Sorry tech probs
Preview Selections
Brighton 1.00
£4.50 Each Way Headshot 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet Bass Strait10/1
Brighton 2.40
Canagat 3/1 -11/4
Win Bet
Brighton 3.10
Temur Khan 4/1
Each Way
Brighton 4.15
£5.00 Win Bet Haveoneyerself 7/2
£5.00 Place Bet Glamorous Force 4/5
Newton Abbot 4.30
£6.00 Win Bet Getaman 4/1
£4.00 Win Bet Coal Stock 6/4
Galway 4.40
Platinumcard 5/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Today's Message
First message of the week
St Leger festival at Doncaster
Messages through to Sunday
Failed again at the weekend
To stop this poor account run
Will deal with it later this week
What we're dealing with today
Scrappier lower grade racing
With a nasty weather forecast
Brighton should get hit later
Just planning to let it play out
And have a non committal day
Happy with the message now
But things are likely to change
No Official Best Bet
Underneath The Message
Brighton 2.40
CANAGAT 3/1 -11/4
If the race avoids collapsing
Will have £20 each way at 3/1 +
Most of the previews
Seem similar strength to me
Expecting a lot of change later
So a day to think on our feet
Doubt I will be doing much else
Yesterday's Summary
York got the better of us yesterday
Part of the damage was unforeseen
Some of it was clearly self inflicted
Silencer disappointed at short odds
Perhaps his last race affected him
But no way of knowing that before
Aphelios ran an excellent second
Stakes back and beaten by a neck
I'd have been happier if the winner
Was not one of my race negatives
But he led and that favoured him
Front runners looked advantaged
Pure Dreamer the main staked bet
Also suffered from the track bias
Missed the break was in last place
Too much to give older sprinters
A few lengths start on this track
That's why I feel he failed to cope
Putting that down as self inflicted
He was never going to lead anyway
We failed to consider that scenario
The Fontwell hurdle was a boil over
The two outsiders finished 1st-2nd
It really looked a falsely run novice
Secret Angel won well as the saver
Happy to have recovered the stake
Arabescato was a little bit unlucky
Held up last then finished strongly
But had to do that on the far rail
His jockey gave the ride his best
But managed 5th rather than 4th
Thought he deserved to be fourth
Forgivable ran an excellent race
Prominent and going quite nicely
But weakened in the last furlong
See this one as just self inflicted
Shortlisted + fancied the winner
Should have been the saver bet
Bad staking cost us in that race
Overall this was not very pleasant
Circumstances cost us in places
Other wounds were self inflicted
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Brighton 1.00
2/1 Platinum Prince, 9/2 Dawn View, 11/2 Celestial Point
11/2 Hellavapace, 9/1 Bass Strait, 10/1 Aiguillette
10/1 Regulator 14/1 Clashaniska, 20/1 Headshot,
33/1 Captain Sedgwick.
Apprentice Handicap 8f
Scrappy Handicap
PLATINUM PRINCE is favourite
Little doubt he has the ability to win
But he faces 96 days off the track
August and September
Apprentice Handicaps over 8f
Horses aged 4 or more
Absent more than 33 days
Have a 0-64 record in them
PLATINUM PRINCE fails this angle
CELESTIAL POINT fails this as well
Looking for a solid alternative
Who is currently running fit and well
CLASHANISKA doesn't appeal
Coming up from a 6f handicap
HELLAAVAPACE is a 4yo filly
She comes from a recent 7f race
Beaten over 7 lengths 5 days ago
Do not think she did enough there
REGULATOR wins on old form
But just 3 runs after a long break
Not enough sign of form or fitness
AIGUILLETTE is a 6 year old
He's raced once in 3 months now
Not a safe enough profile here
But he is stablemate of the favourite
Both come from a capable trainer
More than capable of plotting here
Shortlist
BASS STRAIT is a 3 year old
Ran quite well over 10f last time out
She was entitled to need that race
The 10f may have been too far for her
Having been so short of runs this year
This mile could be a good alternative
DAWN VIEW ticks a few boxes
Track form and is running well enough
HEADSHOT has some backclass
If he runs one of his better races
He is more than capable of winning
Selection
Small Stakes
£4.50 Each Way HEADSHOT 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet BASS STRAIT 10/1
Brighton 2.40
5/2 Red Alert, 7/2 Big Bard, 7/2 Canagat
6/1 Sapphire's Moon, 7/1 Riley's Positano, 12/1 Me Next
14/1 Ower Starlight, 16/1 Holdenhurst, 100/1 Vice Royal.
