soon
Selection
MISTY BLUES 5/1 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Ayr 2.00
3/1 Prairie Falcon, 7/2 Ramazan, 6/1 Reward Smile
8/1 Jm Jungle, Premier Option, 9/1 Braveheart Boy
10/1 Don't Fight It, Shandy Star, 12/1 Flying Barty
25/1 Honour Your Dreams.
6f Nursery (Class 2)
This race upgraded 8 years ago
No past winner had over 7 races
Either before or after the upgrade
September
6f Nurseries
Class 2-3 races
Horses with over 7 runs
Have a 0-34 record in them
Hope this statistic holds
As opposing these horses
DON'T FIGHT IT
HONOUR YOUR DREAM
JM JUNGLE
SHANDY STAR
FLYING BARTY the bottomweight
Looks very beatable on the figures
Do we go for the class horse ?
RAMAZAM is topweight 9st 9lbs
13 past renewals
Horses with 9st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-25 record in this race
That does not support his chance
Neither does 30 days absence
Most past winners ran recently
Horses absent over 24 days
Have a modest 2-61 record in this
Those from class 3 or higher
Have a 0-36 record off that long
RAMAZAM fails these angles
BRAVEHEART BOY does as well
REWARD SMILE has a chance
But just 1 run in the last 93 days
Not something I'd want to risk
With just 3 runs and 9st 13lbs too
PREMIER OPTION might win
But the only horse up in distance
Not keen on profile but not ruled out
As he probably well handicapped
PRARIE FALCON
Ran 3 days ago
Unlucky in a 7f nursery
Does he have a fitness edge?
I would say it probably does
More relaxed about the drop in trip
As the 2013 and 2016 winners
Both dropped down from 7f
Both ran with very recent runs
His change may depend
On how he copes with he 6f
He has sometimes started slowly
There are a few question marks
But the positives trump the doubts
Could be the best bet on the card
Selection
PRARIE FALCON 5/2-9/4
Win Bet
Ayr 2.35
2/1 Bolt Action, 7/2 Kerindia, 11/2 Prince Of Pillo
7/1 Union Court, 11/1 Looking For Lynda
12/1 Seantrabh, 16/1 New Definition
18/1 Thunder Moor, 20/1 Can To Can
20/1 Miss Attitude, 20/1 Remarkable Force.
Harry Rosebery Stakes
5f Listed race for (2yo)
BOLT ACTION is top rated
Has an edge of the numbers
Well drawn looks shortlistable
He is a male horse though
Fillies have done much better
Winning 7 of the last 8 renewals
PRINCE OF PILLO is a male
His profile worries me a lot
Having just 3 career starts
Running only 5 days ago
He is the least experienced
Dislike inexperienced horses
Having very recent races
Go back to 1997
2 year old pattern races
Any time of year
Any distance
Horses with under 4 runs
Beaten last time
Running within 7 days
Have a 0-48 record in them
PRINCE OF PILLO fails this
He's hardly well drawn in 10
LOOKING FOR LYNDA a colt
Has the widest draw to cope with
Horses drawn 4-9
Would be in the best range here
Horses with under 6 runs
Drawn in stalls 1-2-3-4
Have a 0-39 record in this
CAN TO CAN has this problem
THUNDER MOOR does as well
The best strategy here
Would be an experienced filly
MISS ATTITIDE does fit that
But rated 81 looks far too low
KERINDIA is a filly
Shortlisted because of that
But only 4 career runs so far
The last of which was in France
Makes her hard to nail down
UNION COURT is an option
She is an experienced filly
That profile does deliver in this
Not sure I'd trust her each way
Going to save on the class horse
And add a second saver as well
Strange staking
But we get 3/1 Union Court
Cash back if favourite wins
Cash back if second fav wins
Selection
4.00 Win Bet UNION COURT 9/1
4.00 Win Bet BOLT ACTION 6/4
2.00 Win Bet KERINDIA 4/1
Ayr 3.10
7/4 Gale Force Maya, 7/1 Mo Celita
9/1 My Eyes Adore You, 10/1 Pink Crystal
10/1 Tippy Toes, 12/1 Barbanera, 12/1 Sandbeck
12/1 Tenaya Canyon, 16/1 Sablonne, 20/1 Alia Choice
20/1 Tardis, 25/1 Corazon, Guilded, 28/1 Illustrating
33/1 Lullaby Bay, Sound Of Iona, 66/1 Miss Nay Never
100/1 Ventura Flame.
5f Listed race (Fillies)
Official ratings show
GALE FORCE MAYA is the best
She is rated 5lbs clear of these
But she is drawn in stall 16 here
With a recent run on her side
She cannot be a negative
Go back to 2001
Ayr 5f races
Run in class 4 or higher
Horses drawn 13 or higher
Absent over 14 days
Have a 0-60 record in them
The following all fail this
ILLUSTRATING
CORAZON
SANDBECK
GALE FORCE MAYA survives this
As she does have that recent race
But it is still not the best of draws
She looks more suitable as a saver
Finding the main selection
Looks a needle in a haystack job
Not a race to spend much time on
ALIA CHOICE had excuses last time
Nasty draw in the Beverley bullet
Needs to improve but was doing
At the price a fair return to small stakes
MO CELITA offers the fittest profile
Going to add her to the staking plan
Selection
5.00 Win MO CELITA 8/1
4.00 Win GALE FORCE MAYA 13/8-7/4
1.00 Win Bet ALIA CHOICE 10/1
Ayr 3.45
7/1 Music Society, 8/1 Never Dark, 9/1 Grantley Hall
9/1 Mattice, 10/1 Beltane, 10/1 Vince Lombardi
14/1 Admirality, Beattie Is Back, Monsieur Kodi
16/1 Intervention, Le Beau Garcon, The Thin Blue Line
16/1 Tipperary Tiger, 20/1 Danzan, Fast And Loose
20/1 Summer Sands, 20/1 Tothenines, 25/1 Ballyare
25/1 Black Friday, Chookie Dunedin, Jordan Electrics
25/1 Late Arrival, Showtime Mahomes, 40/1 Monica
40/1 Secretinthepark.
