Today's Best Bet
Doncaster 3.35
BOUNCE THE BLUES 5/1-11/2 Each Way
Preview Selections
Doncaster 1.50
4.00 Each Way Tipperary Tiger 7/1-15/2
2.00 Win Bet Sound Of Iona 7/2-4/1
Doncaster 2.25
6.00 Win Bet Indian Dream 4/1
4.00 Win Bet Modern Dancer 11/8-6/4
Doncaster 3.00
Fiftyshadesaresdev 14/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5
Doncaster 3.35
Bounce The Blues 5/1-11/2 Each Way
Doncaster 4.10
King Of Stars 15/2-8/1 Each Way
Doncaster 5.20
Just Fine 5/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Today's Message
Doncaster starts today
Quite a tasty card there
Not covering other tracks
But I do like this message
Future Betting Angles
Will be returning tomorrow
The cloud is starting to clear
May bring it back with a rant
These 2 options for best bet
Doncaster 3.35
BOUNCE THE BLUES 5/1-11/2 Each Way
Doncaster 5.20
JUST FINE 5/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Both have their assets
Both have some flaws
Similar rewards in play
Close call
But going with this one
Today's Best Bet
Doncaster 3.35
BOUNCE THE BLUES 5/1-11/2 Each Way
Underneath The Message
Interesting card
Staking choices all the way
Some races can be made safer
Others can be made far riskier
For those preferring more reward
Doncaster 1.50
4.00 Each Way Tipperary Tiger 7/1-15/2
2.00 Win Bet Sound Of Iona 7/2-4/1
Went for safety in this race
The saver is a must bet here
Expecting her to win nicely
But had to reduce her to saver
Having her 4th run in 7 days
Will probably have a small bet
Around £16 win and £4 saver
Doncaster 2.25
6.00 Win Bet Indian Dream 4/1
4.00 Win Bet Modern Dancer 11/8-6/4
My angles have bullied me
Into this split win bet and saver
I wanted to go a different way
If you gave me a £10 free bet
Told me to stake this safely
£4 Win Modern Dancer 6/4
£6 Place Greys Monument 1/1
That differs from the main bet
I am not going to have this bet
Just felt more relaxed about it
Will be cheering on the official bet
Doncaster 3.00
Fiftyshadesaresdev 14/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Highly likely I have this wrong
I'm happy to write this race off
If I was being more aggressive
Could have gone £3 each way
And had a £4 saver place bet
But I'd be guessing which one
Instinct tells me this is flawed
He is 25/1 on Betfair to win this
That's worth a £2 maximum stake
Doncaster 3.35
BOUNCE THE BLUES 5/1
Each Way
Like the bet a lot
But shortlisted 4 horses
All of these younger types
Very hopeful but realistic
Personally the place side
Maybe more riskier than ideal
Going to have £20 around 11/2
Doncaster 4.10
King Of Stars 15/2-8/1 Each Way
We are on a drifter here
Right or wrong that worries me
No plans to bet him each way
Could have a win bet and saver
Possibly on favourite Manaccan
But as I type this I am thinking
If you gave me a free bet
I would rather go this way
6 Win Bet King Of Stars 15/2-8/1
4 Place Bet Union Court 13/8
I wont be having any bet in this
Doncaster 5.20
Just Fine 5/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Not an easy race for sure
I think his chance depends
On whether his main rivals
Are having prep races or not
Not sure. Having £15 win bet
Yesterday's Summary
Short reduced 2 race message
But we had a very good winner
Menalippe drifted out 9/1-12/1
Could have got a lot better too
Did us proud with a gutsy victory
Had some doubts once drifting
But a day with limited coverage
I was happy to get a good winner
The other race did not work out
Although it was a falsely run race
Suspect we'd have lost anyway
Shame to offer just two previews
But made the best of what we had
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Doncaster 1.50
4/1 Sound Of Iona, 5/1 Roach Power,
7/1 Stone Of Destiny, 15/2 Tipperary Tiger
8/1 Temple Bruer, The Green Man, 9/1 Intervention
14/1 Glorious Rio, 14/1 Treacherous, 20/1 Embour
20/1 Favourite Child, Magical Max, 25/1 Dark Shot
33/1 40/1 Barbill, Tyger Bay.
6f Handicap
This race stopped in 2020
Had a year off and is now back
But as an Apprentice Handicap
Looking at the field
The obvious issue in my view
Is so many horses with fit profiles
SOUND OF IONA is a mare
By far and away the fittest profile
She has raced 3 times in 7 days
Highly unusual likely significant
But is that in a good or bad way ?
