Today's Best Bet
Pontefract 4.37
OVERHAUGH STREET 20/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Preview Selections
Ayr 1.20
Baltic Voyage 6/4-13/8
Win Bet
Yarmouth 1.35
4.00 Each Way The Spotlight Kid 8/1-9/1
2.00 Win Bet Lelabad 7/2-100/30
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Ayr 1.50
5.00 Win Bet Reidh 9/2-4/1
5.00 Win Bet Hi Royal 10/11-4/5
Yarmouth 2.10
Maasai Mara 2/1 Each Way 1/4 Odds 1-2 Places
Ayr 2.25
4.50 Each Way Never Dark 5/1
1.00 Win Bet Little Muddy 7/1-8/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Pontefract 2.52
Quantum Impact 6/4
Win Bet
Ayr 3.00
6.50 Win Bet Faylaq 9/1-10/1
£1.50 Win Bet Revich 7/1
1.00 Win Bet Love Is Golden 14/1 +
1.00 Win Bet Tilsitt 20/1
Pontefract 4.37
Overhaugh Street 20/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Pontefract 5.40
3.50 Each Way Give It Some Teddy 8/1-9/1
3.00 Win Bet Copper And Five 8/1-9/1
Mad heavy schedule today
Because of large field sizes
Today's Best Bet
Pontefract 4.37
OVERHAUGH STREET 20/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Underneath The Message
Ayr 1.20
Baltic Voyage 6/4-13/8
Win Bet
He is a marginal preference
In a race where 2 stand out
They are the joint favourites
If this horse drifts out to 2/1 +
In Betfair's each way market
I would consider £15 e/way
Don't want to bet it win only
Yarmouth 1.35
4.00 Each Way The Spotlight Kid 8/1-9/1
2.00 Win Bet Lelabad 7/2-100/30
More competitive than ideal
Staking and selections hard
One option Lelabad each way
But is a bit short in a big field
Hopeful but not sure of strength
Ayr 1.50
5 Win Reidh 9/2-4/1
5 Win Hi Royal 10/11-4/5
The choice of two strategies
Reidh each way was the other
Time may show chosen wrong
Strangely both fail same sire stat
So I'm going against my analysis
Not too worried about doing this
Priced will not be easy to obtain
Happy to have £12-15 on both
Yarmouth 2.10
Maasai Mara 2/1
Each Way
1/4 Odds
1-2 Places
Betting 2/1 each way 1-2
Will turn a few stomachs
Only bet I would consider
It's not enough to tempt me
With so many other races
Ayr 2.25
4.50 Each Way Never Dark 5/1
1.00 Win Bet Little Muddy 7/1-8/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Feels a little bit too difficult
Not sure of confidence level
Pontefract 2.52
Quantum Impact 6/4
Win Bet
If he trades at 7/4 or more
In Betfairs each way market
I would be tempted each way
If you want a win only bet
I would suggest you wait
If all 10 horses take part
Then I would have a saver
£8 Win bet on Quantum Impact
£2 Win bet on Hobson Point
If there is a non runner though
I would personally be put off
As the negative Desert Games
Will have an improved chance
If that does happen my strategy
Will either be each way at 7/4
Or not to bother with any bet
Ayr 3.00
6.50 Win Bet Faylaq 9/1-10/1
1.50 Win Bet Revich 7/1
1.00 Win Bet Love Is Golden 14/1 +
1.00 Win Bet Tilsitt 20/1
Quite like my work in this
But my statistics disagree
The market is against us too
So could have made a mess
The staking is a nightmare
Maybe £2.50 each way on two
Would be a better solution
Faylaq would be one horse
Tilsitt could be the second
Bit confused but still like it
But so much now is random
Pontefract 4.37
Overhaugh Street 20/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Could be a very clever bet here
But all my angles need to work
Include some breeding stats too
And that does seem unlikely
But we have a big priced horse
My Stakes
12 Win at 20/1
4 Place at 3/1 + (1-2-3-4)
Pontefract 5.40