7f Handicap
Low grade race
Opposing a few of these
RILEY'S POSITANO has 3 runs
Would want more at this course
Not a negative but not selected
HOLDENHURST looks beatable
VICE ROYAL likely outclassed
September
Brighton has 19 of these races
All 19 winners prepped at 7f +
Horses from 6f or shorter
Have a 0-46 record in them
ME NEXT fails this 0-46 angle
Opposing her as a 3yo filly from 6f
OWER STARLIGHT fails this angle
She is a 4yo filly looking underraced
She has not reached form or fitness
BIG BARD comes from a 6f handicap
Horses doing this are 0-46 at Brighton
He's raced just the once in 72 days
Drawn much more to other profiles
RED ALERT is up in distance
He too fails this 0-46 statistic
But he is fit and the class horse
But he is also drifting in the market
SAPPHIRE'S MOON is limited
But he is both fit and running well
CANAGAT should have a big chance
This is a big drop in class for him
Recent races were 0-77 0-79 0-72 class
Today he faces only a 0-61 class handicap
And he is only 4th in the weights as well
This is the lowest class of race
He has ever ran in before in 26 races
He could outclass this opposition
Selection
CANAGAT 3/1 -11/4
Win Bet
Brighton 3.10
5/2 Silver Bubble, 7/2 Temur Khan, 4/1 Hellavaheart
9/2 It's How We Roll, 10/1 Go On Gal, 10/1 Junoesque
16/1 Bascinet, 20/1 Miss Tiki, 25/1 Urban Forest
33/1 Coul Universe.
12f Handicap
Plenty of these are opposable
Failing for fitness
Lacking enough class
Scoring poor numbers
No interest in the following
MISS TIKI
COUL UNIVERSE
URBAN FOREST
GO ON GAL
BASCINET
IT'S HOW WE ROLL is 8 years old
Won last time out but 5 weeks ago
August September
7f Handicaps
Class 6 races
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent over 31 days
Have a 0-54 record in them
IT'S HOW WE ROLL fails this
SILVER BUBBLE is favourite
She is an in form 4 year old filly
What bothers me about her
She is drawn in stall 10 of 10
There maybe a 12f draw bias
There is a quick early turn
Maybe highest draw is cut off
Go back 22 years to 2000
Brighton 12f races
Under 11 runners
Horses drawn 10
Have a 0-25 record
The last winner to do this
Was 23 years ago back in 1999
When you also consider stall 9
Has a poor 2-55 return in 22 years
You start to see that bias more
Not going to risk him drawn 10
Shortlist
HELLAVAHEART 3YO
JUNOESQUE 8YO
TEMUR KHAN 4YO
Forced to eliminate one
JUNOEQUE is an 8yo mare
Staying with the younger horses
HELLAVAHEART appeals each way
TEMUR KHAN appeals each way
He does looks the strongest stayer
Win bet and a saver looks acceptable
Depends how you want to play this
My choice would be this strategy
Selection
TEMUR KHAN 4/1
Each Way
Brighton 4.15
7/2 Haveoneyerself, 9/2 Lethal Angel
13/2 Glamorous Force 8/1 Hey Ho Let's Go
9/1 Mary Of Modena, 12/1 Master Sully, 12/1 Shamshon
16/1 Hot Hot Hot.