Hard to know there is the theory
That 4 runs in a short time is bad
Statistically there is no clear answer
I would see her as least a saver bet
There are 11 horses in this race
With at least 2 runs since August
That's a lot suspect one may win
Opposing the following horses
Who don't have two recent runs
STONE OF DESTINY
TIPPERARY TIGER
FAVOURITE CHILD
DARK SHOT
BARBILL
MAGICAL MAX
TREACHEROUS does have 2 runs
But drawn 16 puts me off him a bit
And he is an 8yo up in distance
ROACH POWER is a 3 year old
Felt he was unsafe down from 7f
When he also has stall 1 as well
THE GREEN MAN is a 3yo
Has the worst jockey in the race
EMBOUR is 7 and not first choice
Too many have more recent runs
TYGER BAY has the same problem
GLORIOUS RIO is unsuitable
Having won a 5f race last time out
Never won in class or off his rating
INTERVENTION comes here W W
He has just won 2 small field races
Following a long 115 day absence
This is a lifetime career mark now
He is 0-24 in this class and higher
Recent run will help not discounted
But not enough to be the selection
Shortlist
SOUND OF IONA
TEMPLE BRUER
TIPPERARY TIGER
TEMPLE BRUER has a sound chance
No statistical flaws and running very well
But ground and stable are the worry
SOUND OF IONA is a must saver bet
TIPPERARY TIGER fails an earlier stat
But forgivably only by a couple of days
He was unlucky at Haydock last time
Was badly drawn the time before that
Selection
4.00 Each Way TIPPERARY TIGER 7/1-15/2
2.00 Win Bet SOUND OF IONA 7/2-4/1
Doncaster 2.25
6/4 Modern Dancer, 4/1 Indian Dream
7/1 Grey's Monument, 15/2 Hour By Hour, 9/1 Utilis
10/1 Out Of Shadows, 11/1 Finn's Charm
16/1 Spirit In My Soul, 20/1 There's The Door.
8f Nursery
Trappy race
MODERN DANCER has 2 runs
No major profile concerns here
Comes from a big stable as well
But he is a short price around 6/4
I'd see him as the sensible saver
Looking for the win part of the bet
FINN'S CHARM has topweight
Last time well beaten in listed class
Not really a safe enough profile
THERE'S THE DOOR is similar
UTLIS started 40/1 last time out
In this grade thats a warning sign
SPIRIT IN MY SOUL was 100/1
OUT OF SHADOWS might win
But from a very unreliable stable
He has to find more to take this
HOUR BY HOUR has 4 races
He comes from only a Class 5
This a 3 grade step up in class
INDIAN DREAM is now rated 87
Obvious candidate as selection
GREY'S MONUMENT is another
He has less experience behind him
Can he improve enough to win this
Getting weight from Indian Dream
Would not surprise me if he did
Not normally drawn to this stable
But he has just ran 3rd at Ffos Las
On softer ground when drawn 1
On the back of 100 days absence
I was steering towards him
But this statistic bothers me
August September October
Nurseries on turf
Run in Class 3 or higher
Any distance
Horses with 3 runs
Just 1 run in 3 months
Running within 6 weeks
Have a 0-35 record in them
GREY'S MONUMENT fails this
Dilemma being will he bounce ?
Very reluctantly
My angles force a switch
Selection
6.00 Win Bet INDIAN DREAM 4/1
4.00 Win Bet MODERN DANCER 11/8-6/4
Doncaster 3.00
4/1 Shine On Brendan, 7/1 Codify, 7/1 Temper Trap
8/1 Arranmore, Sandy Paradise, 9/1 Dougies Dream
10/1 Nurseclaire, 12/1 Absolute Dream, Fiftyshadesaresdev
12/1 Strangerontheshore, 14/1 Yoshimi, Youarenotforgiven
20/1 Dogged, 20/1 Ebury, 20/1 Night Bear, 40/1 Lednikov
100/1 Rhyme Scheme.
