Today's Best Bet
Down Royal 5.40
SLANEY TIDE 5/1 Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Preview Selections
Newcastle 1.05
9.00 Win Bet Haven Lady11/8
1.00 Win Bet Gold Ring16/1-18/1
Ascot 2.00
6.00 Win Bet Pinafore 7/2-4/1
4.00 Win Bet Hello Deira 5/4-11/8
Haydock 2.28
8.00 Win Bet Centrefold 15/8
2.00 Win Bet Zouky 2/1
Ascot 4.20
Greatgadian 100/30-7/2 Each Way
Kilbeggan 4.30
Rodney Bay 11/2-6/1
Each Way
Down Royal 4.40
4.00 Each Way Sosallycanwait 6/1
2.00 Win Jupiter Express 7/2-100/30
Kilbeggan 5.30
6.00 Win Bet High City Roller 5/2
4.00 Place Bet Viceregent 6/4-7/4
Down Royal 5.40
Slaney Tide 5/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Today's Message
An interesting message
Some of the softer races
Pretty hard to stake right
Little strength in markets
Hard to get the right prices
Some races need flexibility
Looking for the best bet
Ideally one at a decent price
That will be available to all
Ascot 4.20
GREATGADIAN 100/30-7/2 Each Way
He has been nibbled from 4/1
Does take a bit of shine off it
But felt he had a major chance
But vulnerable to a non runner
So the best bet in the message
Much harder race
But we have 4 places available
Today's Best Bet
Down Royal 5.40
SLANEY TIDE 5/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Underneath The Message
Yesterday's Summary
Clearly had the upper hand
Despite no best bet advised
Message closed L W P W P
Had a couple of nice winners
Two more won by saver bets
Lost just one of the previews
Non committal but successful
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Newcastle 1.05
6/4 Haven Lady, 5/2 Siofra, 4/1 Vertice
9/1 Wildmountainthyme, 12/1 Gold Ring
20/1 Burnage Boy, 25/1 Cease And Desist
12f Handicap
Slow to standard
May exposed a few of these
WILDMOUNATINTHYME
Father was only a sprinter
Enough failures over 12f now
To think she wants a trip drop
VERTICE is an older 5yo mare
She has raced once in 176 days
Maybe not enough on this surface
SIOFRA is a 4 year old filly
Not only is she going up 4f
She has raced once in 268 days
Just the one run this season
And not long downgraded stables
CEASE AND DESIST topweight
Has not shown much this year
Has a nasty absence to overcome
GOLD RING
Just 4 runs ago
He was our 50/1 winner
When he won at Catterick
Looks so hard to like today
But would be a cheap saver
May also be a sensible one
With so many negatives in this
Maybe he didn't stay last time
It was 2m on standard to slow
Maybe he went off too quickly
He did have 2 months absence
Maybe Maybe Maybe
Very hard to fancy him a lot
But he does have a squeak
HAVEN LADY can take this
Looks the fittest safest option
Facing several with flaws
Selection
9.00 Win Bet HAVEN LADY 11/8
1.00 Win Bet GOLD RING 16/1-18/1
Ascot 2.00
2/1 Hello Deira, 9/2 Pinafore, 6/1 Renesmee
7/1 Juryman, 10/1 Expert Agent, Revenite
12/1 Dancing Gypsy, 14/1 Shot, United Approach
20/1 Nammos, 25/1 Commission, 50/1 Kynsa
100/1 Kwiz.
