Today's Best Bet

Chelmsford 6.30

FANGORN 9/1-10/1 Each Way

Preview Selections

Thurles 2.00

£8.00 Win Bet Delightful 7/4-15/8

£2.00 Win Bet Foniska 3/1-7/2

Ayr 3.00

Aberama Gold 7/1

Each Way

Thurles 3.10

£5.00 Win Bet Fastman 6/1-11/2

£5.00 Place Bet Stormie Outlook 11/10

Worcester 4.30

Red Happy 11/4-5/2

Win Bet

Chelmsford 6.00

Pussycat Eyes 7/4

Win Bet

Chelmsford 6.30

Fangorn 10/1-9/1

Each Way

Today's Message

6 Previews

There are two horses today

Both are quite similar bets

Both well placed topweights

Class horses in their races

Hoping they will show this

Ayr 3.00

ABERAMA GOLD 13/2-6/1 Each Way

Chelmsford 6.30

FANGORN 9/1-10/1 Each Way

Only 3 places in each race

But you can manipulate this

And get 4 places on Betfair

Having win and place bets

I would advise that strategy

The rest of today's message

Interesting window dressing

ABERAMA GOLD feels safer

In terms of most likely to perform

But so are his opposition as well

And there are more direct threats

FANGORN has far less to beat

But he is much less reliable too

Thought about a staked bet

But hard to split the pair of them

Ayr has gone to heavy ground

ABERAMA GOLD has 11st 12lbs

It could make things complicated

FANGORN runs on the sand

Could be in danger with him

Of wearing rose tinted specs

Not may can see what I can

Or at least what I think I see

Chances of me overrating him

If I did chose the wrong one

It would be rather annoying

Asked my statistics

To find one last and final angle

To try and separate this pair

They have managed that

The sand was their decision

Today's Best Bet

Chelmsford 6.30

FANGORN 9/1-10/1 Each Way

Underneath The Message

Thurles 2.00

£8.00 Win Bet Delightful 7/4-15/8

£2.00 Win Bet Foniska 3/1-7/2

It has crossed my mind

Delightful each way 7/4-2/1

Not ruled that out quite yet

When I have these stakes

Especially when Aidan trains

They string more than usual

Equally I like the advised bet

Could have gone with Fonika

Saving on Delightful instead

I fancy others bets a bit more

So probably won't risk this

Ayr 3.00

Aberama Gold 7/1

£40 Win Bet

Chelmsford 6.30

Fangorn 9/1-10/1

£30 Win Bet

Yesterday's Summary

Covered 4 previews yesterday

Complete Fiction was beaten

Salt Lake City managed to win

Albeit only in a part staked bet

Wasn't an ambitious message

The best bet not being beaten

Was the most important factor

Jacks Profit managed to do this

Finishing a comfortable second

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Thurles 2.00

15/8 Delightful, 5/2 Pink Sorrel, 3/1 Foniska

7/1 Savethelastdance, 10/1 Drummin Life, Skyquake

20/1 Fuli, 25/1 Golden Spangle, 33/1 Lady Allessia.

2yo Fillies maiden 8f

DELIGHFUL from Aidan

Should go close and can win

Her danger may be Foniska

Both twice raced Galileo fillies

PINK SORREL is 2nd favourite

She has raced only once at 50/1

Promising yes but once at 50/1

She is also drawn in stall 9 of 9

There are few flat races here

But if you look at all of these

High draws have done badly

Every single flat race here

Going back 13 years to 2009

With under 12 runners

Over this any any distance

No horses have won any

Drawn in stall 8 or higher

Not many tried to be fair

But high draws and not good

Can not feel the love for her

SAVETHELASTDANCE also fails

She is unraced drawn in stall 8

Looks the O'Brien second string

Expecting one or two to win

DELIGHFUL

FONISKA

DELIGHFUL is first choice

But you could bet them both

And still get 5/4 about Delightful

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet DELIGHTFUL 7/4-15/8

£2.00 Win Bet FONISKA 3/1-7/2

Ayr 3.00

3/1 Maple Jack, 5/1 Woven, 6/1 Some Nightmare

8/1 Aberama Gold, Classy Al, 10/1 Pearl Of Qatar

12/1 Black Friday, 12/1 Iris Dancer, 12/1 Tipperary Tiger

16/1 After John, 16/1 Little Miss Dynamo.