Legends Classified Stakes (8f)
This race started in 2010
10 of the 12 renewals
Went to horses aged 3-4
Horses aged 5 or more
Have a weak 2-79 record
Those with 11st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-34 record in this
YOSHIMI one that fails this
EBURY another failing this
It's the older exposed horses
Who have the worse record
ABSOLUTE DREAM does too
He is 0-14 over this trip or more
Most winners had 5-22 races
Horses with 22 + runs are 1-73
The following horses fail this
ABSOLUTE DREAM
EBURY
ARRANMORE
DOGGED
TEMPER TRAP
STRANGERONTHESHORE
SHINE ON BRENDAN
SHINE ON BRENDAN a 5yo
Fails this and starts favourite
Kieran Fallon senior rides him
He is 57 years old these days
Not sure how big a factor it is
The Draw may be important
Highest draws best avoided
Unless a horse is lightly raced
Go back to 2005
Doncaster 8f races
Under 19 runners
Horses with over 11 runs
Drawn in stall 12 or higher
Have a poor 1-86 record
They are 0-54 since 2013
The following horses fail this
STRANGERONTHESHORE
DOGGED
NIGHT BEAR
ARRANMORE
LEDNIKOV is absent too long
CODIFY has 1 run in 69 days
That would concern me here
12 past renewals show us
Horses with 1 run in 2 months
Have a 0-19 record in this race
That plays into being underraced
CODIFY fails this 0-19 statistic
YOUARENOTFORGIVEN does
NURSECLAIRE is a 3yo filly
We have had two winning this
But they came down in distance
NURSECLAIR sets up from 7f
Don't want her on that profile
Shortlist
SANDY PARADISE
FIFTYSHADESARESDEV
DOUGIES DREAM
SANDY PARADISE is a 3yo
Both fit and running nicely
My only concern 6 days off
Very few win with recent runs
All 12 horses aged 3 like him
Failed running within 13 days
DOUGIES DREAM another 3yo
Ran 11 days ago still unexposed
FIFTYSHADESARESDEV a 3yo
Enough positives to shortlist
Whilst unconvincing and drifting
We are getting a generous price
Nasty race
Angles are wound up tightly
Could easily go down wrong path
Should we accept the statistic
That shows horses with recent runs
Running in the last 13 days
Have a poor 1-53 record in this
Are they here as an afterthought ?
Are you better off with laid out types
Not sure these issues are murky
But taking a chance at decent odds
Selection
FIFTYSHADESARESDEV 16/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5
Doncaster 3.35
4/1 Umm Kulthum, 9/2 Heredia, 5/1 Adaay In Asia
5/1 Bounce The Blues, 5/1 Novemba, 8/1 Nizaaka
9/1 Nectaris, 16/1 Divine Magic, 33/1 Honey Sweet
33/1 Romantic Rival, Sunset Bay.
Sceptre Stakes
7f Group for fillies (7f)
Market seems confused
Past renewals show
Horse aged 3 are 17-209
Horse aged 4 are 2-63
Horses aged 5 are 3-20
Horses aged 4
Have achieved the least
With a modest 2-63 record
No 4 year old has won
Coming from 6f or shorter (0-16)
UMM KULTHUM faces this
She has the highest draw
She has the longest absence
Might win but not my choice
No 4 year old has won
With 10 or more career runs
All 40 that tried to win failed
The following horses fail this
DIVINE MAGIC
SUNSET BAY
NIZAAKA
NOVEMBA
NOVEMBA only fails
If you include European form
Hard to rate down in distance
But official ratings have her top
ROMANTIC RIVAL a 4yo
Looks underraced to me
HONEY STREET from 6f
Would not be first choice
Last years winner
Was the first drawn very low
Go back to 1997
Horses drawn 1 are 1-25
Horses drawn 2 are 0-25
ADAAY IN ASIA is drawn 2
My biggest worry with her
She comes from a handicap
No other horses are doing this
Horses from handicaps 5-64
Those with over 11 career runs
Have a 0-24 record in this race
ADAAY IN ASIA fails this with 17
Not got past handicaps in 17 runs
That would put me off her a little
Shortlist
NECTARIS an Irish 3yo
Comes here from a French race
Hard to rule in or out really
NOVEMBA the favourite
Have to see her as a neutral
HEREDIA is a 3yo
Comes from a good trial race
She is the lightest raced here
Statistically her profile is fine
Had a bad draw at Goodwood
BOUNCE THE BLUES is a 5yo
Not too worried about her age
Andrew Balding her trainer
Won this with 5yo's in 2018-2020
One of them down in trip like her
There is growing evidence now
Bounce The Blues doesn't stay 8f
Today's trip may well be her best
She failed over a mile last time
Held up and drawn 1 at Sandown
Impossible draw at Goodwood
Failed a 0-70 generic draw stat
She was underraced before that
Has not been fit for many races
My only concern
I've had to shortlist 4 horses
And it does look competitive
Selection
BOUNCE THE BLUES 5/1
Each Way
Doncaster 4.10
9/4 Manaccan, 5/2 Equilateral, 11/2 King Of Stars
8/1 Mo Celita, 8/1 Union Court, 11/1 Lovely Mana
16/1 Guilded, 20/1 Attagirl, 25/1
Scarbrough Stakes
Listed Race (5f)
No 2yo has won this
Since records began in 1983
Since 1997 all 13 that tried lost
One day a 2yo will manage it
Until they do they are ignored
UNION COURT is a 2yo
CAN TO CAN is a 2yo
MO CELITA is also rejected
She's raced once in 110 days
Wanted more for an older filly
ATTAGIRL is a 3yo filly
Unsafe with 1 run in 88 days
GILDED comes from handicaps
3 year olds doing that are 0-16
Horses aged 3
Have a modest 4-54 record
None had more than 13 runs
LOVELY MANA has 21 races
Looks too exposed as a 3yo
Suspect the market is right
Shortlist
MANACCAN
EQUILATERAL
KING OF STARS
EQUILATERAL is a 7yo
Will 40 days off matter ?
