11 Previews
1 Account Bet
Account bet
Fontwell 1.25
6.00 Win Bet DELLBOY TROTTER 5/1-11/2
4.00 Win Bet PARIS DIXIE 6/4
Preview Selections
Fontwell 1.25
6.00 Win Bet Dellboy Trotter 5/1
4.00 Win Bet Paris Dixie 6/4
Gowran Park 1.45
Charlie Luciano 2/1
Win Bet
Ascot 1.51
6.00 Win Bet Manaccan 4/1
4.00 Place Bet Tis Marvellous 6/4
Fontwell 2.00
Hurricane Vichi 11/8-6/4
Win Bet
Ascot 2.25
5.00 Win Bet High Definition 7/1-15/2
5.00 Place Bet Cresta 1/1
Redcar 3.21
7.00 Win Bet Funny Story 9/1
3.00 Win Bet Cold Case 9/4-5/2
Gowran Park 3.27
6.00 Win Bet Lord Erskine 8/1-9/1
4.00 Place Bet Riggs 6/4
Ascot 3.36
Boardman 16/1-20/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Killarney 3.40
5.00 Win Bet My Minervina 9/2-5/1
5.00 Place Bet Imposing Supreme 10/11
Ascot 4.10
6.00 Win Bet Nizaaka 5/1-9/2
4.00 Place Bet Queen Aminatu 5/4-11/8
Gowran Park 5.12
Indigo Breeze 4/1-9/2
Each Way
Fontwell 1.25
6.00 Win Bet DELLBOY TROTTER 5/1
4.00 Win Bet PARIS DIXIE 6/4
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Fontwell 1.25
6/4 Paris Dixie, 5/1 Dellboy Trotter, 6/1 Blame The Game
7/1 Best Pal, 8/1 Monty's Award, 14/1 Pour Une Raison
40/1 Chivers
Handicap Hurdle 3m 2f
Interesting little race
BLAME THE GAME is backed
But he has a long absence
He has 12st in weight as well
Not a sire I'd rely on over 3m +
No doubt he is well handicapped
Probably why he is being backed
But his absence and his weight
Leave him with a lot to prove
Even allowing for the fact
His trainer won this last year
With a similar type of horse
BEST PAL is a 5yo
With just 1 run since April
He could be underraced
PARIS DIXIE won 5 days ago
She is a mare and won a Novice
Very difficult to read her profile
I would see her as a saver bet
If we get Blame The Game beat
And we split stake these horses
PARIS DIXIE
DELLBOY TROTTER
We only had opponents to beat
That are rated a modest 84 or less
Thats potentially interesting
DELLBOY TROTTER
He is going up in trip
He has his limitations
But a stamina packed pedigree
He could improve over this far
Obviously the biggest threat
Is Blame The Game winning
Selection
6.00 Win Bet DELLBOY TROTTER 5/1
4.00 Win Bet PARIS DIXIE 6/4
Gowran Park 1.45
5/2 Charlie Luciano, 9/2 Cougar, 6/1 Shetland Tony
13/2 Arch Enemy, 8/1 Adhuil, 9/1 Gig Harbor, 12/1 Mi Sueno
18/1 Calico, 20/1 Brown Eagle, Expound, Grizabella
33/1 Alice Diamond, 33/1 Petrila, 33/1 Pont Audemer
50/1 Little Trigger, 66/1 Beachmount Paddy.
3yo Hurdle
What you need here
7 or more career starts
Past hurdling experience
Past winners
Had these hurdle runs
2 1 2 2 4 2 3 1 3 1 1 3 2
Hurdling debutants
Have a 0-61 record in this
Several outsiders fail this
COUGAR also has this problem
Past winners had these runs
13 1 9 10 12 11
13 8 13 11 7 9 10
Every past winner except 1
Had at least 7 lifetime starts
The only winner that did not
Was long odds on in a tiny field
COUGAR only has 5 career runs
He is unsafe without hurdling form
Other horses failing this
GIG HARBOUR
MI SUENO
PETRILA
PONT AUDEMER
CALICO
SHETLAND TONY fails this too
He has raced just twice before
One of those was over hurdles
Where he lasted just 1 hurdle
Before unseating before the 2nd
GRIZABELLA is only a filly
Do not see enough positives
ADHUIL has a small chance
Not enough to be that tempting
ARCH ENEMY has 24 career runs
No past winner had 14 or more
Experienced but is also exposed
Each way chance but a victory
May need 1 or 2 to underperform
CHARLIE LUCIANO
Has 9 runs
Has 2 hurdle runs
Safe on both counts
Only statistical worry here
Running on the flat 7 days ago
If that race sharpens him up
I would not look anywhere else
COUGAR is favourite
In a way that surprises me
But he was a 92 rated flat horse
Ran his profile carefully
What his profile tells me
Plenty like him win these races
But outside of December
None did it in a big field
Go back to 2010
January to November
3yo hurdle races
Horses with...
