6 Previews
0 Account Bet
No Account bet
Today's Best Bet
Doncaster 1.25
CATHY COME HOME 6/1-13/2-7/1 Each Way
Preview Selections
Doncaster 1.25
Cathy Come Home 6/1-13/2-7/1 Each Way
Doncaster 2.00
5.00 Win Bet Alpha Capture 9/1-10/1
5.00 Place Bet Cold Case10/11- 4/5
Epsom 2.15
8.00 Win Bet Cherry Cola 10/1-11/1
1.00 Win Bet Militry Decoration 9/1
1.00 Win Bet Napper Tandy 7/1-8/1
Doncaster 2.35
5.00 Win Bet Novakai 8/1
5.00 Win Dance In The Grass 1/1-11/10
Doncaster 3.10
Yesyes 4/1 Each Way
Laytown 6.25
Jaafel 6/1-7/1 Each Way
Today's Message
Plenty of rain about today
Looking to repeat yesterday
Aiming for a best bet winner
Hope other races hold up
Liked yesterdays message
Not so keen on todays though
Turned out a reactive message
Chopping and changing races
Reacting to non runners/prices
This has been a nuisance to do
It does have it's good points
Happy with the best bet
Happy with my favourite bet
My favourite Bet
Laytown 6.25
JAAFEL 6/1-7/1 Each Way
Jaafel in my opinion
Looks a slightly better bet
Than the official best bet
But how can I stake this
Irish evening race
It is a maiden as well
Very weak market
And It is on the beach !!
So staying with Doncaster
Today's Best Bet
Doncaster 1.25
CATHY COME HOME 7/1 Each Way
Underneath The Message
Doncaster 1.25
Cathy Come Home 7/1
20 Win
Epsom 2.15
8.00 Cherry Cola 10/1-11/1
1.00 Militry Decoration 9/1
1.00 Napper Tandy 7/1-8/1
Will probably follow staking
And just have 10 point interest bet
Not betting in the 2.35pm
Non runner may affect draw stat
Not betting in the 3.10pm
The negative is now the selection
Changed position so much in this
Almost swallowed my own tongue
Laytown 6.25
Jaafel 7/1
30 Win Bet
Yesterday's Summary
Found 2 winners in 6 previews
But got the main decisions right
BOUNCE THE BLUES won well
Looked beat but stormed through
Exciting rewarding best bet win
But it was weak in places too
Right to suspect In some races
I had strolled off the right track
JUST FINE the disappointment
But overall we did finish in profit
The best bet thankfully winning
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Doncaster 1.25
7/2 Bonny Angel, 5/1 Misty Blues
7/1 Cathy Come Home, Lily In The Jungle
15/2 Hi Clare, 8/1 Coco Jamboo, 9/1 Palm Lily
10/1 Speriamo, 12/1 Alexa's Princess
12/1 Crime Fiction
6f Fillies Nursery
Last years winner
Was the first with just 2 runs
PALM LILY tried to be the second
There is a subtle difference though
Last years winner dropped in trip
Horses from 6f or shorter
Beaten over 2 lengths last time
Have a 0-59 record in this race
PALM LILY has this 0-59 profile
CATHY COME HOME shares it
COCO JAMBOO does as well
She has the worst drawn in 10
Go back to 2006
Doncaster
Every 6f race
Under 11 runners
Horses drawn 10
Have a 0-49 record
COCO JAMBOO fails this
Every past winner
Had between 2 and 6 runs
Horses with more are 0-27
LILY IN THE JUNGLE has 10 runs
Could well be too exposed here
ALEXA'S PRINCESS is out
No winners came from Class 6
She is going up 4 grades in class
CRIME FICTOR won at Redcar
This extended 6f may be too far
She would not be first choice
SPERIAMO has 81 days off
Longest absent winner 49 days
She has plenty to prove in this
HI CLARE has questions too
Just beaten in a Class 5 nursery
Shortlist
CATHY COME HOME
BONNY ANGEL
MISTY BLUES
Horses who last time out
Won a nursery are just 1-22
Those from Class 3 or lower 0-20
Those with under 6 runs 0-15
BONNY ANGEL fails both angles
Not a close match to a winner
MISTY BLUES is shortlisted
Started 50/1 ay York last time
In that same nursery at York
CATHY COME HOME was 13/2
Beaten 5 lengths in that Nursery
Means she failed an earlier stat
Beaten further than ideal there
But 5 lengths seems forgivable
She did not have luck in running
She was in a big field of 18 horses
When a filly with only 2 past runs
Took on males with a big weight
She can be upgraded on that run
Connections have always said
She is smart with plenty of ability
CATHY COME HOME is rated 91
She only has a 0-83 field to beat
Selection
CATHY COME HOME 6/1-7/1 Each Way
Doncaster 2.00
5/2 Cold Case, 4/1 Magical Sunset, 7/1 Alpha Capture
15/2 Holguin, 8/1 Legend Of Xanadu, 9/1 Eminency
11/1 Hectic, 14/1 Galeron, 16/1 True Statesman
20/1 Swift Asset, 22/1 Waiting All Night, 28/1 Knebworth
50/1 Once More For Luck, Pjanoo, 100/1 Hiatus.