6f Handicap

October has 140 similar races

WOVEN is an exposed 6yo

He's raced once in 68 days

His draw is a problem too

Go back to 2010

Ayr 6f Handicaps

Under 12 runners

Horses drawn 10 or more

Absent more than 7 days

Have a weak 0-69 record

WOVEN fails this statistic

PEARL OF QATAR does too

Go back to 1997

Horses aged 4 or more

Absent more than 7 days

Drawn 10 or higher are 0-42

WOVEN fails this statistic

PEARL OF QATAR does too

LITTLE MISS DYNAMO a 3yo filly

Was beaten too far last time out

AFTER JOHN has 104 days off

IRIS DANCER is only a 3yo filly

Too many horses ahead of her

140 similar races

Horses aged 5 or more

Winning over 5f last time

Have a 0-18 record in them

SOME NIGHTMARE did this

He is also going up in class

CLASSY AL has a recent win

That was in 2 grades lower

It was also over a furlong more

Makes him unusual not negative

Especially as it was a lifetime best

MAPLE JACK is hard to read

Lightly raced 4yo won recently

But he only has 8 career runs

He's raced once in only 73 days

Can find some similar 4 year olds

But none that won last time out

Not a negative would see him

More as a neutral positive

BLACK FRIDAY has a chance

One of the classier types in this

Would not be a surprise winner

TIPPERARY TIGER Is running well

Badly drawn at Hamilton in July

Unlucky at Haydock next time out

Since run well in massive fields

Not well drawn last time out either

He was 28/1 to win Ayr's Bronze Cup

ABERAMA GOLD shorter at 10/1

To win Ayr's classier Silver Cup

They both carried the same weight

ABERAMA GOLD did better as well

Had to do that from a horrible draw

Generously dropped 3lbs for that

His lowest rating since he was a 2yo

He could outclass this opposition

Selection

ABERAMA GOLD 7/1 Each Way

Thurles 3.10

11/2 Qaabil, 13/2 Fastman, 13/2 Lucky Queen

7/1 Tara Power, 8/1 Indiana Grey, 8/1 Stormie Outlook

8/1Take My Hand, 10/1 Speckled Meadow, 12/1 Han Solo

12/1 Hot Bell, 12/1 The Dazzer, 20/1 Pink Socks

25/1 Simply Sideways, 25/1 Wrist Art.

8f Handicap

Nasty looking race

Maybe a bit too difficult

Opposing the highest draws

No horse has won any race

At this track over any trip

When drawn 14 or higher

In the previous 13 seasons

Obviously reserves affect this

But happy to oppose this pair

Who have the highest draws

HAN SOLO

HOT BELL

Several of these

Offer us unsafe profiles

Looking short of fitness

Taking out these horses

PINK SOCKS

SIMPLE SIDEWAYS

WRIST ART

SPECKLED MEADOW

THE DAZZLER may be another

Having raced once in 124 days

QAABIL has an unusual profile

Has raced just once in 14 months

Not a negative but not first choice

If we get the above right

FASTMAN rated 70

STORMIE OUTLOOK rated 63

Only have a 0-57 class field to beat

TARA POWER who is rated just 54

Does not have the best of draws

INDIANA GREY won recently

She has not got the best of draws

Brings no backclass to the race

Several have recent runs

Which tempers confidence a bit

But staying with the higher weights

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet FASTMAN 6/1-11/2

£5.00 Place Bet STORMIE OUTLOOK 11/10

Worcester 4.30

5/4 Shearer, 15/8 High Stakes

7/2 Red Happy, 8/1 Big Nasty.

Novice Hurdle 2m 7f

Small field any could win this

SHEARER from Paul Nicholls might

But he is a future chasing prospect

This could easily be a prep race

No statistical negatives

But one positive profile

RED HAPPY

October Novice Hurdles 3m

Show horses aged 5

Winning last time out

Over 2m 4f or further

Running within 5 weeks

Have a pretty smart 5-8 record

RED HAPPY has this profile

He has to be the selection

Not that enthusiastic myself

David Pipe and a short price

Just pointing out his profile

Suggests he should be the bet

Selection

RED HAPPY 11/4-5/2 Win Bet

Chelmsford 6.00

5/4 Mashaaer, 5/2 Pussycat Eyes, 4/1 Rakurai

8/1 Dulcet Spirit, 12/1 Victoria Falls, 25/1 Endofastorm

40/1 Apfelstrudel, Bon Secret, 100/1 Cendrillon.

