York 2.55

4.00 Each Way PURE DREAMER 7/1-8/1 1/5 Odds 1-2-3

2.00 Win Bet PRISONERS DILEMMA 11/2-5/1

Apologies for being late

Not entirely happy

And needed to take my time

Happier now despite late

York 1.45

Silencer 10/11

Win Bet

York 2.20

£4.50 Each Way Aphelios 5/1

£1.00 Win Bet Parisiac 9/1-10/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

York 2.55

4.00 Each Way Pure Dreamer 7/1-8/1

2.00 Win Bet Prisoner's Dilemma 11/2-5/1

Fontwell 3.15

7.00 Win Bet Graffiti 5/2

3.00 Win Bet Mutara 5/2

York 3.30

8.00 Win Bet Dare To Hope 9/4

1.00 Win Bet Secret Angel 8/1-9/1

£1.00 Win Bet Family Ties 11/1-10/1

York 4.05

Arabescato 7/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

York 4.40

Forgivable 7/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

Messages all week is the plan

There will be one tomorrow

7 Previews

Technically it is very good

Bit over elaborate at times

Unnecessarily long winded

But there are other factors

Ground has softened a bit

Maybe just on the soft side

Vulnerable to non runners

Settled on this selection

York 2.55

4.00 Each Way PURE DREAMER 7/1-8/1

2.00 Win Bet PRISONERS DILEMMA 11/2-5/1

PURE DREAMER

He is an improver who needs to again

But a good price in a small field

PRISONERS DILEMMA is solid

Should be winning as a saver

But he is weak in the market

And reasons why that may be

York 1.45

SILENCER 10/11

Win Bet

York 2.20

4.50 Each Way Aphelios 5/1

1.00 Win Bet Parisiac 9/1-10/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

Had no idea how to stake this

Parisiac was cut from 20/1-10/1

I was considering him as a bet

At one stake it was £2 each way

Another stage as a £4 place bet

I could have gone win only 10/1

With Aphelios as a place saver

But as he has halved in price

Gone for a £1 saver bet instead

I just like these 2 horses best

But the staking is a nuisance

And I doubt I will have a bet

York 2.55

4.00 Each Way Pure Dreamer 7/1-8/1

2.00 Win Bet Prisoner's Dilemma 11/2-5/1

30 Win Bet

6 Saver Bet

Fontwell 3.15

7.00 Win Bet Graffiti 5/2

3.00 Win Bet Mutara 5/2

This is a percentage bet

I think we have the edge

But no way of knowing

Probably wont have a bet

York 3.30

8.00 Win Bet Dare To Hope 9/4

1.00 Win Bet Secret Angel 8/1-9/1

1.00 Win Bet Family Ties 11/1-10/1

In what is a 7 runner race

There are 3 generic stats

But at this is a small field

They could be vulnerable

And I do not relish any bet

On a Richard Fahey horse

That is why I've had savers

York 4.05

Arabescato 7/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

Can not pretend I am sold

Not convinced when I look at him

But when I look at the opposition

My confidence in him improves

I'd be worried a bit tactically

If he is held up as he often is

And he is drifting a little bit

Sitting this one out myself

York 4.40

Forgivable 7/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

My biggest concern

I have shortlisted 4 horses

And whilst I like him best

His trainer is controversial

And does have other runners

£16 Win for me

Yesterday's Summary

That was a chaotic enough day

Haydock then compounded that

Producing a firm ground track

Which concerned connections

We saw 34 horses withdrawing

Turned it into a farcical meeting

We got off to quite a bad start

Dewey Road missed the break

Left 5 lengths and lost all hope

Tacarib Bay finished in second

But the significant non runners

Meant only 4 horses took part

Mostahdaf won as a saver bet

Jacovec Cavern ran a bad race

But held up off a slower pace

He just did not settle very well

Courageous Knight disappointed

Was hoping for better than that

Helm's Rock's defeat predictable

Hard to expect him to have won

Kanukankan finished in second

Not everyone appreciates bets

As short as he was each way

I am just telling you what I do

Everyone is free to do different

And I do not stake such bets

Those who dance look insane

To those who don't hear music

Star Of Orion nicked his place

Returned stakes in a hard race

Mischief Magic a needed winner

Emaraaty Ana returned stakes

Alligator Alley was a place bet

Finished 4th but 5 non runners

Left non exchange players 1-2-3

Crazy day right to not commit

Several of our races got spoilt

The day was a bit of a circus

Which never suits 14 previews

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

York 1.45

5/6 Silencer, 11/4 Squealer, 11/2 Dream For Gold

10/1 Storm Fox, 14/1 Jamie Bond, 20/1 Seantrabh

100/1 Talented.