5f Handicap
There is some deadwood
Some of them limited and unsafe
The following don't offer enough
MASTER SULLY
HOT HOT HOT
SHAMSHON
MARY OF MODENA
HEY HO LETS GO
LETHAL ANGEL is favourite
Not sure I would agree with that
She managed to win last time out
But she is a 7 year old mare
She has a months absence since
I wanted to stay with horses
Who since the start or August
Had raced at least twice before
Shortlist
HAVEONEYOURSELF
GLAMOROUS FORCE
Do not have a strong view
GLAMOROUS FORCE is a dilemma
He lacks the class of the some others
But does have the fittest profile
But split staking win and place
Selection
£5.00 Win Bet HAVEONEYOURSELF 7/2
£5.00 Place Bet GLAMOROUS FORCE 4/5
Newton Abbot 4.30
7/4 Huelgoat, 11/4 Coal Stock,
3/1 Getaman, 8/1 Voodoo Doll
25/1 Old Page,
Novice Handicap Chase
Several with claims in a bad race
No statistical negatives
HUELGOT is a 5 year old
It is his first run over fences
Rated only 97 over hurdles
I would rather take him on
COAL STOCK rated 120
Faces only a 0-104 class field
He ran well only 2 days ago
Impossible to predict his run
If his last run helps he wins
If it comes too soon he wont
But he must be on the staking
He gives lumps of weight away
No point working out how much
If his recent runs helps his chance
Then he will give that weight away
But if his last run compromises him
Then he won't be able to do that
I think he will win
But he is a short price
Making him a saver bet
Selection
£6.00 Win Bet GETAMAN 4/1
£4.00 Win Bet COAL STOCK 6/4
Galway 4.40
5/1 Montel Glory, 13/2 Just Jacob, 8/1 Willyouwalkwithme
10/1 Bonnie Kellie, 10/1 Indie Belle, 10/1 Mephisto, 10/1 Platinumcard
12/1 Abstract, 12/1 Big Island, 12/1 Malinas Glory, 14/1 Ben Vrackie,
14/1 Keep 'Em Lit, 14/1 Toms Courage, Young Fitzy, 16/1 Karayaz
16/1 The Chapel Field, Veneziano Springs, 20/1 Elusive Rebeldom
20/1 Lizrona, 50/1 Red Archangel.
Handicap Hurdle 2m
9 Past renewals
Last year a 4 year old one
The first to have won this race
Neither of today's 4 year olds
Offer as much as last years winner
ABSTRACT is rejected aged 4
JUST JACOB is rejected aged 4
He has a lot of weight for a 4yo
Galway Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
More than 11st 3lbs
Have a poor 1-31 record
That winner won 3 days before
Had a big fitness advantage
JUST JACOB has 11st 10lbs
Against the 10 year olds as well
Would not be a great shock
If a long absent horse won
But in a field as big as this
Happy to avoid these horses
LIZRONA
BONNIE KELLIE
RED ARCHANGEL
ELUSIVE REBELDOM
INDIE BELLE
THE CHAPEL FIELD
KEEP 'EM LIT
Horses beaten 20 + lengths
On their previous runs
Have a 0-44 record in this
Several already rejected fail this
BEN VRACKIE also has this problem
YOUNG FITZY also does
Every past winner had 8 + races
They also had 5 + hurdle runs
What you ideally want here
Horses with 5-12 hurdle runs
They won 8 of the 9 renewals
KARAYAZ looks inexperienced
Wary of the exposed hurdlers
WILLYOUWALKWITHME is one
He has had 21 hurdle starts now
Just 1 run in 86 days now as well
TOMS COURAGE looks exposed
Shortlist
BIG ISLAND 7/1
MONTEL GLORY 4/1
MEPHISTO 10/1
MALINAS GLORY 8/1
PLATINUMCARD 6/1
BIG ISLAND gets a pass
Every past winner had 5 + hurdle runs
He has only had 4 so is a race short
MONTEL GLORY is on a hat trick
Has the right sort of profile as well
MEPHISTO has a recent run
MALINAS GLORY 87 days off
Tried to rule out but could not
PLATINUMCARD is interesting
He does have topweight to carry
But top class connections
He is a class flat horse rated 99
Should be able to win off 108
Beaten at 9/4 in a Cartmel hurdle
But that was a 0-137 class race
This is a considerably weaker 0-106
If he shows up and is hear to win
He could easily run up a sequence
Just can not judge him properly
Selection
PLATINUMCARD 5/1
Each Way