3yo Fillies Maiden 7f

MASHAAER sets the standard

She has already had 8 races

These runs were all over further

She may well benefit from this trip

She faces inexperienced horses

RAKURAI just one run last year

Top stable but not being backed

PUSSYCAT EYES has raced once

Promising sort could easily go in

MASHAAER has done far more

I was going to select her to win

But despite her achievements

Decided she was a banana skin

Could look stupid opposing her

But her figures have now peaked

She is not progressive nowadays

Beaten by an unraced horse here

Trained by Pussycat Eyes trainer

She should have won before now

My angles show

October and November

3yo Fillies maidens

Any distance

Horses with over 6 runs

Have a modest 1-65 record

MASHAAER fails this statistic

For this reason

And her stable out of form too

And the fact her main danger

PUSSYCAT EYES cost 340k

Comes from a high class owner

Decided to pivot from the favourite

Selection

PUSSYCAT EYES 7/4 Win Bet

Chelmsford 6.30

5/2 Dors Toyboy, 4/1 Prince Of Flight, 5/1 Nat Love

13/2 Baileys Liberty, 10/1 Boadicea Belle, Riley's Positano

12/1 Capla Spirit, 14/1 Fangorn, 16/1 Superstar Dj

20/1 Sky Storm.

7f Handicap

Horses rated 0-66

Right or wrong

Took the view two horses

Are doubtful stayers in this

CAPLA SPIRIT is one of them

PRINCE OF FLIGHT is another

If I am right about stamina

And can get SKY STORM beat

Which should be a formality really

And we can beat Nat Love as well

On the grounds he is underraced

NAT LOVE has ran once in a year

Starting 33/1 and well beaten too

Then the race shape changes

FANGORN is the topweight

Only faces a 0-64 class field

With many weak profiles in it

Several of the lightweights

Look very difficult to like here

SUPERSTAR DJ has 4 runs

Only 2 in the last 13 months

His figures are class 6 at best

RILES POSITANO has 4 runs

She is not doing enough now

BOADICEA BELLE is rated 60

She is a filly with 69 days off

She is going up in distance too

The stable are also running cold

BAILEYS LIBERTY is a 3yo filly

She is coming from a 6f race

Having had 16 career starts

October has 201 of these races

3yo fillies

Coming from 6f races

Have a poor 4-132 record

Those with over 10 races

Have a 1-49 record

Those running within 70 days

Have a 0-4 record in them

BAILEYS LIBERTY fails this angle

3yo fillies

Coming from 6f races

Those with over 5 races

Running within 41 days

Have a 0-83 record in them

BAILEYS LIBERTY fails this too

That leaves 2 horses

DORS TOYBOY one of those

Exposed with 33 career starts

Never been rated higher than 60

Clear limitations given so exposed

So we are back to the topweight

FANGORN 9/1-10/1

Racing Post are critical

They suggest he is out of form

They could well be right

Watched his last run

Looks a big strong horse

He was running a good race

But was hampered on the inside

Losing all of his momentum

Forget his penultimate run

Outclassed in 3 grades higher

His run before that

When only 11th at Kempton

Could also be excused

May have gone off too quickly

Can't be sure

It is a bit of a leap of faith

But he is the class horse

Lots of negatives around him

Most career runs in better grades

He could be well placed here

Selection

FANGORN 9/1-10/1

Each Way

FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

If anyone e-mailed me

In the previous 36 hours

I have not received them

Will probably get a load

Dumped in one go soon

But my email is down

Hopefully Mick will read this

And sort it as he usually does

Short Term Plan

Messages planned

Up to and including Monday 10th

Tuesday 11th has to be a day off

I have a funeral to go to that day