2yo Sales race
COLD CASE is the class horse
But gives weight to several here
Should go close but will be tested
The outsiders offer little
SWISS ASSET included from 5f
TRUE STATESMAN is not safe
Coming from the outside draw
Horses with only 2 career runs
Have a 0-39 record in this race
Horses with under 4 races
Have a 1-55 record with this
ALPHA CAPITAL has 2 runs
That has not been succesfull
But comes from the best stable
EMINENCY has the same issue
HECTIC also has just 2 races
MAGICAL SUNSET has 1 run
Least experienced horse in it
The 2019 winner had just 1 run
He was the only one that did
He won the race from stall 1
MAGICAL SUNSET is drawn 11
That may be difficult for him
Not enough to rule him out
Not from such a serious stable
Having said that it's interesting
In the 15 previous renewals
Richard Hannon is 0-46 in the
Not been a great race for him
GALERON feels quite resistible
WAITING ALL NIGHT rated 96
Does look interesting off 8st 8lbs
But was well beaten last time out
Horses beaten over 10 lengths
On their last runs are 0-25 in this
He was only 66/1 in the Gimcrack
No previous winners of this race
Started more than 20/1 last time
Every past winner of this race
Ran within the previous 54 days
HOLGUIN has 86 days absence
Could be a big ask from stall 1
And was a 40/1 chance last time
No previous winners of this race
Started more than 20/1 last time
5 of the previous 7 winners
8 of the last 13 winners
Ran at the York Ebor meeting
Both of these shortlisted do
COLD CASE
LEGEND OF XANADU
LEGEND OF XANADU
Drifting in the market
Not sure why though
But radically drifting
When you factor in his drift
MAGICAL SUNSET's inexperience
HOLGUIN's absence
The horses who last time out
Started unfancied at huge prices
It may finally be the year
That a twice raced horse wins
ALPHA CAPTURE could be it
Do not want to commit fully
So I think the wisest strategy
Go Win bet with a place bet
Selection
5.00 Win Bet ALPHA CAPTURE 9/1-10/1
5.00 Place Bet COLD CASE 10/11- 4/5
Epsom 2.15
7/2 Derry Lad, 9/2 Thibault, 8/1 Militry Decoration
8/1 Napper Tandy, 12/1 Enthused 12/1 King's Castle
14/1 Bad Company, Duesenberg 14/1 Niblawi
16/1 Vissani, 20/1 Cherry Cola 25/1 Runrized.
