Preview Selections
Beverley 1.42
£6.00 Win Bet Sixstar 4/1
£2.00 Each Way Havana Cabana 66/1
Sligo 2.00
Mighty Meggsie 5/4-11/8
Win Bet
Sligo 5.30
£5.00 Win Bet Rudy Catrail 11/1-12/1
£5.00 Place Bet Chief Seattle 4/5
Beverley 1.42
HAVANA CABANA 66/1
Can she win ?
Very much doubt it
Far more likely to be last
Will be shocked if placing
But I said that in April
Had to mention this one
Surely it's worth a nibble
Even if it is only £1- £2
Based on the April result
Today's Best Bet
Beverley 1.42
£6.00 Win Bet Sixstar 4/1
£2.00 Each Way Havana Cabana 66/1
Yesterday's Summary
Got nothing back from them
Foreseeable Future didn't run
So we lost our place saver bet
Left with a half point bet at 14/1
No surprise we got no returns
Prairie Falcon was so unlucky
Not sure if it cost him a victory
The racing post thought it did
Hard to judge but had no luck
The split stake Redcar bet lost
We had a saver bet in second
The winner had 535 days off
Ran into a unforeseen winner.
Stone Circle ran well but failed
He ran his race but a slow start
Meant his effort was mainly used
To recover ground he gave up.
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Beverley 1.42
100/30 Martin's Brig, 7/2 Sixstar, 4/1 Caracristi
10/1 Mister Charlie, 11/1 Moon Over The Sea
12/1 Ramamaras Boy, Van Zant, 14/1 Furniture Factors
14/1 Havana Cabana, 16/1 She's Got Bottle
20/1 Barrister Blaster, 33/1 Gaazooo.
Apprentice Classified Stakes (8f)
Whilst we have to guess
Have a soft spot for these races
You could several of these
Are feel you have some chance
SIXSTAR won at 50/1 last time
Some say it was softer ground
I suspect the distance helped
Moving away from sprint trips
This is a 5 second stiffer trip
Feel that should suit him well
We have the best rider too
He is my best guess here
With something on an outsider
On April 6th
We had a 50/1 winner
Trained by Neil Mechie
Based on some research
His record of big priced horses
Running for the first time for him
On the back of long absences
Gold Ring won that day at 50/1
HAVANA CABANA fits this work
Impossible to like his chances
Neither could you the 50/1 winner
So just having part stakes on him
Selection
£6.00 Win Bet SIXSTAR 4/1
£2.00 Each Way HAVANA CABANA 66/1
Sligo 2.00
13/8 Mighty Meggsie, 3/1 Raven Rule
5/1 Hidden Land, 9/1 Faith Du Val, 12/1 Hope Des Blins
12/1 Miss Polly Shelby, 14/1 Elite Des Mottes
20/1 North Of Nashville, 40/1 Pepperocco
50/1 Athagabhain.
Mares Beginners Chase 2m 1f
MIGHTY MEGGSIE is a 6yo
She sets the standard so far
She has had 4 chase races
That could be good enough
Opposing a block of runners
Based on the following angle
September to December
Mares Beginners Chases
Any distance
Horses aged 5
Having their chase debut
Coming from non pattern races
Have a modest 2-63 record
In fields of 6 or more
They have a 0-54 record
With over 8 lifetime runs
They have a 0-30 record
The following 5 year olds
Fail 1 or both of these stats
MISS POLLY SHELBY
PEPPEROCCO
NORTH OF NASHVILLE
HOPE DES BLINS
HIDDEN LAND
FAITH DU VAL is a 7yo
This is her chase debut too
No real statistical concerns
But just 2 runs in 8 months
She has not show enough
To reassure about form/fitness
ELITE DES MOTTES similar
RAVEN RULE - 4 chase runs
MIGHTY MEGGSIE- 4 chase runs
Racing Post Chase ratings
113 Mighty Meggsie
110 Mighty Meggsie
107 Mighty Meggsie
103 Raven Rule
98 Mighty Meggsie
97 Raven Rule
97 Raven Rule
00 Raven Rule
MIGHTY MEGGSIE has done more
Just 12 days ago a creditable 2nd
RAVEN RULE in contrast
Just hammered in a flat maiden
MIGHTY MEGGSIE
Looks a bit better quality
She should make all and win
If she does not go off too fast
Selection
MIGHTY MEGGSIE 5/4-11/8
Win Bet
Sligo 5.30
11/4 Chief Seattle, 7/2 Not So Simple, 11/2 Crobally Boy
6/1 Getaclan, 10/1 Cluan Dara, 12/1 Diegos Way
16/1 Mickey Shea, 20/1 Dangan Des Champs
20/1 Esthers Marvel, Rudy Catrail, Sanibel Island
25/1 Autumn Crusade, 33/1 Fr Gilligansvoyge
33/1 Wee Small Hours.