2yo Novice 6f
HELLO DEIRA sets the standard
Stall 13 is a bit on the high side
Having said that his main danger
PINAFORE is unraced drawn 1
Go back to 2011
Ascot 6f races
With 9 + runners
Unraced horses
Drawn 1-2-3-4
Have a 1-46 record
That's not a good return
It would put me off a horse
First time out drawn stall 1
PINAFORE has work to do
RENESMEE is a filly
Could play a role in staking
She was a cheap purchase
Considered a £4 Place Bet
That could be the right move
Think there is a danger here
Of overrating some of these
The safest stake
Would be a win and place bet
But to win any money in this
Both would need to deliver
Not too comfortable with that
So I am changing strategy
Going to ignore my draw stats
PINAFORE win with a saver bet
Just not convinced about the class
Of some of the obvious dangers
Selection
6.00 Win Bet PINAFORE 7/2-4/1
4.00 Win Bet HELLO DEIRA 5/4-11/8
Haydock 2.28
9/4 Kitai, 3/1 Centrefold, 4/1 Zouky
10/1 Good Gracious, 12/1 Flying Barty
12/1 Violeta, 14/1 Cloud Queen
20/1 Golden Bullet 20/1 Lady Miller
25/1 Kanawha, 33/1 Juliana Popjoy
33/1 Verbasca, 50/1 Carmentis
100/1 Go Wide My Lilly.
2yo Novice (6f)
Looks a 3 horse race
GOOD GRACIOUS a filly
Comes here unraced 10/1
She could be a 4th player
But prefer her 3 main dangers
KITAI could easily win
But taking her on at 2/1
Because of her wide draw
Go back to 2007
Haydock 6f races
Under 16 runners
Horses with under 6 runs
Drawn 13 or higher
Have a 0-58 record
KITAI fails this statistic
LADY MILLER fails it too
Although a non runner
Does compromise this stat
And he is far from a negative
CENTEFOLD though
Appeals a little bit more
Favourite on her debut
That was a Grade 1 track
Must have been confidence
Given she was drawn high
Just prefer her to Kitai
Both of them were expensive
CENTERFOLD cost a lot more
Going to save on ZOUKY too
Selection
8.00 Win Bet CENTERFOLD 15/8
2.00 Win Bet ZOUKY 2/1
Ascot 4.20
5/2 Rebel Territory, 7/2 Greatgadian
5/1 Dubai Mirage, 6/1 Positive, 7/1 Bopedro
7/1 Notre Belle Bete, 20/1 Dashing Roger
20/1 Raising Sand.
8f Handicap
Class 2 race
Some of the look underraced
RAISING SANDS is a 10yo
With just one run in 85 days
POSITIVITY 1 run in 12 months
DASHING ROGER similar issues
There is a case
That the favourite is underraced
Similar races show
Horses aged 4
Over 7 career starts
Just 1 run in 12 weeks
Have a 0-30 record
REBEL TERRITORY fails this
He's raced once in 99 days
Raced just twice in 11 months
Not prepared to commit to him
NOTRE BELLE BETE is similar
He also fails the 0-30 statistic
BOPEDRO is shortlisted
But 10 of the past 11 winners
Were younger than he is
DUBAI MIRAGE is a positive
GREATGADIAN is a positive
He ran at the Shergar Cup
Made him a negative there
Too stiff a task as a 4 year old
GREATGADIAN my preference
DUBAI MIRAGE a saver option
Either as a win bet or a place bet
Decided to go each way single
Selection
GREATGADIAN 100/30-7/2 Each Way
Kilbeggan 4.30
2/1 Pats Choice, 100/30 So Scottish
7/2 Music Of Tara, 5/1 Rodney Bay
14/1 Aghinagh, 20/1 Moyode Mist, Shore
25/1 Cherisheverymoment, Princess Sophia
33/1 Ballymist, 50/1 Glenstan
100/1 Keepthepresent.
Maiden Hurdle 2m
Looks like we have 4 horses
Who are running for 3 places
MUSIC OF TARA is a mare
She has a 120 day absence
September and October
Every maiden hurdle
Open to both sexes
Mares aged 5 or more
Under 5 hurdle races
Absent more than 78 days
Have a 0-141 record in them
MUSIC OF TARA fails this
It's not as good as it sounds
But the absence is a concern
PATS CHOICE is a 5yo
He has 1 run in 159 days
Will he be on the bounce ?