3.50 Each Way Give It Some Teddy 8/1-9/1
3.00 Win Bet Copper And Five 8/1-9/1
My instincts tell me
I have got the right horses
But the staking is guesswork
And I spent less time on this
Than any of the other previews
So I don't know what I've got
Yesterday's Summary
Nothing back from the 3 races
Although an insignificant day
Where It was more hands off
Was still a impotent message
Havana Cabana the 66/1 shot
Predictably failed like Sixstar
The race likely came too soon
Mighty Meggsie was second
Got the negatives all beaten
The winner statistically fine
But having his chase debut
On the back of a poor effort
There were reasons to avoid
Nothing back in the last race
Clearly not a significant day
But equally still a poor one
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Ayr 1.20
7/4 Baltic Voyage, 15/8 Chuzzlewit, 13/2 Time Traveller
14/1 Vortigan, 14/1 Youm Saeed, 16/1 Beyond Reproach
16/1 Tipp Town, 20/1 Arkenstaar, Hills Of Gold, 40/1 Knights Spear
50/1 Master Sheridan, 66/1 Rutherglen Rose, Two Rivers
100/1 Penelope's Sister
2yo Novice 7f
Kevin Ryan won this last year
With his second string horse
Doubt he will be repeating this
His second string Youm Saeed
Is unraced and drawn in stall 13
Do not want an unraced horse
Or any horse drawn that high
Tipp Town has both problems
Beyond Reproach is unlikely
As a debutant drawn in stall 11
TIME TRAVELLER is drawn 10
Not ideal but not impossible
Felt he offered fewer positives
Than his two main market rivals
BALTIC VOYAGE
CHUZZLEWIT
Both ran at York 27 days ago
Interesting without being definitive
BALTIC VOYAGE was 80/1 in a maiden
CHUZZLEWIT was 22/1 in a Group race
He is very likeable just on that angle
During the meeting at York
Kevin Ryan commented on him
As potentially one of his best horses
He did not cope in the Gimcrack
Would not have expected him to
Despite that he was still very green
He was beaten a fair way as well
On the figures they both produced
BALTIC VOYAGE scored a bit better
The York maiden he started 80/1 in
Was the top class Convivial maiden
Watching both of their runs on video
BALTIC VOYAGE just looked better
More professional over this distance
Could be wrong but got the verdict
Selection
BALTIC VOYAGE 13/8-7/4
Win Bet
Yarmouth 1.35
3/1 Split Elevens, 7/2 Lelabad, 13/2 Hi Ho Silver, 8/1 Alafdhal
8/1 Mimoset, 8/1 Queen's Company, 9/1 Plantatree, 16/1 Ravi Road
16/1 The Spotlight Kid, 20/1 Little Sunflower, 33/1 Chloellie
33/1 Isle Of Hope, 33/1 Measured Moments, 50/1 Eljaytee
66/1 Khurumbi, 66/1 Piselli Molli.
7f Handicap
Big field
Go back 22 years
Yarmouth 7f handicaps
Horses drawn 15 or more
Have a 0-118 record
HI HO SILVER is drawn 16
Going to oppose him here
MIMOSET only has 3 runs
Given this is a large field
I would look elsewhere
Not a negative but not safe
QUEENS COMPANY a filly
Has raced once in 105 days
Not enough to shortlist her
SPLIT ELEVENS is a 4yo
Won last time has topweight
Could win but in the same time
That he came out and won
LELABAD has ran 3 times
LELABAD is shortlisted
THE SPOTLIGHT KID is
Dropping to 7f on turf
Could be what he needs
If it is he is well treated
There will be dangers
Not enough time to see them all
But you can get 5 places
Which is hopefully enough for this
Selection
4.00 Each Way THE SPOTLIGHT KID 8/1-9/1
2.00 Win Bet LELABAD 7/2-100/30
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Ayr 1.50
6/4 Hi Royal, 4/1 Power Of Gold, Reidh, 5/1 Design
14/1 Artisan Dancer, 16/1 Lovely Lady, 20/1 Cynical
25/1 American Oak, Boy Douglas, 100/1 Epona Pas.