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 17 days
Won just 1 renewal (1-37)
So it could be a factor
He has won this race before
Has probably been laid out
Stables won it 3 times recently
KING OF STARS in contrast
Has the fittest profile of these
The trial race he comes from
Provides a 2-33 record in this
It comes too soon for some
But a couple have managed it
MANACCAN is a 3 year old
Horses aged 3 down in trip
Have a 1-13 record in this
That winner absent longer
Horses aged 3
Running within 18 days
Have a 0-19 record in this
MANACCAN ran 11 days ago
So is not a perfect match
Going to have to guess here
EQUILATERAL is drawn 9 of 9
Go back to 1997
Doncaster 5f races
Class 3 or higher
Under 13 runners
Horses aged 4 or more
Drawn 9 or higher
Have a 0-55 record in them
EQUILATERAL fails this
Widest draw could be an issue
Pivoting to a different strategy
MANACCAN could be a saver
If we wanted a win and saver bet
That may well be the best option
KING OF STARS each way
Was the alternative bet to go for
Last time out
He had a difficult draw
At York had an impossible one
Better drawn today fittest profile
Going to risk him each way
Selection
KING OF STARS 15/2-8/1 Each Way
Doncaster 5.20
7/2 Mujtaba, 5/1 Just Fine, 11/2 Legend Of Dubai
7/1 Bell Rock, 9/1 Vulcan, 10/1 Bright Start
10/1 Cormier, 10/1 Forest Falcon, 11/1 Faylaq
11/1 Isla Kai, 16/1 King Triton, 28/1 Palavecino
10f Handicap
This is a race
That could have a bearing
In next months Cambridgeshire
Quality horses
Statistics say oppose elders
Horses aged 6 or more
Have a poor record in this
The following fail this angle
BELL ROCK
PALAVECINO
CORMIER
FAYLAQ
FORST FALCON is topweight
Combined with a recent thrashing
Can not see a good enough case
KING TRITON has 122 days off
From a small stable hard to like
BRIGHT SPARK 194 days off
Quite happy to oppose this 5yo
ISLA KAI is a 4 year old
He is coming up in distance
Only 1 winner his age did that
That horse had only 5 races
ISLA KAI has had 14 races
Might win but is not a match
VULCAN has plenty to prove
He is on a career high mark
He has never won in this class
He will need a lifetime best here
On the back of 57 days absence
MUJTABA
Sexy horse with 124 days off
The 2007 and 2009 winners
Had 5 runs like him off months
I have no worries about his break
He has raced twice this season
Failed serious statistics both times
He is weak in the market for this
Prompting the obvious question
Do they want to win
With the Cambridgeshire the target
Possibly not it would harm him
And push his weight up for that
That is why he is not selected
LEGEND OF DUBAI is similar
Has a low Cambridgeshire weight
Will he want a weight rise for that ?
He could be having a prep race
Every chance if that's not the case
JUST FINE
Not in the Cambridgeshire
Removes and doubt from him
And if any of his rivals are here
To have a prep run for Newmarket
Then his chance has to increase
Selection
JUST FINE 5/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Just watched Bounced the Blues come in. Excellent analysis John, Thank you!
Menilippe was available at 14’s BET365 bout 12:30 yesterday. I had it with 3 others in a yankee. 2 winners, the other winner Youngest @ 14’s too Backed into 7’s.. Would have been a huge win if just 1 more had come in. Ah well.
Good luck..