Today's Message
Decided like yesterday not suggest a best bet.
Today is message 2 of what I hope will be a run of 12 messages not definitive quite yet
Windsor's this evening "Racing League" card Does not look pleasant Haydock offers us little
Several odds on shots Sedgefield is tiny fields Salisbury offers us three Makes this a 5 race day
Overall feels midweekish
No Best Bet
Salisbury 1.50
5.00 Win Always Fearless 9/1-10/1
5.00 Place Bet Sandy Paradise 9/1-10/1
Had to amend my staking here
Forced into a speculative bet
Not confident as the negatives
Are helped with non runners
If you gave me a free bet
I would stake it this way
4 Win Always Fearless 9/1-10/1
5 Place Always Fearless 10/11 (1-2-3-4)
1 Win Sandy Paradise 9/1-10/1
Always Fearless You can get 4 places
I quite like that place bet
He only has 6 opponents
And it would not shock me
If this geese is in the process
Of slowly turning into a swan
That's just how I would stake
Salisbury 3.20
8.00 Win Bet Juliet Sierra 4/1
2.00 Saver Bet Maria Branwell 4/1
I could happily select either
Win bet on one and a saver
No preference whatsoever
So it may come down to luck
Could reduce the luck factor
By changing one to a place
5.00 Win Juliet Sierra 4/1
5.00 Place Maria Branwell 1/1
Guessing between the pair
But that is the safer option
But officially its win + saver
Sedgefield 3.30
6.00 Win Bet Taxmeifyoucan 5/2
4.00 Win Bet Who's The Guv'Nor 11/8
Feel this race is now spoilt
As the only negative in this
Is drifting leaving less value
And given only 3 horses run
Hard to call anything a negative
Not bothered about this now
Salisbury 3.55
6.50 Win Another Romance 9/2-5/1
3.50 Place Cuban Breeze 2/1
Plan A was an each way bet Simply on Another Romance
But I changed strategies late that has delayed the message
I changed my mind about things for reasons described later on and I win lose or draw no regrets
Sedgefield 4.05
7.00 Win Bet Balkotic 11/4
3.00 Win Thatbeatsbanagher 11/4
Not too sure what I have here
Prices have shortened a little
Optimistic but hard to predict
I probably wont have a bet
If I do it will be interest only
Yesterday's Summary
No best bet but the one I liked
So Beautiful was a non runner
Did not do well with the others
Barnhill Rose placed each way
Band Width a saver lost a neck
Harbanaker managed only fifth
Had to come from a slow start
Just was not a penetrative day
Got beat in too many previews
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Salisbury 1.50
100/30 Maokai, 5/1 Ajrad, 5/1 Buxted Too
11/2 Crystal Casque, 6/1 Sandy Paradise
8/1 Bugle Major, 8/1 Youarenotforgiven
14/1 Just The Man, 16/1 Always Fearless.
Apprentice race 8f
19 past renewals
MAOKAI was a negative
But he is now a non runner
YOURARENOTFORGIVEN
Has also pulled out as well
If you go back to 2007
Every past renewal show
Horses from 7f or shorter
Have a 0-44 record in this
ARJAD has this problem
The only runner up in distance
CRYSTAL CASQUE
Her flaw as a 7 year old mare
Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 1-30 record in 19 renewals
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 4 days
Have a 0-34 record in the race
CRYSTAL CASQUE fails this
BUGLE MAJOR does as well
JUST THE MAN does too
Younger types have done better
BUGLE MAJOR drops down 3f
Can not match him to a winner
JUST THE MAN absent too long
BUXTED TOO could easily win
But just run in 85 days now
The horses with few recent runs
Just 1 in the last couple of months
Have occasionally won this race
But all were far lighter raced than him
This leaves the Hannon Pair
ALWAYS FEARLESS is unsafe
Has looked strangely mediocre
But his last run was not too bad
Ridden by an inexperienced kid
Why is he still in this stable ?