Bronze Cup
Minimum stakes here
Big preview is a waste of time
NEVER DARK ran yesterday
So did the 2013 winner of this
But he was dropping in trip
NEVER DARK is up in distance
Win lose or draw that is risky
Looked at past 3yo winners
They all came from 6f races
They all ran within 2 weeks
All ran strong races last time
I'd against any who fail this
It includes these rejections
9/1 Mattice 16/1 Le Beau Garcon 25/1 Showtime Mahomes 20/1 Tothenines
40/1 Beattie Is Back 9/1 Grantley Hall 40/1 Monica 10/1 Beltane20/1 Fast And Loose
20/1 Vince Lombardi
Against older horses
Especially with no recent runs
ADMIRALITY may be well treated
But an 8yo with over 6 weeks off
Does not tempt me in a huge field
MUSIC SOCIETY is favourite
Do we want a 7 year old in this ?
Last week I found a statistic
That worked out in the Portland
August to November
All class 2 Handicaps
Run between 5f and 9f
With over 10 runners
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 2 weeks
Carrying 9st 6lbs or more
Have a poor 0-197 record
MUSIC SOCIETY fails this angle
So I have to take a negative view
Horses failing this 0-197 statistic
BLACK FRIDAY
MUSIC SOCIETY
DANZAN
Intervention was considered
But 0-24 in this class and higher
Decided he lacked positives
Shortlist /Selection
2.50 Each Way TIPPERARY TIGER 14/1
2.50 Each Way MONSIEUR KODI 14/1
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5-6
Newbury 4.03
7/4 Sacred, 4/1 Jumby
4/1 Shine So Bright 9/2 Tacarib Bay, 6/1 Saleymm
20/1 Heat Of The Moment, 66/1 Siamsa
Dubai Duty Free Cup Listed race (7f) Only 7 runners
SIAMSA looks outclassed
HEAT OF THE MOMENT underaced
All past 3 year old winners of this
Had far more recent runs than him
SHINE SO BRIGHT is a 6yo
He faces 124 days off the track
Past renewals show us
Horses with over 9 runs
Absent over 36 days
Have a 0-29 record since 1997
SHINE SO BRIGHT fails this
Horses aged 4
Have won this race 6 times
They all had under 11 runs
Horses aged 4
Over 10 career starts
Have a 0-36 record in this
The following fail this
JUMBY 17 runs
SALEYMM 12 runs
SACRED 11 runs
Would not rule any out
JUMBY does look exposed
Horses with over 12 races
Absent more than 20 days
Have a 1-43 record since 1997
Those from 7f or less are 0-35
Those aged under 5 and 0-21
JUMBY fails both angles
SACRED is a 4yo filly
Not matchable to a past winner
But she is the class horse in this
I opposed her last time at York
Taking on fitter male horses
Having raced twice in a year
She now has 3 runs in 13 months
Really don't know if thats enough
TACARIB BAY is a 3yo
Ran well at Goodwood recently
Trying to win a handicap off 106
Statistically highly improbable
Decent second in a Group race
Last time 2nd when 2nd favourite
He has a nice solid profile
Horses aged 3
Dropping from a mile
Between 5 and 12 runs
Running within 52 days
Beaten under 7 lengths
2 or more recent races
Have a 6-11 record in this
Winning in the following years
2003 2009 2013 2014 2015 2016
Since 2016 none with this profile
Have tried to win this Listed race
TACARIB BAY is my choice
No each way with 7 runners
Should we save on Sacred ?
Probably with other negatives
Because she is the class horse
Selection
6.00 Win Bet TACARIB BAY 7/1-13/2
4.00 Win Bet SACRED 5/4
Newbury 4.35
3/1 Wandering Rocks, 4/1 Mahrajaan, 5/1 Sam Cooke
7/1 Hasty Sailor, 8/1 Knight Of Honour, 9/1 Moktasaab
12/1 Berkshire Rebel, Goolwa, 16/1 C'Est No Mour 20/1 Torcello.
12f Handicap Tough Handicap
Horses with 5-17 runs
Dominate this handicap
Horses with more are unsafe
Short history to this race
The only 7 winners
Had the same basic profile
Aged 3 or 4
Between 5 and 17 runs
Coming from Class 2 +
2 or more runs in 12 weeks
It leaves a shortlist of 3
KNIGHT OF HONOUR
MOKTASAAB
MAHRAJAAN
KNIGHT OF HONOUR a 3yo
Just the 1 run now in 78 days
Since he has raced only once
MOKTASAAB is a 4yo
Shortlisted seems right type
MAHRAJAAN is less exposed
From a significant better yard
Selection
9.00 Win Bet MAHRAJAAN 9/4-5/2
1.00 Win Bet MOKTASAAB 7/1-8/1