Under 6 career starts
2 or more flat runs
No hurdling experience
Absent more than 70 days
Have a 17-269 record
COUGAR has this profile
Which is perfectly fine
But in fields of 11 or more
They have a 0-108 record
My angles suggest
The field size beats him
Probably as the bigger the field
The more horses with experience
The market says I am wrong
But not going to select Cougar
CHARLIE LUCIANO my choice
Not betting him each way though
Selection
CHARLIE LUCIANO 2/1
Win Bet
Ascot 1.51
4/1 King's Lynn, 9/2 Manaccan
13/2 Tis Marvellous 7/1 Ebro River, 7/1 Korker
8/1 Ainsdale, Came From The Dark, 12/1 Designer
20/1 Annaf, 20/1 Method.
Rous Stakes
Listed race over 5f
Ground now on the soft side
Best Trial race
Newbury 14 days ago
5f International sprint
Provided the winner of this
In the following seasons
1997 1998 2005 2007
2009 2013 2014 2015
2017 2020 2021
3 Horses come from there
MANACCAN finished 3rd
METHOD behind him 4th
TIS MARVELLOUS was 7th
Because he started shorter
And finished ahead of others
MANACCAN is the obvious one
But the ground might hurt him
That has to be the main concern
TIS MARVELLOUS ran there too
Won this race last year as a 7yo
Although he's now an 8 year old
He does handle softer ground
All previous winners since 1997
Had a race within the 43 days
KINGS LYNN has 105 days off
Thats a long time on soft ground
When he also has a penalty too
CAME FROM THE DARK a 6yo
Looks opposable absent133 days
All past winners had 12 + runs
DESIGNER has only had 9 runs
And offers just 1 run in 106 days
KORKER is a 3 year old
Look at his sire's record
His runners in listed/group races
Run over 5f on softer than good
Have a winless 0-26 record so far
Not the most encouraging signal
AINSDALE is 5 years old
He has not had a run in 35 days
He has raced once in 98 days
Only had 2 runs in 10 months
An exposed older horse on soft
I'd be wanting more recent races
Go back to 1997
Horses with just 1 run in 3 months
Have a 0-19 record in this race
The following horses fail this
AINSDALE
DESIGNER
ANNAF
EBRO RIVER is a 3yo
Does not have much 5f form
He may come from a Group 1
But no past winners did that
None came from Group 1 or 2
If you look at past renewals
That were run on softer ground
There were 12 renewals on soft
Horses running within 3 weeks
Won all 12 of the soft renewals
Those absent over 21 days
Had a 0-50 record in them all
This leads to a shortlist of 3
The same 3 from the best trial
MANACCAN
METHOD
TIS MARVELLOUS
METHOD has plenty to find
TIS MARVELLOUS
When he won this last year
Put in a R.Post Rating of 117
None of these have done that
When the ground was softer
It was his career best number
It gets him on the staking plan
Could be a sensible place bet
MANACCAN is given a chance
To show he can handle softer
Given in the previous 5 weeks
He has more runs than the rest
Selection
6.00 Win Bet MANACCAN 4/1
4.00 Place Bet TIS MARVELLOUS 6/4
Fontwell 2.00
7/4 Icare Grandchamp, 9/4 Hurricane Vichi
7/2 Lord Snootie, 7/1 Red Windsor, 12/1 Mister Who
40/1 Vinland.
Novice Hurdle 2m 3f
A race of prospects
All are lightly raced horses
None have British hurdle form
ICARE GRANDCHAMP
He was a negative
But has just pulled out
And destroyed the negative
HURRICANE VICHI
Go back to 2002
September and October
Novice Hurdles 2m 4f or less
Horses aged 5
1 Career run
Winning a bumper last year
Have a decent 18-38 record
Thats a strike rate of 47.37%
HURRICANE VICHI next to try
Trainer stats are positive too
Milton Harris is in red hot form
Milton Harris record
Once raced bumper horses
First time out that season
Starting under 12/1
He has had 4 runners
They finished W 3 W 2 in them
Original Plan
Win Bet Hurricane Vichi
Saver Bet Mister Who
But the favouite pulling out
Has destroyed that option
Selection
HURRICANE VICHI 11/8
Win Bet
Ascot 2.25
13/8 Hamish, 3/1 High Definition, 9/2 Cresta
9/1 Get Shirty, Third Realm, 14/1 Candleford
16/1 Euchen Glen, 25/1 Farhan
66/1 Good Show.