They have not given up on him
SANDY PARADISE is a 3yo
Lots to like but drawn in stall 1
Not a great record with his age
Non runners smooth that over
He has the most recent races
I had an alternative strategy
But non runners killed that
Now I think with 7 runners
May as well split stake them
Selection
5.00 Win ALWAYS FEARLESS 9/1-10/1
5.00 Place Bet SANDY PARADISE 9/1-10/1
Salisbury 3.20
9/2 Juliet Sierra, 5/1 Maria Branwell
11/2 Immortal Beauty, 13/2 Funny Money Honey
8/1 Ivory Madonna, 8/1 Tagline, 9/1 All The Time
9/1 Poetic Union, 10/1 Miami Girl, 14/1 So Sleepy
20/1 Song Of Success, 66/1 Ange De L'Amour.
Dick Poole Stakes
6f Group race (2yo's)
Not done this race in years
Salisbury 6f races
Since 2016
Under 13 runners
Show horses drawn 11-12
Have a 0-33 record in them
POETIC UNION is drawn 12
Widest draw not safe enough
SO SLEEPY is drawn in stall 11
With just 1 run that's a big ask
Horses from 5f races
Have won 4 times since 20013
But none had 6 or more races
FUNNY MONEY HONEY fails this
MIAMI GIRL comes from 5f too
Not matchable with an absence
Horses with over 3 runs
Absent more than 33 days
Have never won this race (0-12)
MIAMI GIRL fails this
TAGLINE also fails this too
SONG OF SUCCESS is unsafe
Coming from a Class 5 Novice
No winners came from nurseries
IMMORTAL BEAUTY does this
IVORY MADONNA looks beatable
ALL THE TIME is shortlistable
Not the best draw in stall 10
MARIA BRANWELL a positive
JULIET SIERRA is a positive
Selection
8.00 Win Bet JULIET SIERRA 4/1
2.00 Saver Bet MARIA BRANWELL 4/1
Sedgefield 3.30
6/4 Who's The Guv'Nor
7/4 Blue Sans, 2/1 Taxmeifyoucan.
Novice Handicap Chase 2m 5f
Only 3 runners
So no angles can be strong
BLUE SANS has a lot to prove
She is having her chase debut
This is a fair way for doing that
But she is very short on races
Just the 1 run in 11 months now
Her two opponents are far safer
And have been busier this year
The obvious strategy in this
Selection
6.00 Win Bet TAXMEIFYOUCAN 5/2
4.00 Win Bet WHO'S THE GUV'NOR 11/8
Salisbury 3.55
11/4 Makarova, 3/1 Another Romance
5/1 Crazy Luck, 6/1 Al Simmo, 6/1 Cuban Breeze
10/1 Four Adaay, 14/1 Mishal Star
20/1 Night Narcissus, 20/1 Rosemary And Thyme.
Lochsong Handicap
Fillies Handicap 6f
Just following some angles
Recent renewals of this race
Show all previous winners
Had between 5 and 16 races
Horses with 17 + runs
Have a 0-38 record since 2006
The following all fail this
ROSEMARY AND THYNE
FOUR ADAAY
CUBAN BREEZE
AL SIMMO
CRAZY LUCK
Every past winner
Going back 25 years
Ran within 54 days
MISHAL STAR does not
She has raced once in months
NIGHT NARCISSUS is opposed
Did not do enough last time
MAKAROVA
ANOTHER PROMISE
Both 3 year olds
MAKAROVA has 37 days off
The only 3yo winners of this
That were absent over 22 days
Dropped down in distance
She does not others like her 0-8
Not a negative just an observation
ANOTHER ROMANCE does this
Rather than go each way
I am going win and place
CUBAN BREEZE is the place
Completely wrong type
But in the last 5 weeks
She has raced 4 times
None of the other horses
Have raced more than once
Selection
6.50 Win Bet ANOTHER ROMANCE 9/2-5/1
3.50 Place Bet CUBAN BREEZE 2/1
Sedgefield 4.05
2/1 Battle Of Benburb, 3/1 Balkotic
4/1 Thatbeatsbanagher, 6/1 Golden Chancer
6/1 Paris Texas.