Expecting a message Wednesday

And through to end of next week

Tomorrow

Newmarket 1.50

Cornwallis Stakes

13/8 Prince Of Pillo 5/1 Crispy Cat 6/1 Rogue Spirit

7/1 Wodao 10/1 Maylandsea 10/1 Squealer

12/1 Rumstar 12/1 Clearpoint 14/1 Remarkable Force

25/1 Miss Attitude 33/1 Lady Hamana 50/1 Lost Angel

5f Group race

Ideal profile

Colt or a Filly

Rated 94 or higher

3-9 career starts

Coming from pattern races

Beaten under 9 lengths last time

At least 2 runs in the last 12 weeks

Starting 16/1 or shorter last time

The angles for this race

Point specifically to 2 horses

PRINCE OF PILLO 13/8

CRISPY CAT 5/1

Should have options tomorrow

CRISPY CAT each way possibly

Alternately could be a win bet

With Prince Of Pillo the saver

Statistically and on official ratings

There does seem some clear water

Between this pair and the others

Have not done the race properly

May yet find problems with either

But this looks a provisional strategy

Saturday

Chepstow

Some say it is the opening day

Of a new National Hunt season

But it doesn't make any sense

The National hunt never stops

This is not a significant meeting

Will be surprised if I find much

Saturday

Cesarewitch

Likely to dump this race

Another absent winner last year

From from a national hunt stable

The race is ahead of my angles

Tail's chasing the dog in this race

No motivation to cover this race

Saturday

Newmarket 3.00

2/1 Sakheer, 3/1 Nostrum, 9/2 Naval Power

7/1 Chaldean, 10/1 Aesop's Fables, 11/1 Auguste Rodin

16/1 Isaac Shelby, 33/1 Royal Scotsman, 33/1 Marbaan

33/1 Victoria Road, 40/1 Indestructible, 66/1 Charyn

Dewhurst Stakes

Historical race

NOSTRUM is highly regarded

He is pushing for favoritism

But he does look a little raw

24 of the last 26 winners

Had raced at least 3 times

NOSTRUM has raced twice

Horses with under 5 runs

Running within the last 20 days

Have a 0-35 record in this race

Plenty were fancied failing this

Maybe able to do something

May have to take him on here

NAVAL POWER drops from 8f

18 horses tried that only 1 won

That was the mighty Frankel

Much depends on the field size

What Aidan O'Brien is running

Saturday

York 3.15

Coral Sprint Trophy

10/1 Dusky Lord 10/1 Lethal Nymph 10/1 Lucky Man

10/1 Mr Wagyu 10/1 Laugh A Minute 11/1 Dakota Gold

12/1 Gulliver 14/1 Admiral D 16/1 Bergerac 16/1 Bielsa

16/1 Gisburn 16/1 Hyperfocus 16/1 Nomadic Empire

16/1 Popmaster 16/1 Shining Blue 16/1 Sterling Knight

16/1 Tanmawwy 16/1 Wowzers 16/1 Abolish

18/1 Chiefofchiefs 18/1 Silver Samurai 18/1 Strike Red

18/1 Air Raid 20/1 Aplomb 20/1 Snash 20/1 Spangled Mac

20/1 Zarzyni 20/1 Abduction 25/1 Apollo One

25/1 International Girl 25/1 It Just Takes Time 25/1 Motagally

Target race for Saturday

Declarations later today

The draw will have a big say

There will be lots of negatives

Ran a few early angles

Ideal Profile

9 of the last 10 winners

Had the following profile

Horses aged 3-4-5-6

Rated 96 or higher

8st 12lbs or more

Running within 56 days

2 + runs in the last 12 weeks

Coming from 5f 6f 7f

Not Listed or Group 2-3 races

Drawn in stalls 19 or lower

This would be my early forecast

For a possible shortlist on the day

Will be able to reduce these down

10/1 Dusky Lord

16/1 Popmaster

16/1 Shining Blue

16/1 Bergerac

10/1 Lucky Man

18/1 Silver Samurai

20/1 Spangled Mac

Saturday

Newmarket 4.50

Boadicea Stakes

Likely to cover this race

Has some long term angles

No declarations of draw yet

No ante post markets either

Early shortlist would be this

Pink Crystal

Nizaaka

Primo Bacio

Tenaya Canyon

Another Romance

Azure Blue

Corazon

Will be able to narrow that down