Cumberland Lodge Stakes
Group race over 12f
HAMISH is joint top rated
Very sexy from a top stable
But he is 6 years old now
He's raced once in 149 days
Only two runs in 10 months
Could he be underraced ?
Horses aged 5 or older
Under 4 runs that year
Have a 0-29 record in this
HAMISH has had just 2 runs
CANDLEFORD ran 8 days ago
Horses running within 2 weeks
Have 0-43 record since 1997
May not be a safe preparation
GET SHIRTY drops from 2m 2f
Thats a horrible looking prospect
But the 2004 winner did the same
He was a lot younger though
EUCHAN GLEN rejected as a 9yo
THIRD WORLD has his chance
Comes from September Stakes
3 past winners did the same
But all did better than he did
He's raced once in 90 days
Would want more than that
CRESTA has a good profile
Male horses aged 3
4-11 career starts
Coming from under 2m
Coming from Class 2 or higher
Absent more than 2 weeks
Beaten under 9 lengths last time
Have a 9-20 record in this race
The past winners with this profile
1997 1998 2001 2002
2003 2011 2013 2015 2016
CRESTA has to prove stamina
Has a weak stable behind him
HIGH DEFINITION is a 4yo
Same official Rating as Hamish
Hard to believe he is that good
Given he never seems to win
But he wont have to be that good
Last seen in France 20 days ago
Makes him more difficult to judge
Has to be a potential winner
His form figures look horrible
Suggests he has some issues
So many have given up on him
But this is a big drop in class
Hamish aside it is a weak race
And he may not be at his best
HIGH DEFINITION a smart 2yo
Why is he 0-11 since then ?
His 3yo season is excusable
Pitched in high class races
Never fit enough to do justice
With just 4 runs that entire season
Maybe he is a hard horse to get fit
Maybe he takes warm up races
Most runs were in Group 1-2 races
He has certainly not seduced me
Looks the obvious bet on some runs
But he consistently frustrates again
But there are only 8 opponent here
Three of them are rank outsiders
The favourite has some doubts
Several unproven in the class too
This is just easier than usual for him
Rather than go each way
Would rather split stake this
Selection
5.00 Win Bet HIGH DEFINITION 7/1-15/2
5.00 Place Bet CRESTA 1/1-10/11
Redcar 3.21
7/2 Cold Case, 9/2 Barefoot Angel, 6/1 Maylandsea
8/1 Holguin, 9/1 Lady Bullet, Washington Heights
10/1 Funny Story, 12/1 Jumbeau, Maria Branwell
20/1 King's Crown, Misty Blues, Signora Camacho
25/1 Primrose Ridge, 40/1 Speriamo, Tatterstall
50/1 Hour By Hour, 66/1 Oahu.
Two Year Old Trophy
Listed race over 6f
We normally do well in this
But this year looks trappy
JUMBEAU is rejected from 5f
HOLGUIN has a fair chance
But stall 15 is not a great draw
MAYLANDSEA ran 7 days ago
Interesting it was in a Group 1
But she did start 125/1 in that
Not sure that's a safe profile
If you look at past renewals
That had under 21 runners
Horses drawn 11 or higher
Had a 0-52 record in them
Going right back to 1997
This is a mark against these
HOLGUIN
MAYLANDSEA
JUMBEAU
SIGNORA CAMACHO
BAREFOOT ANGEL
WASHINGTON HEIGHTS
Can not be ruled out either
But geldings are 1-49 in this
Just an added worry with him
COLD CASE
Must be on the staking
On Racing Post Ratings
He is 8lbs clear of these
There are a few concerns
His price around 9/4 is one
The race he comes from
Has not been a great trial
Horses from that race 1-41
Last time winners like him
Have not done that well either
Have a modest 2-52 record
Must be on the staking though
One of the best trial races
They Clyde Stakes at Ayr
MARIA BRANWELL ran there
But drawn 1 could be difficult
BAREFOOT ANGEL ran there
Hard to judge a penalised filly
But she is at least a fair price
FUNNY STORY is up in class
More than any past winner
But that's a misleading angle
As she has ran in Listed class
Well beaten in that admittedly
But had worst draw and excuses
And has won both her other runs
And poised to strike from stall 3
She is twice the price to win this
Than she was in that listed race
Split staking this race
Selection
7.00 Win Bet FUNNY STORY 9/1
3.00 Win Bet COLD CASE 9/4-5/2
Gowran Park 3.27
5/1 Macgiloney, 11/2 Noble Birth, 6/1 Glenquin Castle
6/1 Riggs, 13/2 Lord Erskine, 9/1 Walking On Glass
11/1 Waitnsee, 12/1 Dromore Lad, 14/1 Futurum Regem
14/1 Streets Of Doyen, 14/1 Unexpected Depth
20/1 Low Lie The Fields.