2yo Novice Stakes 5f

SILENCER has 6 runs

Sets a clear standard on figures

Actually it is not particularly clear

SQUEALER is in striking distance

But I was not sold on his chance

He was 40/1 in a Listed race

It was only his second run

He has already been gelded

And they went off very fast

He was in last place much of it

Then grabbed some late places

As some others ran out of petrol

He did not look the biggest either

He may well win could be wrong

I did not see enough I liked there

DREAM FOR GOLD has 3 runs

Good runs all defeats in maidens

May win but needs improvement

Comes down to choosing a side

SILENCER would be my choice

Not at all put off he is 0-6 so far

Fancied on his Salisbury debut

He got loose before the start

2nd run in the Woodcote Stakes

Did not have a great profile there

Running just 7 days after a debut

He was not draw that well either

3rd run outclassed at Royal Ascot

He was beat odds on at Chester

Missed the break and cost him

Few more yards he'd have won

His last 2 runs were in handicaps

Placing twice both in massive fields

Famous last words

But confident he can win this

Selection

SILENCER 10/11

Win Bet

York 2.20

5/1 Pink Crystal, 6/1 Aphelios, 6/1 Azure Blue

7/1 Aleezdancer, 8/1 Lucky Man, 8/1 Fast And Loose

10/1 Another Investment, 12/1 Bay Breeze, 14/1 Parisiac

16/1 Dubai Jewel, 20/1 Woodlands Charm

20/1 The Dunkirk Lads, 20/1 The Organiser

25/1 Melayu Kingdom.

3yo Handicap (6f)

10 Renewals

Fillies are 0-21 in this race

They have won elsewhere

But fillies with over 4 races

Absent more than 22 days

Have a 0-23 record in them

DUBAI JEWEL has this profile

AZURE BLUE has this profile

August to October

3yo Handicaps (6f)

With over 10 runners

Horses with 5 or more runs

Absent more than 41 days

Have a poor 1-93 record

THE ORGANISER fails this

LUCKY MAN has this profile

LUCKY MAN with 18 runs

Looks too exposed to me

To be defying 43 days off

3yo Handicaps

Any distance

Class 3 and higher

Horses with over 12 runs

Absent more than 35 days

Have a 0-59 record

LUCKY MAN fails this

This is an interesting angle

Go back 25 years

York 6f Handicaps

Horses with over 4 runs

Drawn in stall 1

Have a 0-71 record

LUCKY MAN fails this

Trap 1 and 43 days off

No horse like him won here

MELAYU KINGDOM is unsafe

From the widest draw 14 of 14

ALEEZDANCER has topweight

More weight than all past winners

Just 1 run in the last 71 days now

Therefore is conceding weight

To many with more recent races

FAST AND LOOSE drawn 13

Mixes a tough draw and absence

THE DUNKIRK LADS is rated 74

Not great considering 18 races

Which is more than all past winners

WOODLANDS CHARM is similar

She is looks unsafe a 74 rated filly

Having had 16 races to get higher

PINK CRYSTAL is a 3yo filly

She comes from a 5f race

Not an easy profile to read

Fillies are 0-21 in this race

But that is not very conclusive

This is the best I can do here

Go back to 2008

3yo Handicaps over 6f

Class 4 and higher

Any time of year

With over 10 runners

Fillies from 5f races

Having over 6 career runs

Have a weak 1-58 record

That winner had 18 races

PINK CRYSTAL only has 8

Not the best of draws either

PARISIAC has a recent run

Career best win 2 races ago

Failed to follow up at Thirsk

But forgivable run drawn 1

Carlisle10 days ago

APHELIOS Won

ANOTHER INVESTMENT 2nd

BAY BREEZE 3rd

All 3 are shortlistable

BAY BREEZE has 18 runs

That is a bit on the exposed side

But he has a good recent run

And looks well handicapped

Don't think his figures are enough

APHELIOS just beat Bay Breeze

May be improving fast right now

Running career bests as well

Selection

£4.50 Each Way APHELIOS 5/1

£1.00 Win Bet PARISIAC 9/1-10/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

York 2.55

11/4 Gale Force Maya, 7/2 Primo Bacio

9/2 Prisoner's Dilemma 13/2 Ventura Diamond

11/1 Judicial 12/1 Lampang, 14/1 Blackrod

14/1 Pure Dreamer.