Hard to know probably not
But it is not a perfect profile
SO SCOTTISH is respected
Some will like him each way
But his figures are not great
I'd argue on achievements
RODNEY BAY has done more
Yes he is far more exposed
He has a 0-21 career record
He has lost in all 9 hurdle runs
But horses do win these races
When exposed just like he is
RODNEY BAY comes here
With a career best 11 days ago
SO SCOTTISH did the same too
But he has 1 run in 111 days now
Any of the can win this
RODNEY BAY appeals each way
He would also as a place saver
Selection
RODNEY BAY 6/1-11/2 Each Way
Down Royal 4.40
9/4 Sceolan, 3/1 Gobi Star
9/2 Jupiter Express 6/1 Sosallycanwait
13/2 Squeezebox, 12/1 Aurora Nova
14/1 Carla's Kodi Bear, It Might Be You
20/1 Troy Top.
All aged maiden 5f
Some look evenly matched
SCEOLAN has every chance
But drawn widest in stall 9 or 9
That probably is not ideal here
Since 2011
Down Royal 5f race
With under 11 runners
Horses under 4 years old
Drawn 9 or higher
Have a 0-15 record
Not very conclusive
But does she want 5f ?
Ran well over this trip last time
And this testing 5f will suit better
But lots of stamina in pedigree
And that draw could make it hard
GOBI STAR is a 4yo
Gives weight to the 3 year olds
Do not think he has a safe profile
Having raced once in just 86 days
Fitter horses getting weight off him
SQUEEZEBOX has raced once
Wanted a better debut run from him
Opposing the favourites in this
Shortlisting this pair
JUPITER EXPRESS 3/1-100/30
SOSALLYCANWAIT 6/1
JUPITER EXPRESS rated 69
Could be seen as a bit classier
Did he go off too quickly last time
He looked like he was badly drawn
SOSALLYCANWAIT is a filly
But she does have excuses
Needed her run here in June
Navan 3 runs ago underraced
Having ran once in 138 days
Two runs ago flopped at Cork
But her saddle slipped there
And she was heavily eased
Last time a creditable second
It was not a strong handicap
But 21 runners at the Curragh
Ran well to finish in 2nd place
I don't want to lose if she wins
Maybe the excuses she's had
Have masked her improvement
The bet I like most is this one
Selection
4.00 Each Way SOSALLYCANWAIT 6/1
2.00 Win JUPITER EXPRESS 7/2-100/30
Kilbeggan 5.30
13/8 Carrarea, 2/1 High City Roller, 15/2 She's Tobias
8/1 Country Queen, 10/1 Viceregent, 16/1 Qatar Spirit
16/1 Sarsfield, 20/1 Wellington Hill, 25/1 Legal Principle
25/1 Will You Win, 33/1 Remembergenteljack
66/1 Gatewood Girl, 100/1 Sagecraft, Smallcraftwarning
200/1 Mid Life Crisis, Out Galavanting.
Maiden Hurdle 2m 3f
CARRAREA
No doubt he has the best form
Deserves a win and may get it
What bothers me about him
He ran on the flat 20 days ago
That was after 188 days absence
If the horse was seen as very fit
He would surely have come here
Not needing to have any prep run
Instead they chose the flat race
My assumption is he needed one
Does not mean to say it must help
Maybe he needs another prep run
Perhaps he is here on the bounce
Either way given he is quite short
Did not want to commit to him
HIGH CITY ROLLER
Ran very well on his debut
I am thinking each way 5/2
But not going down that route
Not for a once raced horse
Feel it's best to split stake
Selection
6.00 Win Bet HIGH CITY ROLLER 5/2
4.00 Place Bet VICEREGENT 6/4
Down Royal 5.40
9/2 Approaching Bear, 13/2 Fendi, Slaney Tide
7/1 Pub Talk, 8/1 Slick Chick, 9/1 Lady Skipper
12/1 Giselles Romance, Mile End, 14/1 Belatucadros
14/1 Distillate, Madakasham Jam, 14/1Texas Boy
16/1 Amemri, 20/1 Reigles.