Handicap Hurdle 3m 3f
BATTLE OF BENBURB a 5yo
Has topweight and 12st weight
Do we want a 5 year old ?
Not really
Statistics show since 2007
In all 3m 3f handicaps here
Horses aged 5 are just 2-42
The 2 winners had less weight
Were far less exposed than him
If you go back 25 years
No 5 year old has won here
With more than 15 hurdle runs
BATTLE OF BENBURB has 18
Can not be sure he will stay
His sire has never had a winner
That has won beyond 3m before
On the flip side of this
A small field and poor opposition
He is fit and in form after a victory
Obviously make his chance easier
But in principle a 5yo with topweight
Would rather find an alternative
PARIS TEXAS also has 12st as well
Throw in 105 days absence as well
No hurdle runs for 4 years now
There are better alternative options
GOLDEN CHANCER is beatable
What stops me being more confident
He did in this last year after a bad run
Feel there are better options this year
But we can not make him a negative
Could make him one of two £2 savers
And go with a £6 win bet covering 3
But came down on this simpler option
Selection
7.00 Win Bet BALKOTIC 11/4
3.00 Win THATBEATSBANAGHER 11/4
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Saturday
Early thoughts
Haydock 2.55
Old Borough Cup Handicap 1m 6f
3/1 Soulcombe 8/1 Contact 8/1 Euchan Glen
8/1 Evaluation 10/1 Rajinsky 16/1 Calling The Wind
16/1 Diamond Bay 16/1 Earlofthecotswolds
16/1 Going Gone 16/1 Taipan 16/1 Double Cherry
16/1 Amtiyaz 20/1 Charging Thunder 20/1 El Picador
20/1 Global Heat 20/1 Golden Flame 20/1 Reshoun
20/1 Haveyoumissedme 20/1 Sir Rumi 20/1 Dark Jedi
20/1 Morando 20/1 Island Brave 20/1 Alounak
33/1 Kihavah 40/1 Haliphon 50/1 Old Port
SOULCOMBE is favourite
Will see him as a positive
But 20th in the weights
Will he get a run in the race
Will he get a good draw too ?
And no horse has won this
Coming from the Melrose (0-4)
I hope he does not run myself
As he is short and hard to judge
The long absent winner
Won with 57 days absence
The following fail this stat
CALLING THE WIND
ALOUNAK
RAJINSKY
EARLOFTHECOTSWOLDS
MORANDO
DOUBLE CHERRY
Horses with 9st 10lbs or more
Have not won this race (0-14)
Concerned about the following
CALLING THE WIND
RESHOUN
EUCHAN GLEN
ALOUNAK
Horses with 9st 1lbs or more
Absent more than 22 days
Have a 0-28 record in this
Several of the above fail this
GLOBAL HEAT also fails this
CONTACT also fails this
Only just we could forgive him
But his sire would be the worry
Never bred a winner beyond 12f
Must be a stamina doubt with him
Few winners drop in trip to win
Horses aged 3-4-5
Coming from 2m + races
Have a 0-41 record in this
The following fail this
DIAMOND BAY
GOING GONE
GOLDEN FLAME
No past winners
Were aged 8 or more
EUCHAN GLEN fails this
As do others already mentioned
ISLAND BRAVE last years winner does
Several of these will be balloted out
Going to leave it here for now
There will be a draw bias
Need to know how many run
Not yet rejected
3/1 Soulcombe
8/1 Evaluation
16/1 Taipan
16/1 Amtiyaz
20/1 Charging Thunder
20/1 El Picador
20/1 Haveyoumissedme
20/1 Sir Rumi
20/1 Dark Jedi
33/1 Kihavah
40/1 Haliphon
I have 5:30 WINDSOR
Aramis Grey looks good in speed form and cd winner
Saleymm cause Dubai Poet to short and won two his Class3 previously
4:15 HAYDOCK
and speculative 4:56 SALISBURY
Carp Kid