Garrowby Stakes

Listed race 6f

10 Past renewals

None were aged 8 or more

JUDICIAL is rejected aged 10

He was unplaced in last years race

VENTURA DIAMOND is a 4yo filly

She is exposed with 18 career runs

Given she has 1 run in 107 days

She looks underraced to me

BLACKROD is rated 2nd lowest

His draw in stall 9 of 9 a concern

Go back to 2014

York 6f races

Under 10 runners

Horses drawn 9 were 0-21

There has been a non runner

That weakens the draw angle

Horses aged 4 or more

Beaten in a handicap last time

Have a 0-13 record in this race

BLACKROD fails this statistic

Just not my first choice

LAMPANG is a handicapper

But has placed in a Listed race

Others should have more scope

PRIMO BACIO is a 4yo filly

She comes down from a 7f race

No winners did that just 5 tried

She also comes from a Group race

All 16 horses doing that failed too

May not stop her but not like a winner

What also concerns me about her

She is entered in the Sceptre stakes

This was her target race in 2021

She missed that race but this race

Could well be a prep race for this

GALE FORCE MAYA a 6yo mare

Has 3 times placed in listed races

Exposed but fit and running well

Every chance on official ratings

PRISONERS DILEMMA a 6yo

Has the highest official rating

One of the fittest profiles in this

But has never ran outside Ireland

Racing Post Ratings

Last time out

115 Prisoner's Dilemma

109 Judicial

107 Primo Bacio

103 Pure Dreamer

102 Gale Force Maya

101 Ventura Diamond

99 Lampang

91 Blackrod

PRISONERS DILEMMA

Well clear on last time figures

Not a compelling angle at all

But felt it was quite interesting

Since he dropped to sprint trips

He's been producing career bests

He is a bit exposed

But so were a couple of winners

With the market drift a worry

Going to make him a saver bet

PURE DREAMER is lowest rated

Has to overcome 43 days absence

When 9 of the 10 previous winners

Ran within the previous 22 days

He's never been above Class 3 grade

Despite all that he is very progressive

Top Class stable

Last time at Newmarket

Came from last to first

Had topweight won going away

Did not stay 7f at Doncaster

Without that 2nd place

He would have won 4 in a row

Gelding has made the horse

Feel he can take this leap up

Selection

4.00 Each Way PURE DREAMER 7/1-8/1

2.00 Win Bet PRISONERS DILEMMA 11/2-5/1

Fontwell 3.15

2/1 Mutara, 11/4 Cabrakan, 11/4 Graffiti

11/2 Executive Pool, 8/1 Mr Freedom

33/1 Miss Fedora.

3yo Hurdle

Assumptions have to be made

CABRAKAN has no hurdling runs

He is the first hurdler from his sire

Who was an Australian sprinter-miler

Could quite easily stay and win this

He had the most ability on the flat

But not by that and I am opposing

Not because he can not win

But we can bet two horses instead

Both have at least 2 hurdle races

Both have won a hurdle race too

GRAFFITI won his at this course

Going to take the experienced two

Rather than the hurdling debutant

Selection

7.00 Win Bet GRAFFITI 5/2

3.00 Win Bet MUTARA 5/2

York 3.30

5/2 Dare To Hope, 11/4 Signora Camacho

13/2 King's Crown, Maggie's Tern, 7/1 Paddy's Day

7/1 Secret Angel, 8/1 Family Ties.

6f Nursery

No past renewals

Just 7 runners

You'd think with 7 runners

There would be no draw bias

Not entirely sure about that

Go back to 1999

York 6f races

Under 8 runners

Horses drawn 7 of 7

Had a 1-29 record

Those with over 3 runs

Have a 0-17 record in them

None have won in decades

KING'S CROWN has this draw

PADDY'S DAY has topweight

Only 3 career runs behind him

And 37 days absence as well

Thats quite a difficult profile

6f Nursery's

Any time of year

Any class of race

Male Horses

Under 4 career runs

Absent more than 4 weeks

Carrying 9st 8lbs or more

Have an inconclusive 0-15 record

PADDY'S DAY 16th to try this

SIGNORA CAMACHO

She is a filly with 6 runs

She comes from 5f

She has 33 days absence

Go back to 2007

6f Nursery's

Any time of year

Any class of race

Female horses

With over 4 career starts

Coming from 5f races

With over 28 days break

Have a 0-48 record in them

SIGNORA CAMACHO fails this

She is the 49th to try none won

MAGGIE'S TERN is unsafe

6f Nursery's

Any time of year

Any class of race

Female horses

Under 4 career runs

Coming from 7f races

Running within 20 days

Beaten over 3 lengths in them

Have a 0-31 record

MAGGIE'S TERN fails this

SECRET ANGEL is a filly

She has a neutral profile

FAMILY TIES is similar

A filly from a conditions race

She also has a neutral profile

DARE TO DREAM a male

Has the best last time figures

Unlucky at York on far rail

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet DARE TO HOPE 9/4

£1.00 Win Bet SECRET ANGEL 8/1-9/1

£1.00 Win Bet FAMILY TIES 11/1-10/1

York 4.05

3/1 The Predictor, 6/1 Atacama Desert

7/1 Arabescato, 9/1 Red Force One, 10/1 Dance To Paris

10/1 Real Terms, 12/1 Oasis Prince, 14/1 Ghadbbaan

14/1 Tommaso, 16/1 Hellenista, Justus, 25/1 Riggsby.