12f Handicap
DERRY LAD has 54 days off
Sired by Epaulette on soft ground
Without a run in several weeks
Not convinced he will get home
Not conclusive could be wrong
But felt there were safer options
MILITARY DECORATION similar
She shares the same sire too
But passing him with recent run
Horses with 11st 10lbs or more
Have a 0-14 record in this race
The following horses fail this
ENTHUSED
BAD COMPANY
ENTHUSED has plenty of weight
When you factor in 39 days off
BAD COMPANY flopped last time
But happy to forgive him that run
It was an Apprentice race
He was drawn 16/16 at Sandown
Yet set the pace for a fair way
But he does fail the weight stat
He is going up 2f in distance
He is unproven over this trip
And his mother was a 5f-6f horse
Not convinced he will stay here
VISSANI isn't doing enough
RUNRIZED is underraced as a 7yo
NIBLAWI has been off too long
THIBAULT is also short of races
He is 9 years old
Raced just once in 123 days
KINGS CASTLE has an absence
Could have problems from stall 1
DUESENBERG has been hurdling
NAPPER TANDY is a positive
Ran badly last time it is a worry
But he may have bounced there
CHERRY COLA on a good day
Could easily win a race like this
But not sure if this a good day
Dutching this race
Selection
8.00 Win Bet CHERRY COLA 10/1-11/1
1.00 Win Bet MILITRY DECORATION 9/1
1.00 Win Bet NAPPER TANDY 7/1-8/1
Doncaster 2.35
11/10 Dance In The Grass, 4/1 Frankness
8/1 Ferrari Queen, 9/1 Novakai, 12/1 Mottisfont
16/1 Cell Sa Beela, 25/1 Perfect Prophet
28/1 Dubai Jemila, 50/1 Polly Pott.
May Hill Stakes
2yo Group 2 for fillies (8f)
Felt these issues were important
DANCE IN THE GRASS rated 105
Has a big numerical advantage here
But it's also why she is a short price
This advantage suggests to me
We should buy her out of the race
There are 3 main alternatives
FRANKNESS
Going to oppose her
As she is drawn 10-10
Go back 22 years to 2000
Doncaster
Every 8f race
Under 11 runners
Horses drawn 10
Have a 0-48 record
FRANKNESS fails this
FERRARI QUEEN is an option
The stablemate of the favourite
Do we want a Mark Johnston
Second string in a Group race ?
NOVAKAI is the preference
And the second half of the bet
Selection
5.00 Win Bet NOVAKAI 8/1
5.00 Win DANCE IN THE GRASS 1/1-11/10
Doncaster 3.10
6/4 Eshaada, 100/30 Yesyes, 5/1 Believe In Love
7/1 Urban Artist, 11/1 Mimikyu, 14/1 River Of Stars
16/1 Glenartney, 33/1 Nell Quickly.
Park Hill
Fillies Group 2 over 1m 6f
YESYES was 3rd in this last year
Good effort she was inexperienced
But she had 4 warm up runs in 2021
This year she has had just the 1 run
She is like the 2012 winner of this
So I am not calling her a negative
But just 1 run this year is not ideal
Since the 2001 renewal
Horses running within 20 days
Have a 0-34 record in this race
Having a recent run is a concern
Maybe this race is an afterthought
GLENARTNEY fails this angle
RIVER OF STARS does as well
BELIEVE IN LOVE is a 5yo
He ran in this as a 3 year old
Favourite there but a negative
Much stronger and established
She comes here 2nd top rated
Her problem is 19 career starts
She is on the exposed side
Past winners
Had the following races
3 12 10 7 8 5 6 12 18 7 15 7
16 19 16 8 6 10 10 10 8 9 8
BELIEVE IN LOVE has 19 runs
We have had a winner with 19
Had 6 winners with 15-19 races
But none of the exposed winners
With more than 11 career starts
Were absent more than 26 days
BELIEVE IN LOVE has 68 days
ESHADA beat her last time out
She is 7lbs + clear on ratings
And a previous group 1 winner
She does offer some concerns
She has 68 days off the track
Will that impact on her stamina
Her sire has winners over 1m 6f +
But non were in listed/group races
May be wrong
But going to avoid the favourite
That tells me
YESYES has a better chance
Than her profile suggests she does
She comes from a hot trial race
Horses from the Lily Langtry
Have won this 5 times since 2007
YESYES comes from this race
URBAN ARTIST comes from there
URBAN ARTIST is a 7 year old
None of the previous 24 winners
Were aged 6 or more never mind 7
But few tried (4) none were fancied
The 4 year olds doing this
Have a 4-5 record in this race
YESYES is the best age of the pair
And whilst 1 run this year is a worry
The 2012 winner had that profile
I need some cover
Taking on the Group 1 favourite
Ended up where I never thought
I would go at the start of the race
Selection
YESYES 4/1 Each Way
Laytown 6.25
5/2 True Artist, 7/2 Yester, 9/2 Coeur D'or
6/1 The Penny, 13/2 I Know I Can, 7/1 Jaafel
7/1 Sweeping Statement, 7/1 Two Two Time
66/1 Jinglers Bridge, Winning Mischief.