2yo Novice (8f)
HI ROYAL has ran once
Excellent debut in a hot maiden
If Baltic Voyage wins the 1.20pm
His form will have been boosted
He deserves to be the favourite
But should he be odds on to win ?
Breeding stats raise a doubt
Without them being conclusive
Horses aged 2
Sired by Kodiac
Running over a mike
On Good to soft or worse
Have a weak 2-67 record
Those with under 3 runs are 1-33
Male 2yo's in that record are 0-23
HI ROYAL is the 24th to try this
REIDH the same sired by Kodiac
Would not hang my hat on that
But this is a furlong more today
The ground is on the soft side
And there has to be some doubt
POWER OF GOLD is unraced
DESIGN is also unraced
No unraced horses
Has won this race before
POWER OF GOLD is drawn 1
Would not see his draw as safe
Going to avoid the debutants
REIDH could be the one
Interesting that like the favourite
He is also sired by Kodiac as well
We could oppose him on that stat
But stamina would not worry me
Not with Manduro as a damsire
REIDH each way is an option
The bet I would prefer myself
50% stake on Hi Royal at evens
50% stake on Reidh at 5/1 +
But evens may not be available
He is 10/11 as I type
I'd be happy enough with that
Selection
5.00 Win Bet REIDH 7/2-4/1
5.00 Win Bet HI ROYAL 10/11-4/5
Yarmouth 2.10
4/6 Glenfinnan, 5/2 Maasai Mara, 8/1 Vaguely Royal
20/1 Aussie Mystic, Charlatan, 25/1 God Of Fire
66/1 Almarin.
8f Maiden
GLENFINNAN sets the standard
MAASAI MARA is a major threat
No surprise he is well supported
Grade 1 track debut started 11/4
Top stable and should improve
Will GLENFINNAN stay a mile ?
That looks a genuine issue here
Probably will in a smaller field
But with Vaguely Royal unraced
And stablemate of Masai Mara
If you gave me a free bet in this
There is only one option I like
Selection
MAASAI MARA 2/1
Each Way
1/4 Odds
1-2
Ayr 2.25
11/2 Never Dark, 6/1 Burj Malinka, 7/1 Bonito Cavalo
7/1 Little Muddy, 10/1 Prospect, 12/1 Burtonlodge Beauty
12/1 Refuge, 12/1 Triple Jaye, 14/1 Ustath, 14/1 Yazaman
16/1 Lady Celia, Sixcor, 20/1 Hot Diggity Dog, Tanasoq
22/1 Latin Five, 25/1 Claim The Stars, 25/1 Eternal Halo
25/1 Gowanlad, Lady Lade, The Gloaming, 33/1 Kraken Power
40/1 Nodsasgoodasawink.
5f Handicap
Crazy race
Possibly too difficult to do
Digged around a few issues
Horses drawn 16 or more
Have far weaker records
I'd be avoiding all of those
3 year olds are not strong
Recent years a 3-78 record
They all had experience
They all had recent races
None of todays 3 year olds
Were passed as acceptable
I shortlisted 6
Two were weak on ratings
Ustath
Latin Five
The other 4 are better matches
Shortlist
BURJ MALINKA
NEVER DARK
LITTLE MUDDY
REFUGE
BURJ MALINKA is topweight
Concedes weight to everything
Many who have ran more recently
REFUGE is drifting badly
Overpriced around 25/1
But overall the least likely of 4
Never won in this class before
Never won off his current mark
NEVER DARK
LITTLE MUDDY
Both ran in separate divisions
In a Doncaster handicap last week
NEVER DARK bounced back to form
Well treated and has every chance
LITTLE MUDDY does but as a mare
Not the biggest she was 2nd choice
Selection
4.50 Each Way NEVER DARK 5/1
1.00 Win Bet LITTLE MUDDY 7/1-8/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Pontefract 2.52
6/4 Desert Games, 13/8 Quantum Impact, 4/1 Hobson Point
16/1 Derwent Boy, 20/1 Penny Ghent, 20/1 Ready Reckoner
20/1 Smooth Red, Tillybob, 100/1 Harry's Halo, Havanawing.