Handicap Hurdle 3m
Opposing the following
FUTURUM REGEM on sire stats
Looks an unlikely stayer over 3 miles
The following horses
All look underraced for this test
LOW LIKE THE FIELDS
GLENQUIN CASTLE off 265 days
UNEXPECTED DEPTH unsafe
He may be on bounce here as well
Topweight one recent run in months
DROMORE LAD a 10yo off 90 days
NOBLE BIRTH is a 5 year old
His age group are 1-30 in this race
Might win but prefer an older horse
WAITNSEE is a mare off 8 weeks
Did not see enough positives there
Go back 10 days
Our best bet of the day then
In a Listowel handicap hurdle
MACGILONEY won at 25/1
RIGGS finished 3rd at 20/1
Magnificent result for us there
Both come out and race again
Both of these are shortlistable
6 Past winners of this race
Came from Listowel last time
Including 2 from the same race
Both of these look shortlistable
But this is a stronger race today
Than the one we backed them in
Horses from a chase
Have a 0-29 record in this
Not sure if we can trust that
WALKING ON GLASS does this
STREETS OF DOYEN does this
He's having a 1st run for a new yard
LORD ERSKINE is hard to read
Comes here winning a flat race
Ran his profile and it looks fine
I found 3 winners from the flat
Who won or placed 7 days ago
Have to guess from here
Selection
6.00 Win Bet LORD ERSKINE8/1-9/1
4.00 Place Bet RIGGS 6/4
Ascot 3.36
11/2 Fresh, 6/1 Symbolize, 7/1 Safe Voyage
8/1 Blue For You, 9/1 River Nymph, 12/1 Asjad
12/1 Orbaan, 12/1 Silent Film, 14/1 Escobar
14/1 New Kingdom, Rhoscolyn, 16/1 Boardman
14/1 Ever Given, 20/1 Mums Tipple, 22/1 Shelir
25/1 Oo De Lally, 33/1 Accidental Agent
50/1 Sir Dancealot.
Challenge Cup
Heritage Handicap 7f
The last 9 winners
Won from these draws
2 17 17 8 16 8 10 12 4 13
High draws have been best
But if the ground gets soft
Low numbers also do well
Taking on the older horses
Based on the following stats
Go back to 1997
September to November
7f handicaps
Class 2
Horses aged 8 or more
Have a 0-77 record in them
The following all fail this
SAFE VOYAGE
SIR DANCEALOT
ESCOBAR
ACCIDENTAL AGENT
Go back to 1997
September to November
7f handicaps
Class 2
Over 10 runners
Horses aged 7 or more
Carrying 9st 1lbs or more
Have a 0-74 record in them
None were won aged 7 +
When carrying a big weight
The following all fail this
SAFE VOYAGE
SIR DANCEALOT
ESCOBAR
ACCIDENTAL AGENT
ORBAAN
EVER GIVEN is a 3 year old
Trained on nicely this season
Hard to read coming via France
But not keen on stall 1 here
Go back to 2011
Ascot 7f handicaps
Any class
Any time of year
With over 8 runners
Horses drawn in stall 1
Having over 8 career runs
Return a 0-68 record in them
EVER GIVEN fails this angle
His recent form in Group races
Not orthodox in these races
RHOSCOLYN is 4 years old
He is very exposed with 29 runs
Go back to 2008
September to October
Similar races show
Horses aged 4
With over 19 career runs
Have a 0-80 record
RHOSCOLYN fails this angle
OO DE LALLY isn short of runs
WIth just 1 run in the last 91 days
SHELIR should struggle off 102
Over a trip short of his optimum
MUM'S TIPPLE does not appeal
RIVER NYMPH needs respecting
But does need a lifetime best here
Having raced once in 107 days
That looks a flaw in his profile
SILENT FILM ran well last time
But started 40/1 for Godolphin
Will do well to improve on that
FRESH has won his last 2 runs
Both Class 2 races over 7f here
Asking a lot to win a third class 2
Horses aged 5 or more
Winning last time out
Absent more than 7 days
Have a 0-15 record in this
FRESH is the 16th to try this
If high numbers are favoured
His chance will improve a lot
But still feel this is a lot to ask
BLUE FOR YOU won last time
He is now racing off 6lbs higher
And faces 44 days off the track
NEW KINGDOM is lightly raced
He has never met an older horse
Does that in a better handicap
Thats asking a lot against elders
ASJAD has a chance
Biggest concern a combination
Of his carrying 9st 8lbs weight
With just 1 run in only 72 days
SYMBOLIZE
In form and consistent 5yo
He finished 2nd in this last year
Opposed him at Doncaster last time
Failed some sire stats over a mile
This trip will suit him very nicely
If high draws are favoured in this
Then he has a serious chance
But stall 18 of 18 feels too much
Would consider him as £1 saver
BOARDMAN
Not sure why he can't win
He has had 31 career runs
Yet that is a bit too exposed
But on Racing Post Ratings
His 2 career best figures
Both came on his last 2 runs
So he is running at his best
Do we want a 6yo off 7 days ?
