Preview Selections
Nottingham 1.45
Nader King 7/2
Each Way
Nottingham 2.55
£4.00 Each Way Love Fifteen 10/1-12/1
£2.00 Win Bet Villemacho 5/1
Punchestown 3.20
£4.50 Each WaySkippin Court 13/2-7/1
£1.00 Win Bet Ebasari 10/1 +
Nottingham 4.40
£4.50 Each Way Zim Baby 8/1
£1.00 Win Bet Ava Go Joe 6/1
Nottingham 5.15
£5.00 Win Bet Reigning Profit 7/1
£5.00 Place Bet Wade's Magic 10/11-1/1
Today's Best Bet
Nottingham 5.15
£5.00 Win Bet REIGNING PROFIT 7/1
£5.00 Place Bet WADES MAGIC 10/11-1/1
Several staking options
Happy with either as the bet
I would make sure if either won
We could not lose any money
Might be a bit naughty
To have a place bet within
The day's best bet
Can't remember doing it before
Would not with an account bet
But wrote today off in my head
As it was impacted by yesterday
Anyone who can not get it on
Could go each way and saver
Underneath The Message
Nottingham 1.45
Nader King 7/2 Each Way
Lots of known unknowns here
Bit obvious and no guarantees
Don't have much interest in it
Nottingham 2.55
£4.00 Each Way Love Fifteen 10/1-12/1
£2.00 Win Bet Villemacho 5/1
VILLEMACHO the saver bet
Looks the most likely winner
Probably should have made
A better effort with the staking
Maybe £5 win Love Fifteen
With £5 place on Villemacho
Would be a safer alternative
Taken a risk with the choice
Happy if either one wins it
But if they do and all we get
Are stakes back it's not ideal
Punchestown 3.20
£4.50 Each WaySkippin Court 13/2-7/1
£1.00 Win Bet Ebasari 10/1 +
Just following profiles here
Again could stake differently
Hopeful but a bit in the dark
Nottingham 4.40
£4.50 Each Way Zim Baby 8/1
£1.00 Win Bet Ava Go Joe 6/1
Feel the same here
Hopeful not convinced
My only bet today
Win - Win - Place
Nottingham 5.15
£20 REIGNING PROFIT 7/1
£10 Win Bet WADES MAGIC 4/1-9/2
£30 Place Bet WADES MAGIC 10/11-1/1
Yesterday's Summary
Monday was the last message
It started badly 2 poor defeats
One a short priced losing bet
The other won by a negative
Choosing the wrong e/w horse
I was starting to think by them
It was a double funeral week
The best bet returned stakes
Noble Crusade won well 4/1
So lots of damage cleaned up
6 previews went L L P W L W
That was considerably better
Than it was looking like being
So a bit of relief with the finish
It wasn't a great overall effort
But we did have two winners
Best bet did not lose anything
It was profitable on paper too
Recovered from a poor start
It could have been far worse
Feel we earnt at least a draw
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Nottingham 1.45
2/1 King Of Steel, 3/1 Alshadhian, Nader King, 8/1 Cello
10/1 Mr Boson, 14/1 Twoforthegutter, 20/1 Climate Precedent
25/1 In The Trenches, Star, 66/1 Super Spy.
2yo Maiden 8f
KING OF STEEL
Unraced favourite
Expensive from average stable
Drawn 10 of 10
Complicated issue
That is not a great draw
Go back to 2010
Unraced horses here over 8f
Horses drawn 10 + are 4-169
I can make that stat look better
Depends on field sizes or ground
Bottom line
I would oppose the favourite
There is an alternative bet somewhere
But we will have to guess that bet
Best guess
NADIER KING 7/2
Each Way
Nottingham 2.55
3/1 Hernan Cortes, 7/2 Manuha, 6/1 Entrancement
8/1 Mickey Donovan, 10/1 Lavender Beauty,
12/1 Beautiful Star, Love Fifteen, 16/1 So Chic, Starmas
16/1 Villemacho, 20/1 Ravigill.