Handicap Chase 3m 1f
Interesting long distance chase
CHIEF SEATTLE won 5 days ago
If he stays this extra 2f
He will probably win the race
Few will doubt his stamina
He will probably get home ok
But his sire is the only one in this
Who has no winners over 3m +
So far all 11 that tried failed
Racing Post argue
His hold up style makes him unsafe
Maybe but bigger issues are at play
Has a tough weight to overcome
He is most likely winner of the race
If he runs his race a place is likely
So I am tempted by him each way
But instead making him the saver
The opposition is complicated
GETACLAN is a mare
Chase debut today over 3m 1f
Happy to look elsewhere
CROBALLY BOY is a 7 year old
Pulled up only 11 days ago
Needs to bounce back fast
But one or two have done so
Stops me making him a negative
CLUAN DARA ran 5 days ago
Beaten 48 lengths offputting
NOT SO SIMPLE could win it
Not been fencing in 14 months
Jockey turned pro 5 months ago
Never ridden a chase winner yet
Not that it would bother me much
But he has questions to answer
CHIEF SEATTLE
That run 5 days ago
Will influence this race
SANIBEL ISLAND was 8th
RUDY CATRAIL was 9th
RUDY CATRAIL went off too fast
Dropping back once headed
He finished upside Sanibel Island
SANIBEL ISLAND needed that
Running off a 127 day absence
He may need more runs now
He could even bounce today
RUDY CATRAIL may finish ahead
Looks right for a win place
The favourite being the place
Selection
£5.00 Win Bet RUDY CATRAIL 12/1
£5.00 Place Bet CHIEF SEATTLE 4/5
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Ante Post
Saturday
Ayr Gold Cup
6/1 Khanjar 7/1 Erosandpsyche 12/1 Bielsa
12/1 Commanche Falls 12/1 Summerghand
14/1 Gulliver 16/1 Fivethousandtoone 16/1 Mr Wagyu
16/1 Chiefofchiefs 16/1Popmaster 20/1 Inver Park
20/1 Magical Spirit 20/1 Vadream 20/1 Bergerac
25/1 Chil Chil 25/1Count dOrsay 25/1 Juan Les Pins
25/1 Thunder Eclipse 25/1 Zarzyni 25/1 Admiral D
33/1 Air Raid 33/1 Aleezdancer 33/1 Documenting
33/1 Hyperfocus 33/1 My Eyes Adore You 33/1 Tinto
33/1 Sir Dancealot 33/1 Snash 33/1 Bernardo OReilly
40/1 Gis A Sub 40/1 Good Earth 40/1 Honey Sweet
40/1 Lampang 40/1 Lucky Man 40/1 Raatea
40/1 Sunday Sovereign 40/1 Aberama Gold
50/1 Aberma Gold 50/1 Admirality 50/1 Ahlawi
50/1 Aplomb 50/1 Asadjumeirah 50/1 Boogie Time
50/1 Ascot Adventure 50/1 Dave Dexter 50/1 Digital
Early thoughts
Nothing more at this stage
With over 100 entered
And some unusual side issues
EROSANDPSYCHE being one
Only 6 days ago 2nd in a Group 1
One of the more unusual profiles
In terms of today
The last 12 winners of this
Were all rated 97 or higher
Only 28 horses match this
Concentrating on these 28
6/1 Khanjar 7/1 Erosandpsyche
12/1 Commanche Falls 12/1 Summerghand
12/1 Bielsa 14/1 Gulliver 16/1 Fivethousandtoone
16/1 Chiefofchiefs 16/1 Mr Wagyu 16/1 Popmaster
20/1 Inver Park 20/1 Magical Spirit 20/1 Vadream
20/1 Bergerac 25/1 Chil Chil 25/1 Thunder Eclipse
25/1 Zarzyni 25/1 Admiral D 33/1 Air Raid
33/1 Documenting 33/1 Sir Dancealot 40/1 Lampang
40/1 Gis A Sub 40/1 Honey Sweet 40/1 Lucky Man
50/1 Escobar 50/1 Royal Commando
50/1 Volatile Analyst
Last winner aged 7 or more
Was a long way back in 1993
This age are 0-83 since 1999
This takes out 9 horses
I'd take out older horses
Who are still left on the list
If they have long absences
We need a good recent race
All horses who last time out
Were beaten 7 or more lengths
Have a 0-75 record since 2007
This takes a couple more out
All horses who last time out
Ran in Listed,Group 3, Group 2
Have a Have a 0-94 record in this
Which takes out another three
We need at least 2 recent runs
Within the previous 12 weeks
The 3 year old record is 3-84
They all had under 12 races
They were all rated 100 or more
Much safer off with a male horse
No Declarations yet
No Draw to consider
But if the above works out
The winner is one of these
6/1 Khanjar
7/1 Erosandpsyche
12/1 Commanche Falls
16/1 Fivethousandtoone
16/1 Popmaster
20/1 Inver Park
20/1 Bergerac
25/1 Zarzyni
Hopefully a few won't run
And the draw will help us