6f Novice
Shaping like a 3 horse race
Number of runs
2 Quantum Impact
1 Desert Games
0 Hobson Point
DESERT GAMES offers plenty
But not going to select him
Based on these draw angles
Go back to 2015
Pontefract 6f races
Under 11 runners
Horses drawn 9 or higher
With under 9 career runs
Have a 0-47 record in them
DESERT GAMES fails this stat
Go back to 2010
Pontefract 6f races
Under 11 runners
Horses drawn 10
Under 9 career starts
Have a 0-28 record in them
DESERT GAMES fails this stat
Go back to 1997
Pontefract 6f races
Under 11 runners
Horses drawn 10
Under 2 career starts
Have a 0-24 record in them
DESERT GAMES fails this stat
HOBSON POINT is unraced
No reason why he wont win
QUANTUM IMPACT has 2 runs
It must be an advantage here
We could squeeze in a saver
HOBSON POINT that at 7/2-4/1
Will leave that up to you
Selection
QUANTUM IMPACT 6/4
Win Bet
Ayr 3.00
3/1 Al Mubhir, 6/1 First Impression, 13/2 What's The Story
8/1 Love Is Golden, 9/1 Chichester, 9/1 Revich, 10/1 Faylaq
12/1 Cockalorum, 14/1 Yorkshire Lady, 16/1 Sir Chauvelin,
20/1 Fishable, 20/1 Mr Alan, 20/1 Society Red, 20/1 Tilsitt.
10f Handicap
15 Past renewals
CHICHESTER won last year
We backed him on his profile
Horses aged 3-4-5 dominating
12 of the 15 winners
Shared the same profile
Male Horses age 3-4-5
Having 7 or more runs
Running within 32 days
Beaten under 5 Lengths last time
At least 3 races in the last 12 weeks
Coming from Class 2-3-4
Horses with this profile
Have a 12-42 record
FIRST IMPRESSION missed out
As he is short of recent races
Having just 1 run in 116 days
AL MUBHIR missed out too
He is potentially underraced
Just 1 run in 118 days now
Lightly raced brilliant trainer
Could happily forgive him this
But stall 13 may be a problem
Go back to 2008
Ayr Handicaps
Any distance
Any Class
Any time of year
Horses aged 3 or more
Under 7 career starts
Drawn 13 or higher
Have a 0-54 record
AL MUBHIR has 4 races
Has to negotiate stall 13
If we commit to the above
The profile horse are these
LOVE IS GOLDEN
CHICHESTER
TILSITT
One thing worries me about them
TILLIST aside in recent weeks
The others have few recent runs
TILLIST was 66/1 last time out
Same grade not a great signal
FAYLAQ should be drafted in
Whilst a year too old as a 6yo
I am relaxed about that situation
Has the fittest profile in the race
REVICH is also drafted in as well
To compensate for other things
Selection
6.50 Win Bet FAYLAQ 9/1-10/1
1.50 Win Bet REVICH 7/1
1.00 Win Bet LOVE IS GOLDEN 14/1 +
1.00 Win Bet TILSITT 20/1
Pontefract 4.37
100/30 Infiniti, 4/1 Dereham, 5/1 Wynford, 6/1 Flying Standard
9/1 Flint Hill, 10/1 Beggarman, 14/1 Doublethetrouble
14/1 Overhaugh Street, 16/1 Manjaam, 20/1 Sophar Sogood,
20/1 Zuckerberg, 25/1 Hellenista, 33/1 Visite Officielle.