7f Nursery
Horses rated 0-70
APPROACHING BEAR rated 70
Has every chance off topweight
He would make my top 2-3-4 here
Every past winner of this
Ran within the last 4 weeks
I'd be agaisnt horses failing this
And the horses with just 3 runs
Especially the fillies with 3 runs
Who have a 0-39 record in this
SLANEY TIDE
Has the fittest profile
With the most recent runs
Lats time out rated 66
He was the worst horse
His opponents that day
Had these official ratings
78 79 75 76 86 71
Faces 0-70 class here
It is a fair drop in grade
Fittest horse
Class dropper
Short absence
4 Places available
Ticks a lot of boxes
In what is an open race
Selection
SLANEY TIDE 5/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Weekend Plans
Saturday
Has some pretty big field
We will get tested tomorrow
Possible Handicap Bet
There is a horse about 14/1
That could be interesting
Runs at a quieter meeting
Doubt it will be a staked bet
Will have far safer options
Haydock Sprint Cup
4/1 Minzaal 5/1 Naval Crown
13/2 Emaraaty Ana 8/1 Kinross 8/1 Rohaan
8/1 Art Power 12/1 Go Bears Go 12/1 Brad The Brief
16/1 Harry Three 20/1 Flaming Rib 25/1 Castle Star
25/1 Khaadem 33/1 Dubawi Legend 33/1 Chil Chil
33/1 Great Ambassador 33/1 Dubawi Legend
50/1 Umm Kulthum 50/1 Hala Hala Athmani
Sent some statistics recently
Just 1 done 1 brief scan
Will be covering tomorrow
But not had a detailed look
Not done the draw bias yet
Provisional shortlist
Which I expect will change
13/2 Emaraaty Ana
8/1 Kinross
4/1 Minzaal
5/1 Naval Crown
12/1 Go Bears Go
Haydock 2.55
Old Borough Cup
Handicap 1m 6f
5/2 Soulcombe 6/1 Contact 6/1 Euchan Glen
13/2 Evaluation 8/1 Rajinsky 10/1 Reshoun
10/1 Going Gone 16/1 Taipan 16/1 Amtiyaz
20/1 Charging Thunder 20/1 Golden Flame
20/1 Dark Jedi 20/1 Morando 20/1 Island Brave
25/1 Haliphon
Just tidying this race up
Now we have declarations
Will finish this off saturday
SOULCOMBE is favourite
Stall 13 is not a kind draw
And no horse has won this
From York's Melrose (0-4)
The long absent winner
Won with 57 days absence
The following fail this stat
RAJINSKY
MORANDO
Horses with 9st 10lbs or more
Have not won this race (0-14)
Concerned about the following
RESHOUN
EUCHAN GLEN
Horses with 9st 1lbs or more
Absent more than 22 days
Have a 0-28 record in this
Several of the above fail this
Few winners drop in trip to win
Horses aged 3-4-5
Coming from 2m + races
Have a 0-41 record in this
The following fail this
GOING GONE
GOLDEN FLAME
No past winners
Were aged 8 or more
EUCHAN GLEN fails this
As do others already mentioned
ISLAND BRAVE last years winner does
Since 2013
Haydock 14f races
Horses draw 12 or higher
Have a 0-50 record in them
Concerns over these draws
RESHOUN drawn 15
AMTIYAZ drawn 14
SOULCOMBE drawn 13
EVOLUTION drawn 12
Go back to 2009
Horses with over 11 runs
Drawn in stall 12 or higher
Have a 0-49 record in them
SOULCOMBE has 7 runs
So there is a case with him
To forgive him his bad draw
EVALUATION drawn in 12
Only just fails the draw stat
Good case to ignore that too
5/2 Soulcombe
13/2 Evaluation
16/1 Taipan
20/1 Charging Thunder
20/1 Dark Jedi
25/1 Haliphon
1:45 HAYDOCK
Dark Shift