The 2009 and 2018 winners
Were both 6 year olds
Both ran 7 days before like him
The 2009 winner had 34 runs
So I can not see a big issue
Selection
BOARDMAN 16/1-20/1
Each Way 1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5
Killarney 3.40
5/1 Imposing Supreme, 11/2 Drombeg Duke
6/1 Dragon Of Malta, My Minervina, 13/2 Starting Monday
7/1 Cosmic Vega, Thunder Queen, 10/1 Kodiac Prince
10/1 Turbulence, 16/1 Brasil Power, 25/1 Sevenal
25/1 Shawaamekh.
8f Handicap
No time for a big preview
MY MINERVINA
Improving filly
Won only 2 days ago
Have good excuses
For both her Galway defeats
Her win 2 days ago
Was against her own sex
And in a lower grade as well
But she did the donkey work
Came round the outside to win
If she gets the breaks today
I can see her winning again
But she will be held up
From quite a difficult draw
And she will need some luck
Which is why I am split staking
Selection
5.00 Win Bet MY MINERVINA 5/1 +
5.00 Place Bet IMPOSING SUPREME 10/11
Ascot 4.10
5/2 Primo Bacio, 7/2 Soft Whisper, 6/1 Romantic Rival
15/2 Nizaaka, 8/1 Queen Aminatu, 12/1 Barbanera
14/1 Honey Sweet, 16/1 Allayaali, Kaif, 20/1 Love Interest
20/1 Snooze N You Lose, Wilderness Girl, 100/1 Mistrix
200/1 Colombidea.
October Stakes
Fillies Listed race (7f)
3yo's have the best record
They won 17 or the last 19
But 4 year olds are fine too
Twice winning this recently
Unusually this year
4yo's dominate the market
Expect some hidden depth
So not spending long on this
Best Trial race
Since this race went to Ascot
5 of the 10 previous winners
Came via the Sceptre Stakes
Horses aged 3-4
From the Sceptre Stakes
Beaten under 10 lengths there
Have a 5-18 record in them
Winning in the following years
2011 2014 2015 2019 2020
Three horses share this profile
NIZAAKA
ROMANTIC RIVAL
HONEY SWEET
It does put me off a little bit
ROMANTIC RIVAL was 150/1 there
So she misses out of the shortlist
HONEY STREET is a 3yo
She was 33/1 in the best trial
Could shortlist her decided not
Just do not like stall 14 of 14
QUEEN AMINATU flopped last time
Connections blamed the ground there
I felt she ran too quickly after Haydock
She comfortably makes the shortlist
NIZAAKA also completes the shortlist
Wanted to bet both
But the favourite has pulled out
So revised staking
Selection
6.00 Win Bet NIZAAKA 5/1-9/2
4.00 Place Bet QUEEN AMINATU 5/4-11/8
Gowran Park 5.12
2/1 Banbridge, 5/2 Ain't That A Shame, 5/1 Gua Du Large
13/2 Indigo Breeze, 10/1 Whatsavailable, 14/1 Lucky Max
20/1 Fierami, The Tack Room, 100/1 Arctic Skua
100/1 Soloman Lane.
Beginners Chase 2m 4f
This looks a 4 horse race
All 4 of these are positives
So we have to take a guess
One thing crossed my mind
BANBRIDGE is a chase debutant
Thats fine he could easily take it
But he a Cheltenham festival winner
AINT THAT A SHAME was last seen
Fancied for the Kim Muir at Cheltenham
Both come from powerful stables
How do we know they are here to win
Both may be starting the long route
To Cheltenham's Festival last year
May be complete nonsense of course
INDIGO BREEZE has fair chase form
You would like to think if repeating this
He should be able to place at the least
Seems the sensible percentage bet
Selection
INDIGO BREEZE 4/1-9/2
Each Way