7f Maiden
Not hard to find weak profile
Some strange ones as well
COEIR D'OR the strangest
Coming down from 12f to 7f
Win lose or draw happy to avoid
TRUE ARTIST another strange one
Two runs ago she completely flopped
Sweating at start
Reluctant to load
Almost refused to race
Left many lengths at the start
Not prepared to forgive her that
As last time she refused to race
TWO TWO TIME a 4yo filly
Comes here with 379 days off
THE PENNY has a chance
But she is up in distance here
Started 50/1 50/1 50/1 in 3 runs
Hardly inspires confidence in her
SWEEPING STATEMENT a 4yo
Has to be seen as a positive here
Given she has decent numbers
And many others are negatives
But she was sold cheaply recently
YESTER also sold cheaply in July
JAAFEL drops down 2.5 furlongs
Has the ability if he copes with it
Dug a bit deeper into recent form
He's had some good excuses
Drawn 16 last time one of those
Think he is underestimated here
Option 1
7.00 Win Bet JAAFEL 7/1
1.50 Win Bet SWEEPING STATEMENT 7/1
1.50 Win Bet I KNOW I CAN 7/1
I prefer Option 2
Selection
JAAFEL 7/1 Each Way
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Had a piece prepared
About recent account bets
But decided not to send it
Pull it for another day soon
Felt a bit too controversial
But will cover the issue soon
Saturday
Doncaster 3.30 St Leger Stakes
10/11 New London, 11/2 Eldar Eldarov
7/1 Hoo Ya Mal 8/1 Haskoy, 12/1 Zechariah
14/1 French Claim, 20/1 Emily Dickinson
25/1 Bluegrass, 25/1 Giavellotto
100/1 El Habeeb, 200/1 Lizzie Jean
Saturday's Classic
11 horses left in the last classic
Final Declarations very shortly
Doubt I will have a strong view
Probably cover this on the day
Ground reportedly turning soft
Before the market suspended
NEW LONDON was out to 2.4
Still odds on with bookmakers
But was looking weak on betfair
I have no stamina concerns
No worries about the ground
I can argue against his rivals
Far easier than I can do him
Without knowing the draw yet
I see him as most likely winner
NEW LONDON
Any price at odds against
Does tempt me as a £5 saver
This buys him out of the race
With the chance of upgrading
Placing the remaining stakes
Either on him or an alternative
Perhaps a 4 Win Saver 5/4
Returns us 9.60 if he wins
And buys him out of the race
Think that is good business
Assuming he doesn't pull out
5 Saver Bet suggested
Saturday
September 24th
Cambridgeshire Handicap
4/1 Mujtaba 10/1 Protagonist 12/1 Dual Identity
14/1 Savvy Victory 14/1 Eilean Dubh 16/1 Glam de Vega
16/1 Kitsune Power 16/1 Montassib 16/1 Noble Dynasty
16/1 Ajero 20/1 Amortentia 20/1 Good Heavens
20/1 Jimi Hendrix 20/1 Legend of Dubai 20/1 Migdam
20/1 Lord Protector 20/1 Moktasaab 20/1 Okeechobee
20/1 Operating 20/1 Peter The Great 20/1 Secret Box
20/1 Shining Blue 20/1 Sonny Liston 20/1 Special Envoy
20/1 Totally Charming 20/1 Wanees 20/1 Al Marmar
20/1 Ziggy 25/1 Atrium 25/1 Awaal 25/1 Bashosh
25/1 Bell Rock 25/1 Bolthole 25/1 Dhahabi
25/1 Electrical Storm 25/1 First View 25/1 Janoobi
25/1 Saga 25/1 Spirit Dancer 25/1 Tyrrhenian Sea
25/1 Devoted Poet 33/1
MUJTABA
He hacked up yesterday