2m Handicap

14 Past renewals

Past renewals show

No winners came from Class 6

TOMMASO the only one doing it

Horses coming from Class 5-6

Beaten in those grades last time

Have a 0-33 record in this race

The following horses all fail this

OASIS PRINCE

RIGGSBY

HELLENISTA

JUSTUS is underraced

With just 1 run in 162 days

GHADBBAAN has 57 days break

It's a big task for a 65 rated horse

Every past winner was rated higher

ATACAMA DESERT is a 4yo

Not been a good race for those

Horses aged 4 are just 1-45

They have won at other tracks

But none were close matches

He's raced once in 85 days

And has to come up over 4f

Horses aged 4

Coming from 12f or less

Have a 0-17 record

In all similar Autumn races

I wanted a safer profile here

RED FORCE ONE is a 7yo

Similar races in September

Horses aged 7 or more

Over 16 career starts

Carrying 9st 8lbs or more

Return a 0-24 record

RED FORCE ONE fails this

DANCE TO PARIS fails this

He carries 10st 2lbs weight

Plenty of weight with a month off

REAL TERMS a 5yo mare

Failed at this trip last time

No negative but not for me

Mares aged 5 or more

Absent over 17 days

Are 0-19 in similar races

THE PREDICTOR is a 3yo

Comes here after a recent win

He stayed at Thirsk in Class 5

His sires first winner over 2m

Not sure York in a Class 4 race

Will be as easy to get the trip

ARABESCATO is down 4f in trip

Unlikely he stayed last time out

He was outclassed in that race

Not the safest profile down 4f

But he is running at his peak

Selection

ARABESCATO 7/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

York 4.40

9/2 Mr Big Stuff, 11/2 Samuel Spade, 6/1 Eeetee

6/1 Forgivable, 7/1 Shaladar, 10/1 Fourth Time Lucky

11/1 Arch Moon, Havana Party, 14/1 First Impression

16/1 Highwaygrey, 20/1 The Flying Ginger

25/1 Dulla Bhatti, Mr Carpenter, 33/1 Hooflepuff

40/1 Carlos Felix.

10f Handicap

Looks too difficult

Cutting corners in this one

Go back to 2016

York 10f Handicaps

Horses drawn 12 or more

Have a horrible 1-192 record

Have to be wary of non runners

But opposing these high draws

THE FLYING GINGER

FIRST IMPRESSION

HIGHWAYGREY

MR CARPENTER

HOOFLEPUFF

Horses aged 6 or more

Have a 0-46 record in the race

Against the horses

With poor recent runs

Against horses from 7f

FOURTH TIME LUCKY does this

He also has several weeks off

Two types win this

Lightly raced types under 10 runs

Or experienced horses

Who have had recent races

Horses with over 9 career runs

Absent more than 17 days

Have a 0-56 record in this

Several rejected earlier fail this

DHULLA BHATTI fails this angle

HAVANA PARTY also fails this

MR BIG STUFF is a 3yo

Uncomfortable with his profile

Partly his 44 day absence

Partly coming from a 1m 4f race

Similar races show

Horses aged 3

Down from 1m 4f races

Absent more than 4 weeks

Carrying 8st 13lbs or more

Have a 0-23 record

Not a great angle to be fair

But not matchable to a winner

SHALADAR has a chance

Has to stay the 10 furlongs though

Found 2 winners like him in small fields

None in a field of 8 or more runners

Shortlisting 4

ARCH MOON

SAMUEL SPADE

EEETEE

FORGIVABLE

ARCH MOON has every chance

His last 2 runs were not perfect

One was his all weather debut

Neither race was he ridden well

He was entiled to have needed both

But he is giving weight away

To younger fitter profiles here

Best aged is 4 year olds

Especially with recent runs

EEETEE has this profile

But is he second string ?

FORGIVABLE on my radar

Backed him e/w at Haydock

When he lost at Beverley

He was only rated 77 there

His rivals rated 91 92 88 84

None of todays opposition

Are rated higher than 81

Improvement possible too

Selection

FORGIVABLE 7/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4