Stayers Handicap 2m 1f
17 Past renewals
All 17 winners
Were drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7
Horses drawn 8 or more
Have a 0-53 record in this race
The following all fail this stat
20/1 Sophar Sogood
20/1 Zuckerberg
25/1 Hellenista
6/1 Flying Standard
9/1 Flint Hill
FLYING STANDARD is interesting
He is sired by Starspangledbanner
Who's not bred a winner beyond 1m 7f
Not a winner on turf beyond 1m 6f
INFINITI could have sire issues
She won over 2 miles last time out
That was in a lower class 6 grade
Her Sire Arcano is also a concern
She has bred 3 winners over 2 miles
INFINTI provided all 3 of those wins
So She clearly stays 2 miles nicely
But this is an extended 2m 1f
INFINITI has just 1 run in 70 days
He is now 9 years old after all
If you look at the sires record
Horses sired by Arcano
Running over 1m 7f and more
In Class 5 and higher races
You find 0-14 record so far
So the stamina case isn't proven
And the damsire was a 6f sprinter
So not sure how well She will stay
VISITE OFFICIELLE is off too long
He is only a 4 year old as well
Not been a good race for 4 year olds
They are just 1-33 in 16 renewals
HELLENISTA is another 4 year old
DOUBLETHETROUBLE is a 4yo
He comes from an unsafe sire
Who has yet to get winner past 9f !
MANAJAAM is a 9yo hard to like
Horses aged 9
Have won this and other races here
But they dont score that well
Go back to 1997
Every one of these Ponty races
With more than 8 runners
Horses aged 9 or more
Absent more than 28 days
Have a 0-70 record in them
WYNFORD fails this off 45 days
BEGGERMAN has a chance
But comes from a sire in Toronado
With no turf winners beyond 1m 5f (0-17)
FLINT HILL won this last season
But he is a year older with a month off
And he is not drawn in stall 9
Horses drawn 8 or more
Have a 0-53 record in this race
DEREHAM is a 6 year old
He has a nasty 84 days absence
When you also factor in the fact
He has raced just once in 138 days
The warning bells start to ring
Go back to 1997
Every one of these Ponty races
Any class
Any time of year
With more than 7 runners
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 62 days
Carrying 8st 11lbs or more
Return a 0-72 record since 1997
DEREHAM the 73rd to try this
My biggest problem
So few have recent runs
Going with a big priced bet
OVERHAUGH STREET is a 9yo
He is drawn in stall 8 as well
So not without some concerns
But he stays and has won here
His last run is quite excusable
Ran in a better Chester 2m race
Where he had the outside draw
He is fit enough and overpriced
Selection
OVERHAUGH STREET 20/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Pontefract 5.40
5/1 Gainsbourg, 6/1 Mango Boy, 6/1 Shahnaz
7/1 Copper And Five, 8/1 Bushfire, 10/1 Alpha Cru
11/1 Brunello Breeze, 12/1 Muhtashim, 14/1 Crownthorpe
14/1 Ventura Rascal, 16/1 Give It Some Teddy, Regal Mirage
25/1 Garden Oasis, 25/1 Vaccine, 33/1 Freddy Robinson
33/1 Mr Trick.
8f Handicap
Tough race
But a long history behind it
Which tells us what we want
A run within 4 weeks
At least 7 runs in 12 months
A horse from 8f or more
Horse drawn 9 or lower
Only 2 horses
Passed these angles
GIVE IT SOME TEDDY 10/1-11/1
COPPER AND FIVE 8/1-9/1
Want some safety
But also get a drink out of either
Selection
3.50 Each Way GIVE IT SOME TEDDY 8/1-9/1
3.00 Win Bet COPPER AND FIVE 8/1-9/1