Impressive now 4/1 favourite
Planning to cover this soon
Just a reflection on yesterday
If he does run at Newmarket
With 1 run in the last 141 days
He could well be on the bounce
I won't be holding it against him
His profile is like the 2005 winner
Who also ran in yesterdays trial
Profile wise he may end up fine
It depends partly on his weight
How far will the weights will rise
The Draw will be important too
And it should also be pointed out
His trainer has the 2nd favourite
11 of the last 12 winners
Shared this basic profile
Male Horses
Aged 3-4-5-6-7
Raced within 100 days
8st 4lbs to 9st 9lbs
Between 5 and 26 runs
Coming from 8f to 10f
Beaten under 11 lengths
Rated between 87-107
Coming from Class 3 +
MUJTABA does fit this
Ante Post Statistics
Saturday
Doncaster 1.45pm
13/2 Whenthedealinsdone 10/1 Chipstead
10/1 Juan Les Pins 10/1 Tanmawwy 12/1 Bergerac
14/1 Ancient Times 14/1 Burning Cash
14/1 Makanah 14/1 Dakota Gold 14/1 Intrinsic Bond
14/1 Night On Earth 16/1 Dusky Lord 16/1 Ghathanfar
16/1 Isle Of Lismore 16/1 Lequinto 16/1 Lord Riddiford
20/1 Hyperfocus 20/1 Nomadic Empire 20/1 Runninwild
20/1 Recall The Show 20/1 Justanotherbottle
20/1 Seven Brothers 22/1 Call Me Ginger 25/1 Digital
25/1 Count D'orsay 25/1 Faustus 25/1 Good Earth
25/1 Only Spoofing 25/1 Raatea 25/1 Stone Of Destiny
28/1 Sunday Sovereign 33/1 Ava Go Joe 33/1 Method
33/1 Beyond Equal 33/1 Project Dante 33/1 Motagally
33/1 Significantly 33/1 Total Commitment 33/1 Tyger Bay
40/1 Treacherous 40/1 Sound Reason 50/1 Zargun
50/1 Atalanta's Boy
Portland Handicap
Race Statistics
The last 19 winners
Had the following draws
5 18 14 18 22 12 10 15 12 21
15 16 18 21 5 5 13 15 20 9 8
Avoid horses drawn 1-2-3-4
The last 18 years they are 0-88
Since 2002
Every Portland winner
Ran within the previous 46 days
3 year olds
Have a 1-54 record since 2001
That sole winner was in 2019
4 year olds
Won 5 races since 2002
Had the following career runs
13 9 7 17 18
Had the following runs that year
5 4 3 6 9
Had the following absences
24 24 42 24 18 days
Won from the following ratings
102 95 100 96 100
Won from the following draws
5 12 5 12 14
4yo's winning last time are 0-24
4yo's with over 18 runs are 0-38
All came from Class 2 handicaps
Those from lower grades 0-22
5 year olds
Had the following career runs
26 29 30 24 19 6 8 20 31
Had the following runs that year
5 8 6 6 3 5 5 4 8
Had the following absences
20 46 14 19 28 7 35 28 15 days
Won from the following ratings
93 99 101 97 97 96 100 95
Won from the following draws
18 18 22 14 20 19 6 17 14
6 year olds
Have a 0-78 record since 1997
Horses aged 6 or more
Have a 1-181 record since 1997
Since 2005 they are 1-106
Horses aged 6+ from 5f races
Absent over 3 days are 0-78
Fillies have a 1-62 record
The winner a 4yo filly in 2013
Lighter weights struggle
Horses with 8st 8lbs or less
Have a 0-52 record since 2002
Avoid 1-2 runs that season
Horses from Pattern races 1-44
That winner ran 3 days before
No winners came from 7f or 8f
Horses just beaten12+ Lengths
Have not won this in decades
Colts are 0-19 in recent years