8f Nursery
Looked at the history of this
Past renewals show
Horses with 5 + runs are best
And if you combine inexperience
With a big weight it's far from ideal
Horses with under 5 runs
Carrying more than 9st 4lbs
Have a 0-35 record in this race
The following all fail this
HERMAN CORTES
SO CHIC
MANUHA
LAVENDDER BEAUTY
BEAUTIFUL STAR
Some flexibility has to be shown
Happy to ignore the odd pound
The safest profile here
5 or more career starts
Running within 6 weeks
Beaten <10 lengths last time
Class 4 or lower last time out
There are other side issues
How many of these 2 year olds
Will stay 8f on soft ground
ENTRANCEMENT as an example
Comes from a sire in Expert Eye
Who has yet to get a juvenile win
Over as far as this distance before
There is the draw to consider
Higher the stall number you get
The less the chance you have
Played around with the race
The profile I liked best
Horses with 4 or more runs
Running 8-9-10-11-12-13 days ago
Coming from a nursery
Coming from a Class 6
Beaten under 7 lengths last time
4 horses had this profile
They finished W W W W
Winning in 2011 2012 2015 2016
Leads me to 2 horses
I don't know how they will run
But instincts tell me this feels right
But have to guess the stakes
Shortlist
VILLEMACHO
LOVE FIFTEEN
Selection
£4.00 Each Way LOVE FIFTEEN 10/1-12/1
£2.00 Win Bet VILLEMACHO 5/1
Punchestown 3.20
5/1 Music Of Tara, 13/2 Drumcliff, 7/1 Typical Thomas
8/1 Curious Times, 8/1 Skippin Court, 10/1 Charli Parcs
10/1 Esperti, 10/1 King Kal, 10/1 My Immortal, 16/1 Ebasari
20/1 Auckland, 20/1 Formal Order, 20/1 Make The Switch
20/1 Quirt Evans, 25/1 It Could Be You, Roi De Dubai
33/1 Scalino.
Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f
Looks at the 9 past renewals
8 winners shared this profile
Male horses
Under 9 years old
Under 25 career starts
11st 4lbs or less weight
Running within 8 weeks
At least 4 runs in 12 months
Not coming from a novice
Not from a maiden hurdle
Beaten under 25 lengths last time
9 Past renewals
Horses with the above profile
Have a an 8-25 record in them
Two qualifiers
Selection
£4.50 Each Way SKIPPIN COURT 13/2-7/1
£1.00 Win Bet EBSARI 10/1 +
Nottingham 4.40
3/1 Fantasy Master, 4/1 Fast Response, 6/1 Ava Go Joe
8/1 Good Luck Fox, 8/1 Lord Riddiford, 8/1 Zim Baby
10/1 Sound Reason, 14/1 Abate, 16/1 Josies Kid
16/1 Monsieur Kodi, 18/1 Blue De Vega, 20/1 Parisiac.
5f Handicap
FANTASY MASTER is favourite
Can see a good case for him
Having just won a class 2
But in the last previous 13 months
He has raced only 3 times before
He is also down in distance too
My angles say No
Happy to look elsewhere
Did not feel the following
Had safe enough profiles
SOUND REASON underraced
MONSIEUR KODI - age profile and trip
JODIES KID on his class
GOOD LUCK FOX bottomweight
Never won in class or off his rating
ABATE draw and profile
BLUE DE VEGA age/absence
PARISIAC looked beatable
FAST RESPONSE is tempting
But stall 11 is not a good draw
LORD RIDDIFORD just missed out
Go back to 2000
Nottingham 5f handicaps
With over 10 runners
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent over 11 days
Carrying 8st 10lbs or more
Drawn 1-2-3
Have a 0-55 record
LORD RIDDIFORD fails this
Decided to split stake this
Selection
£4.50 Each Way ZIM BABY 8/1
£1.00 Win Bet AVA GO JOE 9/1-10/1
Nottingham 5.15
4/1 Captain Corcoran, 5/1 Shesadabber, 6/1 Wade's Magic
7/1 Hot Scoop, 15/2 Reigning Profit, 8/1 Brandy Station
10/1 Tilsworth Ony Ta, 12/1 Go Poppy, High Opinion
14/1 Navy Drums, 25/1 Good To Go, 33/1 Lucky Beggar
33/1 Red Stripes.
5f Handicap
Class 6 race
WADES MAGIC
Backed him twice each way recently
That was over 6f and this is only 5f
No reason to think it's an issue
Still feel a win is coming soon
Happy to go in again with him
A few look much riskier anyway
SHESADABBER is a 6yo mare
She fails this earlier statistic
Go back to 2000
Nottingham 5f handicaps
With over 10 runners
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent over 11 days
Carrying 8st 10lbs or more
Drawn 1-2-3
Have a 0-55 record
SHESADABBER fails this
TILSWORTH ONLY TA is a 3 year old
Happy to oppose him drawn in stall 12
HIGH OPINION too inexperienced
BRANDY STATION is underraced
As a 7yo with 1 run in just 194 days
NAVY DRUMS has a horrible draw
GO POPPY hasn't done enough
HOT SCOOP has a chance
Feel we can get him beaten
CAPTAIN CORCORAN is a danger
But exposed and he is only rated 55
REIGNING PROFIT is a positive
Feel he might win this
Feel the topweights have this
Shortlist
REIGNING PROFIT 7/1
WADES MAGIC 9/2
Could bet either
I'd like to bet both
Even one each way and saver
But playing it this way
Selection
£5.00 Win Bet REIGNING PROFIT 7/1
£5.00 Place Bet WADES MAGIC 10/11-1/1